I predict that regardless of who wins, we will still be in Iraq a year from now…and that it’s a good chance we’ll still be there 2 years from now as well.
-XT
The Reform Party failed and fell apart for two reasons: 1. Ross Perot, so long as he remained in the picture, stubbornly quashed efforts to turn it into something more than his own campaign vehicle, something that would run candidates for offices other than the presidency. 2. It had no coherent ideology, being a coalition of nativist-populist-protectionist paleocons like Pat Buchanan and fiscal-conservative good-government progressives (in the old sense of the word) like John Anderson; when Perot was no longer there to hold them together, the two factions split (the paleocons forming the America First Party, and some of the progressives forming the Independence Party, neither of which has yet attained even the relevance the Reform Party once enjoyed).
Unity '08 has no charismatic leader and not even that level of ideological coherence.
I’m sorry, but you just can’t build a political movement out of that. You need more policy content before you even start. You can’t just declare a process out of which policy content will emerge – we’ve already got that process, it’s called the electoral system and Congress. If they get on any ballot, it will be a one-shot flash in the pan (as the very name implies); there likely won’t be any Unity '12, and if there is it will have only the most tenuous connection with Unity '08.
Which does not mean your prediction for 2008 is wrong, of course.
- Predictions regarding a Unity '08-style ticket:
a) It probably won’t happen: nobody noteworthy seems that interested in running.
b) If it should happen, it won’t poll well enough to gain a spot in the Presidential debates.
c) If it should happen, it’ll win < 0.5% of the vote nationally. There just aren’t enough Broders in the world, and anyone with any sense laughs at Broder anyway.
Hillary vs. Giuliani. Hillary wins electoral votes but loses the popular vote. Pubbies try pulling a Gore by going to court, claiming voter fraud. Dems laugh at them but then remember that conservatives believe in gun ownership so have to give the presidency to Rudy or risk getting shot.
Reagan and FDR, both pissed at what has happened to their country and to their parties, rise from the dead, eat their brains and declare a zombie co-presidency.
Seriously, it will be Hillary/Edwards vs. Giuliani/Romney. Hillary cannot overcome her reputation as a manipulator and a bitch and Rudy has problems dealing with his bad attitude and personal issues, but if there is a security threat next year (I’m sure there will be), he’ll trot out 9/11 again and get elected by panicky people. If there isn’t a threat, Hilary will squeak in.
Poppycock.
It seems apparent that Hillary Clinton will have the lead going into the convention, at which point her campaign jet will fly through a mysterious electrical storm. When the crew regains consciousness, they will come to the realization that they are in 1941. Hillary will struggle with the ethical dilemma- should she attempt to kill Hitler? Should she travel to Brooklyn and pose as a waitress in a Brooklyn Italian restaurant, poisoning the wine of a young immigrant couple, Helen C. D’Avanzo and Harold Angel Giuliani, and interrupting the assignation which will eventually lead to the conception of Rudolph William Louis “Rudy” Giuliani?
She soldiers onward, leaping from life to life, and hoping each time that the next leap… will be the leap… home…
And the Dems gain four seats in the Senate.
Obama takes it all.
I don’t know how he does it. I don’t know who he beats. I don’t know who he runs with.
But I’m calling it here.
Neither Clinton nor Obama will be president. I’ll be shocked if Hillary survives the primaries.
And of course, the day I post this is the day John Edwards decides to go on the attack against Hillary Clinton.
I’m trying to focus on the positives here:
- I did say “if”.
- This board’s not paying me to be a political pundit so they can’t fire me.
- It’s very unlikely John Stewart is reading this thread.
Hillary wins the Dem primary. There other two top tier candidates just aren’t strong enough to have a chance to catch her.
Harder to call the Republican race. I’ve been saying Giulliani will crash and burn any day now for the last few months, but he’s still leading the national polls. If he does get the GOP nod, I think he’ll loose hard against Hillary. He’s trailing her now, when he’s still basically known as the hero of 9/11, when a more warts and all picture of him is perceived as the national election gets closer, I can only see him moving down in the polls.
The Dems should pick up 3-4 senate seats unless things go horribly wrong for them next year. They’re defending far fewer seats and have had fewer (no?) retirements announced yet.
The Dems may loose a few seats in the Congress as members who were voted in in normally Republican districts during the 2006 wave election are forced out. Doubt it will be close to the 15 seat shift need to switch control of the House though.
Ya know, though, if you talked to some of the Nader voters back then, they didn’t care. It was the “principle” that mattered. They knew they were throwing their vote away on Nadar.
I could see those on the right having the exact same mindset as the Nader voters did in 2000.
I guarantee you that there would be far more Republicans sufficiently disgusted by their party’s nominees to vote for a third party than Democrats who detest Hillary so much as to risk another Republican president. Mind you, there will be a lot of Republicans who do hold their noses, but I think the religious hard-right is far less forgiving of candidates who don’t share their positions on key issues than the far left which loathes Hillary but prefers her to any Republican.
Hilary Clinton and Barak Obama will win in 2008.
It’ll be interesting to see who’ll they’ll appoint as members of their Cabinet.
The Republican candidate will be Mitt Romney, with Mike Huckabee for VP. The Democratic candidate will be Hillary Clinton. If she teams up with Obama as VP, Hillary wins in a blowout. If not, she still wins, but by the skin of her teeth.
Bill Richardson swore off personal attacks the other day, so anybody who thinks he would take a VP spot or cabinet post in a Clinton administration is probably feeling pretty smart about it. 
He’s been criticizing Hillary on a pretty regular basis. Has he taken it up a notch? Have the MSM noticed?
I guess he’s decided which office he’s running for, that’s for sure.
I used to agree with that, but since Pat Robertson endorsed Rudy I don’t agree any more. I think a lot of these “Christians” have as their number one issue the aggressive use of US military force and will be willing to suffer someone who is pro-choice as long as the war against “Islamofascism” continues.
America will not elect a Black or female president. It won’t happen.
So where that leaves us, I have no idea. I’m rather frightened.
Frightened of what? That the Republican will win? That would be a disaster, but we’ve survived much worse.
Or frightened that the decision of the ballot box will be overturned by chicanery, or by gunfire?
Pretty much. Up until recently he’s either kept his remarks vague, talking about candidates who are slick or two-faced without naming names, or he’s criticized Clinton’s positions but not her personally. But now he’s criticizing her directly.