Okay, suppose the Republicans do control all three branches. Predictions?

Great Debates
1

I am absolutely certain this has come up on a previous therad, but seeing as how there are now predictions that this’ll happen, I figured it’s worthwhile to dredge up again.

So what happens to the likelihood of war in Iraq? Attention to corporate problems? The environment? The pro-marijuana push that Newsweek (or was it Time?), at least, seems to see? Supreme Court justices (though this perhaps is linked enough with the earlier debate on this question specifically linked to abortion)? How much is a risk of the economy still tanking in two years and Republicans getting all the blame?

If this does happen, I guess this might be the test of whether the two parties are really as similar as many people claim. Whaddya think?

2

They are the same, they just have a few trivial - yet highly publicized - differences to make you feel that they’re on opposite ends of the political spectrum. The only thing they’re competing for is money.

War with Iraq: inevitable

Supreme court justitces: arch conservatives instead of ordinary conservatives

Legalization of pot: not in a million years under either party’s control.

Corporations will continue to get away with pretty much anything (interesting that the recent wave of indictments has been under a republican administration?)

Any further downturn in the economy will be blamed on the republicans.

The PATRIOT Act and the DMCA will remain in full force; UCITA will be passed. Microsoft will remain a monopoly.

The only real difference lies is religious issues. Abortion rights will be whiddled away, church and state will be more united, not divided.
At the end of the day, the same people who give money to the democrats also give money to the republicans… that’s really the bottom line.

3

Supreme Court Justices: textualists rather than purposivists and legislative history enthusiasts

Civil liberties: some small losses, enough to bring me enough concern to break and vote for Carnahan, though anything too ridiculous will get filibustered

War with Iraq: coming or not either way, regardless of party

Abortion: unaffected, the issue is totally controlled at the federal law level by Roe and Casey, and Roe would be upheld 6-3 currently, so the feds will stay out of it…but I doubt the GOP will toss the abortionists any special funding or such

Tax cuts: will remain in place now, but a tax hike really was never a viable choice for the Dems in a poor economy

So probably not much. Both GOP and Dems favor expanding the role of government, so you won’t notice too many differences. OTOH, tonight’s results may swing the Dems back left-populist, because moving center didn’t work. '04 is anyone’s baby, between the parties and within the parties.

4

First off, it’s two branches. :slight_smile:

(You can attempt to argue judicial appointments when the Executive and the Senate are the same party as a third branch, but technically speaking, the judiciary is non-partisan. Uh huh.)

FWIW, …

  1. I expect a major upgrade, if not war with Iraq, within 60 days, but not before the end of November, regardless of any UN support resolutions.

Why? Ramadan begins November 6 and ends December 1. Bush won’t go to war before that unless he really wants to offend Muslims world-wide, even if they don’t like Saddam. Other news commentaries have said it gets too hot in Iraq by late March. Bush will have to fight and win in a December-February window. This will also dovetail nicely with an expected very poor Christmas sales period. Bush can continue to evade the more important economic issues by going to war in a December-February window, and the public will buy it.

If he fails to go to war by March, the weather also becomes his enemy and the people may just start to get wise that the economy is more important than a war with Iraq.

  1. A Republican Congress will ignore corporate scandal problems and illegalities. Expect Worldcom, Enron, et.al., issues to just go away. Even the corporate media will reduce their reportings because a) it’s old news and more importantly, b) corporate America will pressure the corporate owned media to cool it.

  2. The environment will continue to get shafted. Bush is already on a fast-track to not hold public hearings, eliminate regulations and flout the law. Expect only Congressionally mandated requirements to survive, but in name only. Watch funding to be cut in Congressional environmental programs to the point that the law becomes ineffective.

  3. The “pro marijuana” is a non-entity now.

  4. At least two Supreme Court justices will retire and Bush will appoint two far right candidates, who will be confirmed by the Senate.

  5. The economy will be the stick that breaks the Republican back. Unfortunately, many Americans will be more hurt than the Republican elected officials.

