Of course they want us to be seen striking first. Because they have a treaty with China obligating them to come to their defense in that event.
This is why I won’t rule out the use of a nuke in a submarine, which becomes “prove it”, just like the sunken SK ship deal, which both China and Russia refused to accept was done by NK.
Guam ‘accidentally’ blows up. China blames faulty storage of nuclear weapons or some such, and attempts to use to divide our allies and hosts regarding US bases in that area. Fatboy Kim solidifies his position and parties like a boss for an entire year with the internal prestige he gains from striking back at the American Imperialists.
Up until a few years ago, tracing Chinese subs was quite easy- they hadn’t mastered the non- or anti- captivating propeller, and ther props could be heard 100’s of miles away. I seriously doubt the NK’s have replaced their props.
When your baddest sub is based in a WWII German U boat, don’t expect to be taken seriously.
And forget “hiding” a sub-launched missile - the ocean is flat and a missile suddenly appearing from the ocean is going to be seen within 5 seconds of breaking the surface. And sonar is probably going to detect the launch itself. Those were designed for doomsday use -if activated, it meant the end of the world, so subtlety was not needed.
Plus, they are generally loaded with strategic weapons - can any of them do a stealth launch of a stealth cruise missile? If not, forget the boomers - just have the attack subs ready to take out their navy. I’m guessing there are as many anti-ship missiles in the area as there are credible-threat NK ships
Kim, as with the rest of his family of the current generation, was educated in Switzerland; he has a (cousin, I believe) close relative there now.
On the plus side, having that one available (who, reportedly has formed friendships with both SK and US citizens) would make a coup handy - we’ll just declare this one to be the rightful heir to the throne.
Since NK borders both China and Russia, it is probably safe to assume that there would be some blowback from irradiating the area and killing a few hundred thousand people and contaminating a significant chunk of China’s agricultural territory.
Just maybe, you think?
I think it much more likely that China would respond to that by throwing North Korea to the wolves, or invading it themselves; I don’t see China as willing to risk being destroyed in a nuclear war for the sake of NK, and that’s what they’d be risking at that point. And North Korea one way or another would be destroyed, and no one would care about any claims how Guam was “accidental”. Kim one way or another is killed, either in the conquest or executed afterwards.
Once they use nuclear weapons, the gloves will come off and no “plausible deniability” excuses will matter in the slightest. They’ll be lucky if all that happens is conventional military conquest and not a rain of American nukes.
Assuming you weren’t the victim of autocorrect, it’s cavitate, not captivate.
When I read the original post suggesting a submarine attack I presumed, maybe incorrectly, that he was suggesting that NK would load a warhead onto a sub, send it over on a suicide mission and just detonate it when they got as close as they could. While it wouldn’t be as physically effective as an airburst, the psychological impact wouldn’t be any less. Maybe even more as the explosion would have come with little or no public warning at all.
Now some missiles that are capable of reaching Japan have been moved to North Korea’s East Coast, and they’re warning foreign-embassy personnel in Pyongyang that their safety cannot be guaranteed. The wife and I are about to spend a couple of weeks in Japan. Hope things don’t heat up there.
My team lead is Korean. Been in the US for 20 years. His daughter is spending a year there studying at a Korean school. He has 3 weeks scheduled off in June-July to go visit.
Haven’t directly asked him about things over there. He doesn’t volunteer anything and hasn’t spoken up when my co-worker and I discuss it.
BBC TV is reporting that North Korea has just sentenced an American tour operator to 15 years’ hard labor for “trying to overthrow the government.” Really. I didn’t catch his name, but from the photo they showed of him, he looks to be of Korean ethnicity.
He’s not the first Western citizen to fall afoul of North Korea, but usually it’s people who have entered the country illegally such as journalists or evangelists. Is this the first time someone has been there on a valid visa and in all likelihood was just minding his own business?
