Romney is a 10th level mage, but he’s used all of his high level spells for the day. He’s got nothing left but acid arrow and feather fall. He only has 10 hit points left and the rest of his adventuring party is dead. The lich is in the next room.
Obama’s at the tavern. He’s at full health and surrounded by his high-level adventuring companions. There’s a single kobold outside, but he is very, very angry.
Romney’s down by 7, on Obama’s 30, third down and 10, with 10 seconds to go. He has an 8% chance of winning according to Silver.
Looking at Silver’s updated odds, that’s looking like my best analogy right now.
If I read your model correctly, though, it doesn’t look like there’s an adjustment for batting order. Expected runs are probably a good deal higher with the 3-hitter coming up than with the 8-hitter coming up.
God help me, I laughed.
Election fever has made me delirious.
Teams are tied, Obama is reaching for the snitch while Romney is over at the other end of the field trying to avoid blodgers.
Looks like your messiah got the candle.
Checkmate.
Can Romney come from last place to first with a hole in his boat, not enough gas, and only a hundred yards to go?
Apparently not.