Wikipedia actually has a decent overview of the major sociological and political science theories behind revolutions and social movements.
I tend to favor the structuralist theories
From the latter article:
Structural strain theory proposes six factors that encourage social movement development:
- structural conduciveness - people come to believe their society has problems - check Egypt has had a fairly large opposition movement before this - see Kefaya and no one has ever been really happy with 30-year old state of “emergency”.
- structural strain - people experience deprivation - **check **- rising food prices coupled with long term unemployment
- growth and spread of a solution - a solution to the problems people are experiencing is proposed and spreads - check Peaceful overthrow of a neighboring regime
- precipitating factors - discontent usually requires a catalyst (often a specific event) to turn it into a social movement - check See previous point for Egypt. In Tunisia, it was the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi.
- lack of social control - the entity that is to be changed must be at least somewhat open to the change; if the social movement is quickly and powerfully repressed, it may never materialize - this is where the Egyptian process is at this moment - Mubarak tried to use Interior Ministry forces to crush it and failed. I think the military will support the protestors since I think they realize the economic system has failed because of the widespread political corruption. They are conscripts, not orphans - they have families and know what they are going through, and the military is not lifetime employment. They only serve for a few years, and they know what their job prospects will be when they leave.
- mobilization - this is the actual organizing and active component of the movement; people do what needs to be done - check - courtesy of Facebook and other social media. I think Al-Jazeera had an important affect - these are fellow Arab journalists and provide a local outlet for opposition figures - which also provide an example of strong independent media. (Yes, they are state-owned, but more in the sense of BBC and PBS - they have strong editorial freedom.)
Plus the Egyptian regime pissed off thesoccer clubs. Never a good idea.