The danger is the continued linear thinking the media seems to do, politicians seem to do, and the average American only knows how to do. With so many interacting issues, it is very difficult to predict any real scenarios so far ahead.

For example, what if there is a war with Iraq and Saddam unleashes WMDs? On just our troops? On Israel? Even on Saudia Arabia? I believe if Saddam unleashes any WMDs in the war, the world economy will tank overnight. Oil prices will skyrocket (regardless of any ecomonic theories and common sense to say they shouldn’t/won’t/whatever). Right now, Pacific Northwest oil prices have jumped overnight because the Alaska pipeline is shut down for safety and to repair supports because of the recent earthquake. Of course, that oil will not reach markets for 30-90 days to actually affect supply and demand, and prices but the price gouging has already started. Even with the national oil reserve some say can help us for a year, watch oil prices for us jump, and worldwide skyrocket.

The Supreme Court appointees will be far right conservatives. The Republican Senate will b filled with so much glee to confirm them there will be no indepth hearings. The real problem will be several years down the road when the true colors of those Justices emerge. While it is possible for one or more to pull an Earl Warren, I think not likely. It is very possible that we will not have right wing decisions from the Court but far right wing decisions. This will affect the country for years to come.

Environment issues will get a whipping. Bush will use the “we need more oil to fuel our war on terrorism” approach to open up ANWR even though that oil will not come online for at leat ten years and in its 10-20 year existence, won’t have any impact on our oil dependency. Conservation of resources will become a four-letter word, if not already for Bush. This will also have long-term and far reaching ramifications for the country long after Bush is gone. The only dsaving grace here is if the federal bureaucray that everyone hates starts to go slow in implementing Bush’s policies.

Bush will probably get his Dept of Homeland Security with no civil service protections for federal employees. In effect, a secret police force answering only to the president. However, there are already major signs federal employees who may transfer in the new Department will not. Already sky marshalls are quitting their new jobs and in a three-week period last month(?) more than twenty percent of them called in sick. Until this really happewns, wathch jackboot justice to pick up all across America. Herr Ashcroft is probably slapping his riding croup with glee right now.

Unless, and until, average American really feel economic pain to force the Republicans to do something, the economy will not get better.

While I’ve only addressed this with an apparent anti-Republican view, the real issue is that Republicans in general have been hoodwinked by a far right group within the party. The Bush agenda is not a Republican agenda. Bush is operating his agenda cloaked in the Republican party. Only when people see the Bush agenda has nothing to do with America in general will the tide turn. I just don’t think the average person sees this, nor will see it until long after it is too late.

5

—Tax cuts: will remain in place now, but a tax hike really was never a viable choice for the Dems in a poor economy —

It’s highly misleading to call canceling a future tax cut a “tax hike.”

—OTOH, tonight’s results may swing the Dems back left-populist, because moving center didn’t work.—

Don’t buy it. Dems may take on more mock populist rhetoric, but why go left? The crazies will never vote democratic anyway, so it’s not like there are many votes to pick out out there. The median voter still reigns…

—Unless, and until, average American really feel economic pain to force the Republicans to do something, the economy will not get better.—

Here’s what I agree with. The economy will not get better for awhile. The American public will complain, and maybe force Republicans to do something. Then the economy will get better. However, with the exception of the poor economy being the cause of the American public’s outrage, none of these things will have much of anything to do with each other.

6

**

No need to suppose any more - they do.

  • I guess the gridlock of stuff that’s been passed by the House that’s died in the Senate over the past year just came to an end. Ditto the federal judge nomination logjams.

  • I wouldn’t be surprised if at least Renquist used this as an opportunity to retire and get a fellow conservative on the SCOTUS bench.

  • Terry McAullife will lose his job as the head of the Democratic National Committee.

  • The tone in Washington will erode to even new lows. Dems will see this as a lesson that they have to be more opposed and more vehemently opposed to positions that lend themselves to Republicans getting or maintaining power. They will spend the next two years more or less campaigning for '04. If they are smart, they will do more to separate themselves from positions seen as Republican positions. (This could also backfire on them, however.)

