If Rick Scott chooses to challenge Bill Nelson for his Senate seat, that’s definitely a seat in play for the GOP in 2018.
Rick Scott has had a pretty remarkable run as governor. He was one of the most unpopular governors in the country during his first term, recovered just enough to beat Charlie Crist in his reelection race, and now enjoys an approval rating of 52%
The likely GOP nominee is Adam Putnam a very strong candidate who has had a promising future for quite a few years now. If he loses, then that makes things more difficult for the party, but chances are the big money and institutional support will be behind him.
On the Democratic side, things aren’t bleak either. They have Gwen Graham, the daughter of Bob Graham, and Andew Gillum, the African-American mayor of Tallahassee and a bigtime rising star in the party that most of you have probably never heard of. Graham is probably only as good as her name. She was unimpressive in Congress and doesn’t seem to have any firm beliefs of her own. Gillum is a rock star but might be too liberal to win in Florida against someone like Putnam, although he probably could beat another Republican.
The bigger problem for Democrats is that one of the most popular guys in the primary, John Morgan, is a marijuana advocate and personal injury attorney. The progressive base is exciting about him for basically adopting the Sanders platform, but if he wins the primary I’m pretty certain he goes down to defeat. He has no experience running a political race of any kind and is WAY too liberal for Florida. Although you can’t rule anything out if the GOP nominee is weak and/or Trump drags all other Republicans down.
Still, all things considered, the Florida GOP looks to be in pretty decent shape heading into 2018.
Nelson’s not terribly inspiring but he’s a reasonably solid candidate (and certainly better than, say, Patrick Kennedy). There’s certainly the possibility that the progressive fringe might sandbag him but the current political climate may encourage the Democrats to be more (small-c) conservative with their approach and to stick with the incumbent who is more likely to hold his seat than to gamble with someone new.
Liberal/conservative politics don’t matter anymore. Trump won without any coherent political view (or at least without any authentic one) All Morgan has to do is promise to shake things up a bit and to destroy something now and then. I don’t know anything about Morgan, but I honestly think the voters wouldn’t care if he was a Marxist as long as he throws out enough “anti-establishment” rhetoric.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens to the GOP’s chances when Puerto Rico citizens move to Florida because their homes are pretty much unlivable. I wonder who they’ll favor once they can actually vote?
Regarding PR voters, I’m going to go out on a limb and say they’ll support “not Trump”. I can’t believe that they are happy with Trump as President, nor with the administration response to Hurricane Maria.
Polls are even now, but they usually break toward the incumbent the last few days before the election. And this one will be a referendum on Trump, or whoever’s President a year from now.
Not lately. Democrats have won or come close to winning in places they should not be competitive. Florida seems to be bucking that trend, looking pretty normal and evenly matched.
AFAIK, they haven’t taken over any GOP Congressional seats since Trump took office. They have won a handful of state legislature offices. Chris Cillizza in particular seems to have made a niche for himself in focusing on them and the impending doom they foretell for the GOP. It’s comfort food for libs.
I don’t hate him, I’ve just noticed a pattern of most of the stories I’ve read about Dems winning “seats” in “districts” this year have been written by him and are referring to state legislatures, not Congress.
ETA: That guy’s got to earn a living too, and writing articles that get clicks is an important part of that for him.
Those are most of the by-elections we *have *to look at, so don’t blame him.
There have been some real doozies of elections to replace Congressmembers that have made the blunder of joining the administration, even though the Pubs have typically managed to squeeze out wins in races they should never have had to pay attention to. And that was when Trump’s approvals were still up in the 40’s, not down at Nixon-resignation levels like they are now.
They’re also ‘most of the elections we have to look at’ during regularly-scheduled elections too, but people generally don’t seem to care, unless it fits some narrative they’re pushing.
Actually, that’s sorta bugging me. Trump’s approval ratings have been around 39% for quite some time, yet the media keeps on reporting that they are always dropping:
The big drop, such as it is, seems to only be reflected in polls of all adults, as opposed to voters, where he’s a lot more steady.
The guy is a really good journalist, but independent thinkers don’t do so well in our hyperpartisan culture.