Update for “average Doper prediction”:
Mentions
Cruz 17
Trump 17
Rubio 16
Bush 12
Carson 11
Hi/Lo
Cruz 41/15
Trump 35/18
Rubio 25/8
Bush 21/5
Carson 15/3
Mean %
Cruz 31.3%
Trump 25.9%
Rubio 14.8%
Bush 8.5%
Carson 8.5%
Median %
Cruz 34%
Trump 26%
Rubio 13%
Bush 6%
Carson 6%
(Note: Same caveats as last time)
Cruz - 27
Rubio - 21
Trump - 21
Bush - 12
Carson - 10
Paul - 5
Huckabee - 3
Here’s 538’s running Iowa predictions.
FWIW, the Iowa polling supporting 538’s probabilities is starting to look a bit dated, given that we’re less than 2 weeks away from caucus night. Today’s the 19th, but the most recent poll is a week old (Gravis Marketing on 1/11-12) and nobody else with results up has been in the field since the 10th.
Presumably there are polls being done right now, but we don’t know what they’ll say. There’s no way to tell if there’s been any significant shifts in Iowa voter sentiment in the past week or so, which is a weird feeling at this stage.
Part of that will be the fact that a large percentage of voters - 20%? 30%? - claim not to make up their minds until the day of the caucus. That makes enough of a swing that - as the saying goes - the only poll that matters is the last one.
So honestly trying to make predictive models from polls even two weeks out is enough of a challenge that even 538 is probably gulping and hedging a bit.
There’s speculation that Palin is going to endorse Trump in Iowa; sort of like the head clown endorsing the ringmaster. It just gets crazier with every passing day.
Maybe. But I’d like to see an instance where that last-minute swing of the undecideds has happened without any preceding movement in the polls leading up to the caucuses.
And Iowa Governor Terry Branstad issues an anti-endorsement of Ted Cruz:
Branstad may not be a household name like Sarah Palin is but he is very influential in the Iowa GOP. Poll numbers in Iowa for Cruz are likely to drop significantly as a result of this.
Trump: 27%
Cruz: 19%
Rubio: 12%
Bush: 7%
That leaves a good 35% for other candidates.
And I just don’t think we know enough to make any sort of declarative statement on the matter. My thesis remains that this primary - like the last one - is changing the game on the R side of aisle. How it changes is an unknown. The fact that it’s changing is not.
Trump: 31%
Cruz: 27%
Rubio: 10%
Bush: 8%
Carson: 7%
One last “average Doper” update the night before the caucus:
Mentions…
Cruz 20
Trump 20
Rubio 19
Bush 15
Carson 13
High/Low
Cruz 41/15
Trump 35/18
Rubio 25/8
Bush 21/5
Carson 15/3
Mean
Cruz 30.25
Trump 26.0
Rubio 14.7
Bush 8.6
Carson 8.5
Median
Cruz 31
Trump 27.5
Rubio 13
Bush 7
Carson 6
To quote Jane’s Addiction…
“Here we GO!”
Yeah, at last, after a year of shadowboxing, we finally get some people actually voting. About freakin’ time.
Really, just move the damn caucuses to October 2019 next time. Have 'em just before Halloween. The GOP candidates aren’t going to get any less scary between now and then, so it’ll be apropos.
Anyhow, I’m revising my prediction from earlier in the thread:
Trump 29%
Cruz 26%
Rubio 19%
Carson 9%
No offense, but you earn less bragging rights making a prediction today …
Well, I don’t expect to earn ANY bragging rights with my earlier prediction that Cruz will get 41%, so…
You’re a statistician! Spin it!
Looks like Monocracy and Sterling Archer win the bragging rights.
That’s actually pretty good except for Bush – the first two suggest you have psychic powers! :eek: You didn’t have them in descending order, so here they are in order with the actuals in parentheses:
Cruz: 28% (28%)
Trump: 25% (24%)
Rubio: 20% (23%)
Bush: 12% (3%)
I freely admit that I didn’t have a clue what sorts of numbers to give them so I didn’t play.
I give myself a C-. Got my big prediction right, which was that we’d see Cruz overperform polls and Trump underperform due to ground game. Totally whiffed on two other predictions: I thought Carson would fade more. I still don’t understand how anyone voted for him. I am also somewhat surprised by the Rubio surge. He seems to be winning the ‘winnability in November’ contest, despite not being a particularly strong candidate. However, none of his competitors are either, so I can’t really fault any Republicans who support Rubio on these grounds.