OK, I’ve been trying to put together my answer to the OP for a while now, but I keep having to deal with work matters. Here’s my take:
Stay:
[ul][li]Chipper Jones. A no-brainer. Locked up in a long-term deal through what, 2006? The one solid, consistent, outstanding position player on the roster.[/li][li]Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine. Both will be in the final year of their contracts. The Braves would love to resign both to two- or three- year deals before next season, but would probably go four years to either or both, given that they’ve both been consistently healthy and aren’t power pitchers who’re liable to suddenly losing their stuff over the off-season as they age. Whether the budget will stretch that far – and still cover free agent signings for key holes – remains to be seen. Nevertheless, barring some catastrophe that eliminates the Braves from playoff consideration early on, both will be in Braves uniforms through the 2002 season.[/li][li]Rafael Furcal and Marcus Giles. Unless Wilson Betemit continues to match or exceed Furcal’s rate of rise through the organization, these two will be the DP combo next year. Both are under contract, and neither is arbitration eligible. With Furcal back in the leadoff slot, Giles drops down to the second spot in the batting order, to which he’s better suited. If Betemit wins a roster spot out of spring training, you may well see Furcal move back to second (his original position in his early days in the Braves organization), with Giles moving to left field (it’s been expected that Giles might move to the outfield eventually for years, but he’s been shifted to 2B since he’s so short and people expect outfielders to be tall, and the Braves didn’t have the same quality elsewhere in the organziation at 2B as they did at SS). There’ve also been rumblings about moving Giles to CF and trading Andruw Jones, but while he has the speed, I don’t think he has the arm, and he can’t have Jones’ instincts out there.[/li][li]Andruw Jones. As crazy as he’s made me and a lot of other Braves fans this year with his propensity to swing at anything above his belt (and the resulting strikeouts), Bobby Cox probably isn’t too far off in his estimate of the number of runs Jones saves in the field. And he did hit 34 HRs with over 100 RBI, though both of those numbers mean less than most people think. He’s going to get a huge raise in arbitration as a result of them, however. He’s already one of the highest-paid players on the team, after Glavine, Maddux, Smoltz, and C. Jones. Nevertheless, the Braves will keep him until they get an offer that they’d be nuts to refuse, or until he demonstrates early next year that he hasn’t cut down on the strikeouts and improved his OBP. If he’s still swinging at lots of pitches up around the cap bill early next year, look for him and his new, even heftier salary to be shipped off somewhere for top prospects at 1B, catcher, or CF.[/li][li]Brian Jordan. Wasn’t the second coming of Babe Ruth, but played solidly all year long, came through in a big way in key games down the stretch, and is signed for another couple of years. He was also the closest thing to an exciting player the Braves had this year. I’m sure the Braves would still listen to offers for him, but I can’t think who would make one, and Schuerholz will have enough on his plate this winter without worrying about RF when there’s an acceptable answer already sewn up.[/li][li]Kevin Millwood. Signed, but arbitration-eligible IIRC. He’ll get more money, but probably not a whole lot more. I figure he’s got April and May to convince the Braves he’s turned it around before they start shopping him hard to other clubs. If someone makes an attractive offer this winter, he could be shipped off as well. If he pitches well in the first half next year, he’ll probably be in the rotation all year as the number three guy.[/li][li]Jason Marquis and Odalis Perez. Marquis becomes the fourth starter, and Perez the fifth starter. If Millwood is traded, either before or during next season, they each move up a slot in the rotation. I don’t think Perez is arbitration-eligible this year, though he might be. It shouldn’t matter much anyway, since he missed so much of the year on the DL.[/li][li]Paul Bako. Nobody thinks he’s an everyday catcher, but Eddie Perez has had two years to get healthy and reclaim his backup role, and since Perez is a free agent, he’s much more likely to end up elsewhere. I can’t see Bobby Cox willingly going into the season without a reliable backup catcher, and it ain’t gonna be Steve Torrealba. Bako’s cheap, has stayed healthy for over the last few years, and will have bursts of hitting ability at least as often as Perez would – and he’s four years younger than Perez, who’s 33 already. Like Jordan, he represents a reasonably safe bet who’s already in place and won’t add to the payroll. He should be arbitration-eligible, but a line like this[/li]
Team Gms. AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI Avg. SH SF SB CS BB IBB HBP SO
ATL 61 137 19 29 10 1 2 15 .211 0 0 1 0 20 2 0 34
isn’t going to get you much of a raise.
