It seems like an interesting stat. From the little I read, it takes out YAC, so it likely favors downfield throws. It will be interesting to see how well it works. So far I like it 'cause Rodgers is elite and Cutler is listed as “below average”. It’s worth it just for that.
I don’t like the removal of YAC. It assumes that the WR is responsible for his YAC, as if the only way to get YAC is to break tackles or otherwise do something specific to that talent of that player. But often YAC is the result of the QB picking the right player based on the coverage and hitting a player in stride. I wonder if there are stats out there comparing the deviation of YAC stats between quarterbacks based on skill comparing deviation of YAC stats between WRs based on skill. I woud suspect who’s responsible for those extra yards is split roughly down the middle on average.
Interesting. Freeman and Bradford are the 2 that jump out to me as Whaaa?
Freeman has been quietly pretty great, considering all factors.
Remember that those tiers are based on 2010. Freeman was great in 2010 and Bradford, while exceeding expectations and showing a ton of potential, was just average overall. And the formula does take into account game situation in some way, and I seem to remember Freeman leading a lot of wins in the 4th quarter. I’m surprised McCoy was ahead of Bradford though.
People are in arms about it because it factors in sacks. I’m hesitant about the stat because it seems like it may require a lot of subjective analysis to chart it, and there isn’t any transparent way of checking that.
But anything that labels Roethlisberger as above average gets my vote. You’d think after finally getting over the value of “Wins” in baseball, we’d learn that Super Bowl Wins just don’t mean very much in the value of a QB. But doggoneit if Roethlisberger doesn’t have them intangibles that willed him to carry his team to that Super Bowl over the Seahawks. Breathtaking performance! A TRUE WINNAR!
Bradford’s numbers were excellent for a rookie, but pretty poor overall. He had a 76.5 rating under the existing formula, mostly due to a league-low 6 yards per attempt. Peyton Manning had a 72 rating as a rookie, but hasn’t been below 84 since (and has only been under 90 twice). Matt Ryan had an 87 as a rookie. Bradford also only had 18 TDs to 15 picks, and the new system, like the old one, appears to weigh TD/INT ratio heavily.
Which brings us to Josh Freeman, who threw 25 touchdowns to only 6 picks, a better ratio than anyone except Tom Brady (36/4).
The “well above average” quarterbacks last year were: Brady, Peyton, Ryan, Vick, Rodgers and Brees. The top 6 quarterbacks in conventional passer rating last year were Brady, Rivers, Rodgers, Vick, Roethlisberger and Freeman.
It looks like the new system weighs yards per attempt less heavily than the old; Rivers’ most eye-popping stat last year was his 8.7 YPA. Matt Ryan’s was his pretty poor 6.5 YPA (by way of comparison, Chad Henne managed a 6.7). One drops out of the top six, the other gets in.
I’ve often said that yards per attempt is the single most important statistic for a quarterback. Guys who throw downfield are penalized in metrics which take completion percentage into account. Yards per attempt grades everyone more fairly, since it takes into account both downfield throwing and completion percentage.
Roethlisberger’s traditional rating is boosted by his good 8.2 YPA, and he drops out of the top 6 too. To me, it looks like this system is a step in the wrong direction.
The move that jumps out to me is Eli Manning - 17th under the traditional formula but in the top 8 under the new one. Manning threw a ton of TDs last year but also topped the league in interceptions. His strongest stat was sack percentage (tied for league low at 16). Not coincidentally, Peyton also jumped, from 10th to the top 6, and he was also sacked 16 times.
ETA: I’m guessing the new system also takes 1st down percentage into account, which also hurts Bradford. He was last in the league, other than Jimmy Clausen.
It doesn’t necesarily even weigh TD vs ints directly - it’s probably just TDs per pass attempt and ints per pass attempt, but since they’re measuring the same sample, it effectively becomes a ratio between them.
And agreed about YPA - it is, by far, the easiest way to measure the general effectiveness of a QB, if you only could have one number. People talk about completion percentage all the time, but fuck if I’ve ever cared how many 3 yard flare routes an offense runs.
The first half of the season, he got saddled with at least one bad int a game where a perfectly thrown pass hit his receiver in the hands or numbers, bounced out and got picked off. It was a remarkably high amount in the early games; something like 6 in the first 8 games. The other picks in the early games and the second half of the season were all him, and there were a LOT of them, but still, his total picks were greatly inflated by his stonehand receivers in the early games.
