I have a bad feeling about it also and she shouldn’t have made the endorsement. It could only hurt her chances and not help her.
Sherrill has a solid lead in the polls at least, but not as high as it should be running against a no charisma politician like Ciattarelli.
I from '08 to '15 I was pretty much right on every election. Then I was wrong a bunch. It can happen suddenly.
From a cursory search through the board, you were right on last year’s election, but a few years before that you were saying AOC was intent upon destroying the Democratic party. So your recent track record might not be quite so clean as you recall.
So polls continued their existing trend but it’s Mamdani’s fault now somehow?
Americans consistently hate the “socialist” label, but love actual socialist policies.
Americans say this, but the “socialist” policies they bring up are things like price caps on drugs, $15 an hour minimum wage, social security or medicade, and union protections.
The race doesnt appear to be “tight” at all.
The race in question appears to be the NJ gubernatorial campaign, where the Dem’s numbers went from +8 in mid-July to +8 in mid-September, clearly damaged by her endorsement of Mamdani.
Oh, okay, I thought this thread was about NYC mayor?
It is. If you go back and read the thread you will note that the context is the effect of Sherill’s endorsement of Mamdani on her own race.
About time and good riddance.
For those who can’t read that NYT link:
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/28/eric-adams-ends-reelection-campaign-00583690
I wonder if someone in the anti-Mamdani group offered him a cushy job.
I actually believe the stated reason, which is that he wasn’t getting enough funding (between not qualifying for state money and not getting a lot of donations.)
Maybe he (Adams) will be the new ambassador to Turkey?
The race continued to tighten up to the point that it’s now either a dead heat or she is losing. It started as a double digit lead.
I’m finding this analysis of the poll results: Latest Poll Shows Huge Shift In NJ's Governor's Race | Newark, NJ Patch
There’s a lot of talk about tying Sherrill to the current unpopular Democratic governor, a lot of talk about economic woes, about threats to democracy, about housing costs.
Implying that Sherrill’s in trouble because she endorsed Mamdani seems like quintessential post hoc ergo propter hoc and pretty tangential to this thread.
Which is why I neither said or implied that was the reason why. I said her endorsement was being used as a weapon against her. Which was true then and continues to be true. I said that the race was tightening up which was true then and remains true today. I also clearly stated it was not the only factor. There are other factors in play that I would discuss in another thread but if you were following the election at all you would know the endorsement is being used against her daily.
“Used as a weapon against her” doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a net negative. Pretty much anything a Democrat does (and much of what they don’t do) is going to be “used as a weapon against them”. Polling models make predictions based on turnout of the various age cohorts and other demographics (which I’m sure you’re aware of) – if her endorsement of Mamdani energizes young voters (and other progressive groups) to come out in her favor more than otherwise (and more than pollster’s models are accounting for), then it could counteract any negative in other demographics.
What Democrats need is charismatic fighters, IMO. Issues – even the scary “socialism” – matters far less than charisma and the appearance of fighting, IMO. So many Democrats and other progressive voters are tired of voting for those who appear as boring, run-of-the-mill, institutional, insider-y, do-nothings.
If you’re suggesting it’s not “the only factor,” you’re clearly suggesting that it’s “a factor.” But you’ve offered no evidence that it’s “a factor,” only that Republicans are attacking her for it, just as they’re attacking her for every single thing she does, because that’s what Republicans do.
It’s pretty common for moderate and conservative Democrats to attack progressives for anything they can, regardless of the merits of the attack. This tactic of “Sherrill’s endorsement of Mamdani is a factor in her losing her lead” is par for the course, and I’m not willing to accept it as a valid attack on progressives without stronger evidence.