I’ve been speculating about this in various threads for a while now, but as things move along it seems like it deserves its own space.
Republican side. It’s a four way race. The Pubs have some significant winner take all primaries and of them Guillianni will likely a few.
“Front-runner” is over-optimistic of his camp I think, but getting enough to stay a factor seems likely. Call him 10-15% of the delegates.
McCain and Romney might both keep slogging at it through “March madness” anyway, each probably coming out with 30% of the delegates more or less (McCain more, Romney less). McCain may start getting some momentum after SC but I wouldn’t be sure.
And Huckabee will stay in it picking up 15 to 20%.
A real possibility of no plurality.
The Dem side. Obama will go into Super Tuesday likely bouncing off a sizable win in SC. Given the way Democratic delegates are allocated (see for example that Obama got more delegates out of Nevada than HRC did despite losing the plurality and currently leads the delegate count dspite his winning only one state outright), it could stay neck and neck even if he loses the popular vote in the big states like California and New York. Between the ones that Edwards will pick up and the 20% of delegates that are unpledged unelected superdelegates, neither of them may have over 50% of the delegates and be neck and neck in total delegates and popular vote overall. That could leave Edwards as kingmaker or the superdelegates deciding the nominee in newly smoke-free back rooms. And some bitter arguments over whether to seat delegates from MI and FLA that will have gone basically uncontested to HRC.
How likely are these possibilities for either side?