You nailed it right there I think buddy. 
That was also kinda my point. If they haven’t thought about it enough already, they aren’t apt to between now and then. They’re waiting for a “sign”.
Like I’ve said many times, I hope I’m wrong.
“The biggest argument against democracy is to talk to the average voter for five minutes.”
Winston Churchill
I think, at this late date, that the fiasco of Al-Quaqa is affecting the election more and the Newsweek poll is an “outie”. Taking into account how the polls were worse for Gore in 2000, and he still got the popular vote, I can say that Bush is in trouble.
I believe the reason that Bush polls so much higher than Kerry on security and terrorism is not because people think Bush is particulary good at it, but because they totally distrust Kerry’s ability to stay the course.
That’s certainly the way I feel about it. If the Democrats had nominated someone like Lieberman or Gephardt, Bush wouldn’t have the lead he does in security. But deep down, people think that Kerry may just cut and run when the going gets tough.
The Osama effect will show up in the next round of polls, if it exists. The only leading indicator we have so far are the electronic markets, which can respond faster than the polls.
Here’s the IEM Presidential price graph. It shows a sharp spike upwards for Bush immediately following OBL’s little speech.
Over at Tradesports, Bush has gone up 2.5 points since yesterday, and the gap is now 55/45.
Perhaps this is too fine a point, Sam, but what you got there is people saying how they anticipate Americans will react. Over at the NYT, front page has an article about how most people seem unaffected one way or the other…
I think persons expecting a big reaction to the tape have made a miscalculation. By shifting the emphasis to Saddam, Bush made him Boogieman Numero Uno. Of late, they’ve been hyping this Zarqawi fellow as the Big Enchilada.
Remember how much we hated Khomeini? Qaddaffy Duck? Seems we can only handle one villain at a time.
Anecdotes. Certainly no more informative than the on-line betters, and probably less.
It only needs to be a small reaction in one key state, like Ohio, to tilt the election one way or the other.
Wow!! I have to wonder if that is a transcription error, although it would be one hell of a typo. Strange that King never calls him on it. Wouldn’t any reporter worth his salt ask for a clarification or elaboration?
This is just astonishing…
What’s so astonishing about it?
Well, do you think Rove planned the latest ObL tape? Is **Reeder **posing as Walter Cronkite these days?
I have to think that the Old Cronk was chuckling as he said it, and that chuckle got lost in the transcription.
I think it was be his MO to sit on a video like this for a few months and then leak it just before the elction. He may or may not have faked the video (nothing would surprise me with this White House) but the timing has Rove’s oily thumbprints all over it.
I hadn’t realized that Osama was in the habit of sending his tapes to the Whitehouse. Guess you learn something new everyday…
Who knows where the White House got it? That’s not the point. The point is that the timing reeks of Rove. YMMV.
Dammit, Dio, how many times I gotta tell you? When you fold the tin foil, you must fold it parallel to true magnetic north! Otherwise, the polarity of telepathic rays remains ungobulable!
I don’t doubt for a minute the ObL has a motive in his timing. The motive is to attract attention, which attracts recruits. His message isn’t so much “Bush can’t protect you” so much as “nobody can protect you”! If this were a Karl Rove special, no such ambiguity would exist, subtle they ain’t. Such a message would flat out endorse Kerry, something like “Elect Kerry or feel my wrath!”
As well, I also suspect this was intended to show that little bitch Al-Zarqawi just who the Big Dog really is.
There’s absolutely no mileage whatsoever in this. If you’re offering this as any type of credible theory, then let’s see your evidence. If you just want to aim more vitriol at Bush, there are any number of Pit threads for that pupose.
I never asserted it as fact, I just said it wouldn’t surprise me. They have been known to do things like steal elections and lie to start wars, after all.
But in retrospect, what 'lucy says makes sense. ObL is probably just waving his dick at Al-Zarqawi (not to mention Bush).
It still wouldn’t surprise me if Karl Rove if had something else up his sleeve for monday, though. He’ll probably plant crack on Kerry’s bus or something.
Well, thanks a bunch for that mental image! But now that you mention it, are Muslim men circumscribed? Circumspect? Whatever-that-is, you know, ten percent off the top?
Yep, and Al Jazeera sat on it for months too. I get so tired of their constant fawning at the feet of the White House.
Muslim males are indeed…um…edited…before puberty. You may find it amusing to know that there is a Hadith, supposedly adirect quote from Mohammed himself, which states that Abraham circumcised himself at the age of 80…with a hachet. I guess because God told him to. And this after the Isaac thing. It makes me wonder if Satan wasn’t up there making bets with God about whether Abraham would ever say no to anything.
“Watch this, I’ll tell him to cut off part of his own pecker with a hatchet. He’ll do it.”
“You’re on. Fifty bucks.”
Oh yes, if only the Democrats had nominated Gephardt, I am sure the Republican Attack Machine and Sam Stone would be singing a very different tune. Right! And, I also believe in the tooth fairy.
Admittedly, with a super-hawk like Lieberman, they might have more trouble in painting him the way they want although even then I am dubious about whether it would have stopped them from doing so.
Kind of funny how sort of disappointed we all are going to be if the great Karl Rove doesn’t unleash some sort master stroke today or tomorrow. Been predicting and worrying about it so long and all. It’s a little late in the game at this point to release something and have it perculate into the collective consiousness. Hell if he releases something tomorrow, it won’t even be an Oct. suprise.