[li]Mike Remlinger. He’s signed for next year and has done what the Braves have asked of him. Ditto for . . .[/li][li]Kerry Ligtenberg, who had a rocky first half this year but was quietly effective in the second half. The Braves need to keep him around, because when he’s effective he’s the one guy they’ll have in the bullpen who’s been a quality major league closer for close to a full season. He’ll be their insurance policy for their continued experiment with . . .[/li][li]John Smoltz as the closer. Smoltz will play the “I’m not really sure that I want to be a closer instead of a starter” card for all it’s worth in the press, in order to get as much out of the Braves as possible, but I think ultimately he’ll agree to come back to the Braves in that role.[/li][li]Mark DeRosa has earned a chance to come back next year, though in what role, I don’t know, because every Bobby Cox team has at least one elderly, good-field-no-hit shortstop (Rafael Belliard, Walt Weiss, Ozzie Guillen, Rey Sanchez). Which means that, while no person outside the organization would expect it, the Braves might actually re-sign . . .[/li][li]Rey Sanchez. No, I don’t want them to either. But it’ll be him or someone very much like him. DeRosa has to hope that Keith Lockhart is gone, so that he can be the swing utility infielder; unfortunately for DeRosa, he bats right, which’ll hurt his chances for that role.[/li][li]Dave Martinez will probably be back as well, if only because he’s already under contract for next year, IIRC. Besides which, the Braves don’t have much depth in the OF in the organization; Cory Aldridge and George Lombard are about it, and if Lombard doesn’t have an good spring, he’s gone – released, or traded somewhere as a throw-in.[/li][li]Damian Moss and Tim Spooneybarger are the only other pitchers on the 40-man roster that are likely to stick with the big club out of spring training next year, depending on how they throw in the spring and what happens with the trade/free agent deals over the winter. Chris Hammond might have an outside shot.[/li][li]Julio Franco. I think the Braves will probably give him a shot with a cheap contract that has some incentive clauses for performance and sticking on the roster, unless they sign a top-shelf free agent first baseman – Giambi, or at least Tino Martinez (the only other guy I’d put in that class that’s eligible for free agency; I have no idea how likely he is to re-sign with the Yanks) – and I don’t think that’ll happen.[/ul][/li]
On the bubble:
Javy Lopez. On the one hand, I think the Braves would rather have Smoltz back as their closer. They also have to get someone to play first base. On the other hand, when he’s healthy and performing like he has in the past, Lopez is one of the top ten catchers in the game offensively, and there’s a big dropoff from the top ten or so to the rest of the pack. There aren’t any great free agent catchers available as far as I know (Charles Johnson has an out clause in his contract, and after that guys like Brent Mayne, Rick Wilkins, Benito Santiago, etc., make up the rest of the list). There’s nothing down on the farm. So either the Braves make a trade or make a deal with Lopez. Outside chance: they make a deal for a catcher and sign Lopez, moving him to first in the hope that he’ll be able to stay healthier there.
B.J. Surhoff. He has a player option for this year. I’m sure the Braves would be happy to see him decline it, and nearly as happy to buy him out if they could do so without bankrupting themselves. There’s not one of the other 29 clubs who’d take him in a trade unless the Braves agree to pay most of his salary (and he’ll be just as overpriced next year as he’s been the last two).
That’s 22 of 25 roster slots, assuming Lopez and Surhoff are both around and Hammond isn’t. It’s also 10 pitchers, which is what the Braves typically carry.
Gone:
[ul][li]Kurt Abbott. No comment necessary.[/li][li]Ken Caminiti. The only person who won’t try to convince him to retire is his agent.[/li][li]Eddie Perez. He’s missed practically all of the last two years. That’s a bit much for a light-hitting catcher, even if he is Greg Maddux’s personal receiver. And he’s 33.[/li][li]Wes Helms. The Braves have to be hoping that he has a torrid spring so that they can deal him while there’s some interest. Otherwise, I guarantee he’s cut at the end of spring training, if not before. He’ll be out of options, so there’s no going back to Richmond, and he’s shown no reason he should stay in Atlanta.[/li][li]Keith Lockhart. Hasn’t even been the solid left-handed pinchhitter he once was, which was really the only reason to keep him around up to now.[/li][li]John Burkett. Leo Mazzone has worked wonders with guys considered over the hill before, adding one or two solid years to their careers before rigor mortis finally set in (think Mike Bielecki). He’s done it for Burkett, and it’s been two years. Next year, he’s a lot more expensive after leading the NL in ERA, and that means he’ll be falling apart somewhere other than Atlanta.[/li][li]The Cleveland Steves, Karsay and Reed. Karsay keeps making noise about wanting to go back to starting, and the Braves don’t have any interest in him in that role. Besides which, he stunk up the joint in September and October, and he’s still going to command a pretty substantial salary as a free agent. Reed did what was expected of him, but he’s old and also will be expensive, and the Braves have possibilities at Richmond, Greenville, and Myrtle Beach.[/li][li]**Rudy Seanez ** is old and fragile, but the Braves might offer him a minor league contract and an invitation to camp. Wouldn’t expect him to take it.[/li][li]Jose Cabrera. The Braves saw why the Astros held on to him so long, and why they finally had to cut him loose.[/li][li]Bernard Gilkey. The Braves finished 2001 with six outfielders on their 40-man roster. Only two, Andruw Jones and Cory Aldridge, were born after 1967. They may get stuck with Surhoff, and Martinez is already signed for next year. Gilkey doesn’t have a player option or a contract for next year, nor does he have a job with the Braves in 2002. George Lombard will get first crack at that slot, and if he can’t get it done we’ll no doubt end up with someone else’s problem child as part of a trade.[/ul][/li]
Conclusions: With Furcal back and Giles at second, this isn’t a bad start. The big hole is at first, and catcher is a big question mark even if Lopez re-signs. A quality guy in LF wouldn’t hurt either. I wouldn’t mind seeing them take a chance making a deal with Detroit for either Mitch Meluskey or Robert Fick, with Lopez returning to play first. Meluskey would come cheaper, since he’s a bit of a personality problem, isn’t that good defensively, and missed all of this year with an injury to his throwing shoulder. Fick has played both 1B and C, has been healthy so far, and had a decent year finally after a couple of years in which he promised a lot more than he delivered. Detroit’s the only team I can think of offhand who has two youngish catchers who’re .300 hitters with some power when healthy. If the Braves somehow do land Giambi and manage to get rid of Surhoff, they’re looking at someone like Marty Cordova as a free agent for LF. Otherwise, if they can move Lopez to 1B and get a decent offensive replacement at catcher without busting the budget, we could see Moises Alou in a Braves uniform. I’d also love to see the Braves pursue the guy who drove the final nail in their coffin this year: Erubiel Durazo. The Diamondbacks don’t seem to want to turn over the first base job to him, and he deserves a chance to start somewhere.