I don’t know what you’re arguing here. Romney’s odds aren’t that bad. They’re as high as 42%. He would still feel a million times more secure if they were over 50%.
What’s your disagreement?
Yes, but I expect Romney to get both if the election is close. Then, getting Virginia and Colorado may not be enough for Obama since latest polls show Romney gaining in Iowa and Wisconsin.
I’m now predicting a 269 to 269 tie.
I’ve been playing around with the 270 to Win app, using Nate Silver’s numbers as a starting point. As of now, I’m throwing 44 states to one candidate or the other. Only Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada are “toss-ups” for my purposes. That gives Obama 251 EVs, and Romney 205.
Should Obama take Florida, he can lose all the rest and still win the Electoral College. If he can take Ohio, he can still lose the others (including Florida) as long as he takes Nevada, which is looking like a good bet right now.
Romney pretty much needs to win all three of Ohio, Virginia and Florida, then either Iowa or Colorado. I don’t see any other path to victory, unless he’s somehow able (through effort or outside events) to flip another likely Obama state, like Wisconsin.
If Obama wins Ohio, I think he wins the election. If Obama wins Florida, it’s over.
Interesting map. You do realize that tie = Romney victory, right?
If Obama still follows the 50 state strategy, he won’t loose any state.
IIRC in another thread, the conclusion was that tie was likely to lead to a Romney-Biden Administration. :smack:
It’s all about Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. Romney really needs a sweep, but if he gets it, he’s the overwhelming favorite. If Obama wins Florida, that’s the ballgame, and if he wins either Ohio or Virginia, the odds are heavily in his favor to win the election.
Assumptions:
- Romney wins all the McCain states from 2008, plus Indiana and the one Nebraska CD that went for Obama last time, plus some share of the eight contested states.
- Obama wins the states he won in 2008, minus Indiana and the one Nebraska CD that he won last time, minus some share of the eight contested states.
- The eight contested states are: NH, VA, NC, FL, OH, IA, CO, and NV. That’s where the campaigns are still spending money.
The net is that Obama starts with a 247-191 EV advantage.
Florida obviously puts Obama over the top. Even if he doesn’t win FL, Ohio gets him up to 265; any other contested state besides NH wins it for him. Absent FL and OH, Virginia gets him up to 260; Romney needs to win NC and any 3 of the 4 smaller contested states (NH, IA, CO, NV) to win.
If Romney sweeps FL, VA, and OH, I’m assuming Obama loses NC also; it’s always been more the icing on the cake than the state that’s likely to push him over the top. In that case, Obama would need to win all four of the smaller contested states to win.
So I’ll be watching FL, VA, and OH, in whatever order their polls close.
Beyond the swing states, however, there are a few things you can learn from the early-closing states based on how quickly they are called.
In particular, if PA is called early for Obama that’s a very good sign for him. Conversely, an early call of NC for Romney would be an extremely good sign for him. State-by-state results tend to correlate so a big win in PA portends good things for Obama in OH.
I believe the polls are closing in this order:
VA, then NC and OH, then FL and NH (at this point we could find out the winner), next up are CO and WI, then lastly IA and NV.
Nice map. I think I’ll just make two changes: Wisconsin to Obama, and New Hampshire to Romney.
That’s enough to put Obama over the top.
The VP would depend upon who controls the Senate after the election. As I understand it, that’s very much up for grabs right now. The other thread dealt with the peculiar possibility of a 50-50 split in the Senate after the election.
And the GOP platform called for preservation of the Electoral College.
So, if … and I grant it’s still an if at this point … both Virginia and Ohio are called for Obama, there’s hardly a need for anyone to stay up late to see what else happens. Florida is the next big call … as mentioned earlier, that alone would likely decide it for Obama. If Romney takes all three, he still needs to get something else to put him over the top - but if things are going that well for him on election night, chances are excellent he’ll be able to take Iowa or Colorado, anyway.
T-minus 30 hours, give or take, until polls close on the west coast.
Curious if the predictions made above still pertain, or if anyone has tweaked them a bit in the past 6 weeks.
Not true.
Here’s a plausible map that shows Obama winning even if he loses Ohio and Florida. It would be even more solid if Virginia goes Obama’s way; Ohio is different enough from VA that a Romney win in OH need not mean Obama loses either CO or VA.
The three early states to watch are OH, VA, and FL. If the first two go blue while the third remains too close to call for a while (which is what I expect), Mitt might as well start debugging his concession speech subroutines.
The New York Times has a neat little tool where you can play with different scenarios among their nine tossup states (FL, OH, WI, NV, NH, NC, VA, CO, IA). There’s 512 different ways these could go, 431 of which go to Obama, and 76 to Romney, with five ties. If Obama wins FL, Romney’s only path to victory is to win all eight of the others.