I already thought Bush would win by a tiny margin, but now it is pretty much guaranteed. He may even get the popular vote now.
Two reasons:
Bush was losing ground fast on the issue of Iraq. Public opinion of the war getting ever lower. Nobody felt threatened by Iraq, and it seemed stupid that we were letting so many of our soldiers die there.
This will largely overshadow Iraq until after the election, saving Bush from his most likely downfall. Only another well publicized and amazing disaster in Iraq can hurt Bush now.
2. Bin Laden does seem to say things similar to F-911. Thus people will see him attacking Bush, and they will vote for Bush to get back at Bin Laden. Never mind that Bin Laden must know that he is helping Bush by attacking him - people won’t see that.
I’ve already seen it beginning. Just turned on the TV and saw a Bush supporter mentioning how Bin Laden seems to “prefer” one candidate. I have absolutely no doubt that the spin will make the country believe Bin Laden wants Kerry, and thus there is no chance of Kerry being elected.
I hope to God that I am wrong, and that people will be able to ignore the tape and vote as they would have without it - but I have a sick feeling that it is going to tip the scales in Bush’s favor.
Be kinda sweet if Al-Jazeera would release the whole tape. They’ve only showed 7 mins worth of excerpts out of a 20 min tape. Hard to speculate on what the effects of the tape will be and what they tell us about OBL when we know less then half the story.
Also, while the tape is deffinately recent, we don’t know when it was given to Al-Jazeera. This could be their Oct. suprise and not Bin Ladin’s, if they’ve been holding it back for a month or two to wait just before the election, and then just released the anti-Bush bits.
That was my first thought - how could voters forget how Bush shrugged off Bin Laden in the infamous footage where he said he didn’t think about him much (parphrasing). But, then again - for some reason, voters seem to believe Bush would defend us against terrorism better than Kerry, so I starting wondering whether the tape might give Bush an edge. I’m confused as to how a voter could deny the fact that the guy that took down the towers is still out there, and not be concerned that he’s not our #1 target. But, that’s just me.
I think the tape is a slam dunk for Bush. The Bush camp has been very skillful at the whole “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” and “if you’re not with us, you’re against us” kind of rhetoric.
A lot of people will see OBL try to push the US one way and their immediate emotional reaction is to push back the opposite way as hard as they can. OBL bashes Bush? I’ll show that SOB and go out and vote for him. To some extent, that was my immediate gut reaction too, though I’ve since regained my senses
[tin foil hat]
Some of the stuff in there just seems totally out of left field and almost seems like it is designed to diffuse some pretty standard criticism of the Bush administration. No way any of the Dems will attack the “my little goat” debacle or the Patriot Act now that OBL is on record. And the whole my little goat reference just seemed… odd and out of place.
Also, every other OBL tape that came out since 9/11 immediately had statements from the intelligence services saying that they were checking the authenticity to ensure it’s not a fake. No such statements on this one - only a State Department plea not to air the tape.
On top of that, suddenly OBL is in a well-lit studio, nicely dressed, etc.
The whole thing just seems a little too clean and a little too conveniently timed. Could this be a GOP plant?
[/tin foil hat]
OK, I don’t really see the conspiracy as even a longshot possibility, but it says something very sad about the current state of politics in the US (and my personal opinion of the trustworthiness of the current administration) that I could even imagine such a thing.
I heard a brief snippet on the radio, I think it was BBC, about how there were indications (either in the content of the tape or by al Jazeera) that the tape was recorded as little as a week or two ago. IF this is true, it seems like it would be a relatively safe point for Kerry to seize on (Kerry’s going to have to be really careful with how he tries to leverage this against Bush - if he gives the Bush team even a tiny chance to paint him as ‘siding with OBL’, they’ll do it, and Kerry’s toast).
Specifically, if bin Laden is in a position where he can have a tape smuggled to the outside world, he is presumably equally able to smuggle hard-copy communications, plans, whatever out into the broader al Qaeda network. This seems to go against the Bush Administration’s claims that bin Laden has been contained and rendered ineffectual. Presumably, he’s been able to do this for some time.
This all hinges on a physical tape being smuggled out of bin Laden’s hiding place, of course.
At any rate, I’d be interested to hear more about how the tape got in to al Jazeera’s hands. Did it come via Pakistan, or Kabul, or what?
Hmm, that is persuasive. Only one major terrorist attrocity killing thousands of people in the US during his presidency. Does anyone have any stats on how this compares to other modern day US presidents? I’m assuming that they were far less successful in this area than Bush has been…
My point, which was not phrased at all well, wasn’t so much that the administration made no representations about the tape’s authenticity. In the past, the administration’s line has been pretty constant along the lines of “we’ll need to take this back and analyze the voice and the video, have multiple translations, etc.” You know, actually study the recording before determining it is authentic. In this case it seems like they watched the tape once and said “Yup, looks pretty good to me.” That is, unless they’ve had it for a few days already…
So even outside the tin foil hat world of “The tape is a republican plant,” it seems to me that the Bush administration thinks the tape is beneficial to Bush or else they’d be analyzing it for authenticity until well into the election recount.
I have to reconsider Bush’s statement from last night. He played on the theme of influence and intimidation… even though Osama’s message didn’t urge anything about our elections. In other words, it’s a reference to Madrid even without any explicit context. That doesn’t seem like a spontaneous statement of standing up against terrorism: it seems instead calculated to ring the Pavlovian bell right wing pundits set up with Madrid that we must do the exact opposite of what the terrorists purportedly want.
I don’t think it’s going to help Bush. If it had happened on Monday, it might have. There is plenty of time for people to go… wait a minute… Osama is happy and healthy and OUR country is a mess?
Kerry’s final campaign theme should be: WHY IS THIS FREAKSHOW STILL ALIVE?
This is pretty telling. Here’s Dick Morris and Sean Hannity on October 23rd:
So first they were trying to spin the lack of terrorist threats as a sign that terrorists want Kerry in office, and now they are trying to spin a plethora of terrorist threats as a sign that the terrorists want Kerry, using exactly the opposite logic.
Here’s Dick Morris again on THE FACTOR:
Now of course, all the same right wing pundits claim that Osama’s making noise in order to scare Americans into voting for the only guy who seems seriously interested in finding and killing him.
I didn’t realize until this morning that Al-J only released a portion of the tape, saying that the editted out the “propoganda” parts. One wonders… was the rest of tape critical of Arab countries, and therefore considered propaganda? I’m speculating, of course, but it seems like a reasonable possibility. Anyone know anything definitive about this?
