Is there a formula for determining, with some degree of accuracy, an individuals chances of dying in the next five years (with the exception of course of accidental death)?
Excluding accidental death, the chances are:
100% if you kill yourself
0% if you don’t.
Heembo
I do not believe that there is a formula as such. Actuarial tables are based on collecting large numbers of figures on life and mortality and slicing them and dicing them (and adding some paprika) to determine that if you are (sex)(race)(income level)(living in)(marital status)(lots of etc.) and you are likely to engage in (types of hobbies)(types of sports)(types of occupation)(types of sex)(types of eating habits)(lots of etc.), then you will likely live X more years.
Dex is an actual actuarial and might shed more light on this.
google is your friend:
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/datawh/statab/unpubd/mortabs.htm#life