Odds of a government shutdown in December?

In My Humble Opinion
1

This seems like the right forum: it’s political, but not relating to elections, hardly a ‘Great’ debate, and nowhere near Pit material.

Back in September, the two parties agreed to an extension of the government’s spending authority through midnight on December 8.

Josh Barro of Business Insider makes a good argument that we’ll probably have a shutdown. Vox made a similar argument back in October, and it doesn’t seem like the ground has shifted much since then.

Basically, the Dems want a long-term DACA fix, they want CHIP reauthorized, they want CSR subsidies restored, and they want Planned Parenthood funded on the same footing as any other health provider. Their only leverage is to refuse to pass any funding extension that doesn’t do these things.

In addition, if the Dems approve even a temporary funding extension, it gives the GOP more time to try to pass their tax cut bill. (If the government’s shut down, and the GOP’s working on tax cuts for the rich and for big corporations, rather than trying to reopen the government, it’s not gonna go well for them. They really need the government to be open to work on Tax Deform.)

But their base doesn’t want the GOP to give in to the Dems on DACA and Planned Parenthood especially, though they might be OK with CHIP and CSR subsidies. So the GOP’s between a rock and a hard place, where agreement with the Dems means capitulation, while the Dems’ incentives are to shut government down if the GOP doesn’t capitulate.

IME, the odds are always against a government shutdown in any individual instance. There were a large number of almost-shutdowns during the last 6 years of Obama’s Presidency, but only one actual shutdown. But this one’s looking better than most.

Three weeks to go - really three and a half, since December 8 is a Friday, and nobody really notices if the government’s shut down over the weekend - and I’d say the odds are something like 2-1 against us waking up on Monday, December 11 with the government closed.

What say you?

2

It seems to me, a government shutdown is all theater anyway - don’t they always give back pay for the time it was shut down?? So what’s the point, other than screwing with people?

But considering the current administration, I can see them shutting it all down. Merry Christmas.

The last shutdown (2013?) cost me a temp job. I don’t see it affecting me this time, and we know it’s all about me. :wink:

3

Free vacation!!! :smiley:

4

Civil service gets back pay. Contractors do not.

More specifically, contractors may or may not based on the benevolence of their companies; the companies cannot recover those costs.

5

I believe civil servants are not guaranteed back pay. They did get paid after the last shutdown, but Congress had to act to make it happen.

6

I know back pay isn’t guaranteed, but it still happens.

I forgot about contractors - strange, because I was working for a contractor in '13, tho instead of losing pay, I lost the job.

In any event, I’ve pretty much given up trying to predict anything about the government any more. It’s just too weird in DC.

7

I would guess a 30% chance of a shutdown.

But if the tax reform bill fails a Senate vote, I’d put it at a 10% chance of a shutdown. Republicans will become desperate to avoid taking on another failure that can be blamed on incompetence.

8

I think the odds are higher than 30% if they pass the tax bill and lower than 10% if they fail, but I agree with your general idea.

9

But if they shut down the government rather than compromise with the Democrats, would the Republican base really see that as a failure?

10

Historically, yes. But the political system was different then. If a shutdown occurs, I give it 2-1 odds backpay for federal workers will not happen.

As a fed, I’m all for a shutdown. Seriously. But let’s do it correctly. Furlough TSA so all commercial air travel stops. Furlough SSA so all social security payments stop. Furlough the USDA food inspectors so all meat and dairy products sales end. Maybe, just maybe, America will wake up and see what is already occurring in the federal government right now that’s damaging this country, some of it irreparable damage.

11

There’s parts of the base that sees nuclear war with North Korea as #MAGA, so I’m not sure the question is really relevant.

12

It’s all just passing IOUs back and forth. The economy is an illusion.