Final prediction: at least a dozen Straight Dopers I know will be bitter and venomous. :slight_smile:

7

Now this I can see, for sure. The GOP should take a look at how they acted 1993-94, when the Dems had the Presidency and both houses, because that’s pretty much what the Dems will be doing now. Standard “opposition party” mode.

8

a lot more killing perhaps…:eek:

what about gun legislation now poof

hmmm…maybe not so bad after all

9

Damn fuckin’ straight!!! :wink: … And you can add “sleepless” and “depressed” to the list.

10

Republicans won’t repeal or reverse any of the damage the democrats have done, and will, instead, screw us over in the same way, expanding the government and promoting orwellian “anti-terror” surveillance measures. And conservatives will worship them for it, because they love to be stabbed in the back as long as it’s done by Republicans.

grumble

11

And the saddest truth is that had the major elections in the last two years gone the other way Democrats would have reacted the same way and for the same (lack of) reason. My only true shots at hope are that (a) the Reps can make constructive use of the power invested in them tonight or (b) the reaction to their squandering of the opportunity will result in the solutions that they could then not generate. But it seems that partisans of both parties are far too willing to trade essential liberties for temporary security. I do believe we’ve been warned about just such a exchange.

12

The fact is, the country is moving conservative. Generation X is conservative, and counts more Republicans than Democrats in its ranks. The baby boomers are the last big block of liberals, and I think you just saw them tonight pass the peak of their power. They’re still hugely influential, but will grow less so in the future.

Frankly, I think that the Democrats will have to move to the right to survive. If they respond to this by moving to the left, they are in big trouble. Hell, they are already in big trouble. The magnitude of the shift towards the Republicans is only hinted at by the win/loss columns. A more important thing to note is that even in states where Democrats won, their margin of victory was almost universally lower than expected (i.e. a Senator in a ‘safe’ district who is expected to win maybe 65% of the vote instead wins 53/47).

13

What SenorBeef said.

14

I guess the country either agrees with Pat Robertson & Falwell or they just don’t give a damn. Sad.:frowning:

15

Oh, please. Should we represent Democrats as Louis Farrakhan and Lyndon LaRouche?

16

Limbaugh, Hannity and the entire conservative media machine do this every Day!!!

17

The fact of the matter is that the country is still heavily divided – we’re only talking a few seats here (and we know how close the presidential election was a couple years ago). Yet, in the end, the GOP got the upper hand. When W. first took office, he did not seem to care that he had actually LOST the popular vote and acted as if he had a mandate from the entire country. I expect that attitude will take control again in the White House and Congress. It may only be a small majority, but it’s a majority nonetheless, and they will use it to push their agendas. The real question in my mind is if the more moderate Repubs will stand up to the conservatives or if they will just go along for the ride.

18

But they’re not Republican conservative. They’re multicultural, they support gay rights, they’re pro-choice, etc. Trent Lott is anathema to Gen-X.

19

Campaign finance reform is hollowed out. The Republican advantage isn’t ideology, it’s money. They’ll give up that advantage when its pried from thier cold, dead hands. Corporate board rooms will get more protection from snoopy stockholders and “regulators”. The rich will get richer, the rest you know. And there will be war. Bumper stickers:“Support our troops in Iraq! and Afghanistan! and Yemen! and the Phiilipines! And Andorra!..”

Jesse Helms and Phil Gramm are gone, and thats almost enough in and of itself.

Certain dopers will gloat themselves silly. But it is written that whatsoever shall go around, therefore shall it come around. And maybe, just maybe, the Dem’s will finally realize what Loyal Opposition means.

And, of course, Lincoln was right.

20
  • NEP

At the risk of sounding like chicken little, this Republican victory does not bode well for freedom and liberty here in the good ol’ USA. The only mitigating factor will be the differences within the party. With control of the legislative and executive branches in hand, Reps will not feel as constrained to tow the party line. More moderate Reps will (hopefully) vote their conscience when right wing wacked out proposals come their way.