I just heard a statistic that throws most of the narratives about this election result (the idea of it being a swarm of new blue collar white voters, or Obama voting converts, swarming to the polls) out the window. The only one it preserves is the one about Hillary’s weaknesses.
Trump got over a million fewer votes than Romney did, even though the voting age population has grown in the past four years.
Think about that for a second. Mull it over. What we saw here was not any kind of surge for Trump. It was a bunch of Democrats sitting on their hands, while Republicans did what they do every election including off-year elections: go out and dutifully vote for their party’s candidates. With 20-20 hindsight, I can see that this connects directly with something I complained about months ago, which was that I hardly ever saw anyone wearing a Hillary button or displaying a Hillary bumper sticker or yard sign. She just wasn’t cool, there were many Democrats who never really warmed to her, and they didn’t go to Trump but just stayed home.
So that sucks, but it’s actually not as bad a sign for the future as if there had been millions of defectors to the other side. But it does add an extra condition to the oft-cited idea that Republicans vote every time, and Democrats only vote in presidential years: it’s “presidential years in which there is a really inspiring candidate at the top of the ticket”.
Well, ok. Much easier said than done, but it looks like that had better be what Democrats focus on in future primary races. Maybe it is time to give the left wing of the party a turn. If that turns off too many moderates, then back to the drawing board to find the next Obama who can thread the needle.