What are the current odds that a nuclear weapon will be set off in a major American, European or Asian city in the next five years? Ten years?
Accidentally or through some act of war?
Accidentally? Nil. There are active failsafes in weapon design that prevent them from going off unless properly authorized.
Through an act of war? Depends on the weapon: By a government-sanctioned weapon? Again, nil, by reason of above. By a terrorist device? Slim to none: The machinery and materials needed to build a fully functioning device are very difficult to obtain. Sure, you can build a bomb to spread radioactive material, but to actually obtain the technology to produce critical mass on the order of even Hiroshima or Nagasaki is now outside the realm of undetectable means.
Point being, if someone tried to do something like that, we’d have a good clue something was up. . .
Tripler
Kinda like we know Iraq is up to something.
I seem to recall some very nervous folks around the time Pakistan and India were toe to toe about 18 months back. I’d place my guess on the government sanctioned incident somewhat above nil.
I hsve to go with Tripler’s request for clarification.
Accidentally? Slight but conceivable. Actually, I can imagine a nuclear response being triggered through an accidental alarm (i.e. in the days of the Cold War, some electronic glitch suggests the U.S. is under massive Soviet attack, as in this case described by Cecil). The detonations would be deliberate, but the circumstances that led to their use would be an accident that got out of control. Since the collapse of the USSR and the general relaxing of the American Strategic Air Command, this is pretty damn unlikely.
As for other nuclear conflicts, Pakistan/India always looks promising.
Could an atomic weapon of any kind (i.e. fission or radiological) be detonated as an act of terrorism? Your guess is as good as mine. The best person to ask would a member of the National Security Agency (assuming you could find one, wink wink).
A national atomic program is expensive, but if Pakistan could pull it off, I’m sure almost anyone could, including Iraq and North Korea.
See Nuclear War: Inevitable or Preventable?
Where Will the Next War Be? (FRom 1992. Interesting perspectives with ten years of hindsight.)