I’m not passing judgment on Eli’s play; I watched a ton of Giants games because I had Eli and Steve Smith on several fantasy teams, and I watched his receivers bat heaps of balls to defenders. I’m just saying that his traditional passer rating accurately reflects his statistics.
If Eli got a boost because the new system takes drops and passes deflected to defenders and what not into account, then that’s fair, but in that case I hope they also take off points for passes deflected to offensive players or terrible passes that receivers make terrific or lucky plays to come up with.
Cadillac Williams signed with the Rams. Sad day for this Bucs fan; Cadillac’s was the first (and only) rookie jersey I ever bought. After years of injury struggles, he finally found his spot last year as a prototypical third down back. Superb in blitz pickup, ran the draw and delay better than he ran between the tackles even before getting hurt, and surprisingly good hands.
The new Total QBR formula does take into account INTs that were tipped/batted/thrown at the end of a half and devalues those compared to a “traditional” INT. That’s likely how Eli ended up anywhere near the top.
I see you’ve never had to root for Donovan McNabb. Seeing a 3 yard flare completed was a rare and beautiful thing to behold.
The only negative to Eli’s 2010 was interceptions; he was top 10 in every other category. (Attempts, Completions, Completion %, TDs, TD %, Yards per Attempt)
I was just saying that while he was definitely bad with the picks, he wasn’t quite as bad as the numbers look. Of course that drags his passer rating way down.
Nothing about the Purple signing McNabb? I think he can do what Favre did in '09.
There’s a whole 'nuther thread about McNabb.
Eli wasn’t in the top 10 in 1st down percentage, but he was tied for 11th, so I’ll give you that one.
Throw interceptions to Tracy Porter?
Says the butthurt Eagles fan whose superstar quarterback puked his chance at history away. 52 years this year, pal.
Does the Dope have an award for most predictable post? This gets my nomination.
Super Bowl wins - the convenient and oft-parroted excuse for Pittsburgh fans to rationalize their worship for average quarterbacks!
Well, it looks like this Lofa Tatupu deal is edging a bit closer to fruition. Apparently the two sides are talking and there’s mutual interest. I’m not quite as fired up about the move as I was a couple days ago, I’ve heard and read a handful of discussions about him and the overriding theme is that injuries have really diminished him as a player. There was a time when he was a dynamic playmaker, last year he could barely move out there and it’s unclear if he was hurt or if he’s just lost it. Will a healthy Tatupu be like the old one or not?
Tatupu was due $4.35M last year and refused to take a pay cut. Considering his physical issues I’d be surprised if the Bears laid out anywhere close to that much cash considering what they’ve given the other retreads they’ve signed this off season. I would expect it’d be a 1 year deal, 2 at most, but if it’s for more that $3M per I’d be shocked.
There’s some questions out there about what he’d do with the Bears. People have questioned if he’d be willing to take a backup role behind Urlacher. I’m not convinced that’s where the Bears see him, they have a hole at SLB where Hillenmeyer and Tinoisamoa have rotated the last couple seasons and in the Bears scheme I think a Tatupu who’s lost a step could be very effective. In the Tampa 2 the MLB is the guy that’s got to have crazy skills, the WLB is the tackling machine and the blitzer. The SLB is the coverage guy, he’ll sometime have the curl zone and others have the deep middle. That’s a role more similar to a MLB role.
The Bears signed Nick Roach and Brian Iwuh, two guys they like and who they expect to compete for that Sam spot, it’ll be interesting if Tatupu comes to town how open that competition will be and if Tatupu is in the mix there. It is worth watching, he’d fill another need either way with high upside and modest price. This is the type of move the Bears are making, I fear they plan on pocketing as much money as they can in the next couple seasons before the salary floor kicks in. Hopefully these’s 1 year rentals pan out more often than not.
As an aside, I’m pissed the Bears didn’t give Ronnie Brown a look. He signed really cheap, even cheaper than Marion Barber and for my money Ronnie Brown has way more upside than Barber at this point. Barber’s one-time goal line prowess probably filled a greater need than Brown, but Brown looks like a much closer comparison to Forte should he go down. Really the should have cut Taylor’s sorry ass and signed them both.
Kind of a gamble. Tatupu has played Mike 'backer his entire career, and it’s a lot easier to switch between outside spots than to move outside from the middle. I don’t think he’s got the lateral speed to play outside in the Tampa 2, anyway; he’s much more of a downhill player.
Actually, he’s an exceptionally good quarterback who played an exceptionally poor game that day. But whatever. If you want to deride him with the average tag, that’s your business. I’ll take average over whatever the Eagles have had for the last half-century.