Deltasigma, you are the avataqr of “a little bit of kniowledge can be a dangerous thing” It not only makes you look bad, it makes everyone that is on your side of the argument look bad. So please, get off my side of the argument or at least stop being such a weaselly dick.
Here Deltasigma makes an incredibly arrogant statement and accuses SDMB of financial illiteracy.
So I interject and point out that he is ignorant about one of the most fundemantal building blocks of our financial markets, the treasury auction. It seems that deltasigma believes (or at least used to before be retroconned his position) that treasury auctions work like bond markets where you bid a price you are willing to pay for an existing bond. This is clearly wrong and I point this out to him here:
He proceeds to rebutt the facts by citing to some site that is talking about bid coverage ratios (using an example in Euros) but doesn’t support anythign he has to say. I proceed to provide links from treasury.gov and he keeps isnisting that he was right all along (frequently by retroconning what he had been saying to mean something else).
Then he continues to make even more arrogant and incorrect statements. and several people interject to tell deltasigma that his arrogance is doing nothing for his arguments.
I think I’ve explaijned the treasury auction process so that even a bright high school student could understand it but Deltasigma just doesn’t get it (or doesn’t want to get it). I don’t know how I can make the facts any clearer.
What the fuck is wrong with you deltasigma? Are you really this atupid and arrogant or are you just trolling at this point (we can accuse people of trolling on the pit right?)?
Which the OP posted more or less the same thing in. Deltasigma is indeed both obnoxious and ignorant, but I don’t think we really need two separate threads about essentially the same issue.
Wow. That thread devolved from “Hey, whatcha think about this new TV show?” to “You guys suck cuz you say my fave show sucks and that proves you’re ignorant” in record time. I kept thinking “How old is this kid?”
Is atupid the total lack of tupid? If so, he could use some tupid.
I’ve Pitted DS in at least two Pit threads where he’s not mentioned in the title. So if Mr. Sigma feels like an underachiever because he’s not in the elite group of Dopers whose names appear in five or more Pit thread titles he can blame me.
Here’s a post from a thread where I finally learned for sure that DS was a pretentious and ignorant blowhard:
Each of the two sentences here is mistaken:
(1) OP not only didn’t want DS’s recommended Poisson distribution, he did not want “something like” it. He wanted “something completely different.”
(2) If DS knew he was out of his depth on this topic, why did he post at all?
Sorry, but I don’t want to have to take a tutorial in the freaking bond market in order to understand a pitting. Can this be dumbed down for me, like to the level of an airline safety placard?
I’m not a bond trader, but here’s how I understand it (hopefully I will be corrected if I’m wrong):
US Treasury Notes and Bonds work thusly: You give the Government the face value (say $100). They give you a piece of paper that entitles you to a small payment every so often (like every 6 months) based on an interest rate. At the end of the bond’s “period”, the government gives you $100 and takes their paper back. Thus your ‘profit’ is the sum of all those small payments.
Now, when they auction them, they could do this one of two ways:
We want to sell you a $100 note paying .5% interest for 2 years, how much will you give us for it? You might say $98 or you might say $100.50 depending on what overall interest rates are doing. I believe that this is exactly how they sell Treasury Bills. Under this system, the Government won’t know how much they’re going to get from the auction until it’s over.
Alternatively, they could say, we’re selling a $100 note with interest for 2 years. How much interest will it take to get you to buy it? You might bid .25% or you might bid 5%. Under this system, the Government know exactly how much money they’re going to get, but not how much they have to pay every six months until the auction is over.
Now, under both these systems, you’re really bidding on how much it will cost the Government to get your money, but they are different models.
If I understand the conflict, deltasigma seems to think that Notes and Bonds are sold using Method 1 and Damuri Ajashi thinks they use Method 2.
I probably got all that wrong and will be subject to ridicule, but oh well, I was bored.
Basically correct. Deltasigma incorrectly assumed that terasury auctions priced bonds the way that bond markets price bonds shortly after mocking the financial ignorance of the SDMB. How atupid can you get?
A couple of nits:
Auctions for debts of one year or less do not have coupon payments so they are issued at original issue discount (you pay $X today for face value at maturity). So when you bid on the yield on issues of one year or less, you are bidding on the discount. This was not the subject of the argument with Deltasigma but if Deltasigma ever figured this out he would probably have pretended that this was what he was talking about all along.
Debt with original maturities over a year are auctioned under your method 2 with the caveat that there are rounding conventions so that treasuries will be issued with coupons in 1/8% increments and in order to get the correct yield, they have to adjust the price (so if you bid 1.15%, the coupon gets rounded down to 1.125% but you only have to pay 99% of face value to end up with the yield of 1.15%). Deltasigma latched onto this rounding convention to try and recast his argument to say something he wasn’t saying before.
He engages in big lie type debating, He just keeps repeating that he is right and hopes that people don’t know enough to figure out that he is wrong. He needs to get himself some tupid.
So just out of curiosity, could I keep submitting bids for say $10,000 worth of notes at 25% yield and just hope that someday there’s a spare $10K left over and I get my windfall? Or are there people who agree to match the low yield bid that would insure I never get my note?
Without getting into the issue of DS specifically (I’ve not read that other thread) I think this is a problem with complex issues of this sort, about which not many people are well educated.
The guy who knows what he is talking about explains at length why the other guy is wrong, complete with helpful links, to the point that anyone who is either familiar with these issues or willing to read through it carefully and look up the links will be convinced. Problem is that this is a minority of the people reading the thread. Most of the readership - including those who post as well - can’t be bothered with complex and lengthy matters that they are not already familiar with. You might think such people wouldn’t bother reading that type of thread to begin with, but you would be wrong, because frequently these complex and weighty issues are relevant to other simpler issues that the more ignorant people are very interested in - like whether their favorite politician is a genius/hero or fool/villian, or whether some economic policy that they like for ideological reasons is sound.
Of course, most of these people tend to make up their mind about matters of this sort based on how it impacts their preferred stance on the issues of their concern, but the thing is that you want to have some hope of at least reaching the less biased among them. Plus there are also some non-ideologues who may be reading for other matters of interest in the thread.
But it’s very difficult to reach these people with lengthy and complex arguments and links. They won’t read them. To the extent that they’re not making up their minds based on ideology, it’s going to be based on writing style and/or what the majority or their preferred fellow posters think. So you can get away with Big Lie a lot more than you might think possible. Which makes weaselly posters reluctant to abandon their positions even in the face of the facts - because as long as they can come up with glib comebacks, there’s a part of the readership which will think they’re right, or at least not think they’re wrong.
Well, there are these things called primary dealers who are obligated to bid at auctions. Their combined bids are generally enough to cover the amount of treasuries put up for auction several times over. This is not to say that you can’t get small spikes from time to time. We got a short term spike during the shutdown where yield went up tenfold on some short-term securities (from .03% to .3%). But if you ever get 25%, its because the world is about to end.
