I think most people realize that even with a small NDP lead in the polls, the Conservatives will still win power and the most seats given that most NDP supporters are urban and many constituencies are rural. A lot of Liberal voters will have to be convinced that the NDP is less risky than Ford and that Wynne can’t.
It’s a tough call. I like the PC much more than its leader. Some odd candidates and lack of policy inspire little confidence. NDP has some good ideas but many expensive ones at a time when responsible budgeting is sorely needed as well as a troubled history. And the Liberals are, once again, a little too smug and carry the weight of some truly terrible policies.
You cannot seriously say ‘responsible budgeting’, and be talking about voting PC! First he promised to release his budget to pay for his platform before the election, but now, no can do! Won’t be released till after! How is that, in any way, shape or form responsible budgeting?
I really can’t see him winning if he isn’t going to even attempt to explain how he’s gonna pay for all those crazy promises he’s making. Yknow, till after the election. Sorry but that’s a ridiculous strategy, in my opinion. It screams that he’s in WAY over his head. Or, he believes that PC voters are truly the ultimate low information voters, maybe?
This isn’t really the case. The Conservatives have an advantage because of the ridings in the GTA, not rural ridings. And a lot of Liberal voters have already been convinced, that’s why the left vote is coalescing around the NDP. That’s why they have a small lead and the Liberal poll numbers are in the toilet. From the CBC poll tracker page:
Missed the edit window. Although I have to say as NDP go, Andrea Horwath seems pretty decent. I don’t agree with the more extreme elements of the NDP, which is what keeps me from voting for them normally, by Andrea doesn’t seem to be one of them.
The CBC poll tracker is now projecting the PCs at 66 seats. That’s very close to a hung Parliament; majority is 63.
If the PCs come in first in seats but under 63, the NDP could form a government with Liberal support - the flip of the Peterson - Rae arrangement back in 1985.
Who knows? Maybe the Greens will pick up a couple and it could be an NDP-Green coalition. It all depends on the numbers of course. Although it is very unlikely the Greens will win even 1.
This is crazy, isn’t it? With almost any other leader the PCs would have sailed to victory but they had to choose a polarizing bozo who can’t even cobble together a party platform or get his promises costed out.
What’s crazier is that he’s always effectively been trading on the Ford name for his notoriety and his fame. A name mostly besmirched by the builder of the Ford Nation.
How does anything about how THAT played out lead to a political career for a brother sharing that last name? How is it a political plus? The last one was an embarrassment to the city on the world stage, let’s give his brother a shot?
It is behavior such as that that has Ford attracting flies in this election. He is a bad person who attracts further bad people. He is also an incompetent person who attacks other partiesè economic platforms without even having one for his own party. It would be a mistake to believe that upon his party winning the election that he would suddenly change his ways.
People can disagree on the distinction between suburban and rural areas, which are in flux around the GTA and parts of Southwestern Ontario. Ultimately, the NDP needs to convince Liberals to vote otherwise or the Conservatives will win a majority. Ford has already made his gaffes by not taking up the traditional Conservative position of fiscal responsibility, which would in fact help him. Personally choosing candidates, vitriolic language and a mixed record are less helpful… but he does know how to play to his supporters, who forgive him a great deal, in part since he is not Wynne nor the NDP.
I think it’s more the fact that there’s no alternative for a righty voter. The Liberal voters can feel somewhat safe voting NDP, the platform for the most part isn’t that different. Here’s a CBC article discussing how the polling is show that is in fact happening:
Ford will probably win. Unless he accuses Ontario voters of “being after my Lucky Charms”, or talking to the media.
There are probably people who will vote for Ford who don’t admit it to friends (although in my experience Ford voters are refreshingly blunt). Maybe the same is true for Horwath, who got so much media attention her name was misspelled early in this thread.
So why the endorsement? Perhaps that’s what the Post/Sun media owners directed the editors to write? Just like in the 2015 (and 2011, 2008, 2006) federal elections? Or the 2014 Ontario & 2015 Alberta general elections? IMHO bought and paid endorsements don’t mean much in our information soaked democracy, however Sun media was practically doing free campaigning for the Tories and this sits uneasy for me.
