A large contact tracing study out of India shows children to spread infection more than in previous studies and finds that super spreaders may be the key to rates of infection.
This is the study cited in the article.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/09/29/science.abd7672
As for mortality within age groups,
Some differences in age group findings in India and the US. Infection rates were higher among children in India.
That is a very interesting article and the figure 2 in particular is fascinating, if taking some thought to parse out.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/early/2020/09/29/science.abd7672/F2.large.jpg
First of all the article confirms in the Indian population what has been seen otherwise, the role of superspreaders. And in figure 4 confirms that there are similarly relatively few cases of COVID-19 in the Indian 17 and under population. But most pertinent to this thread it also confirms what was previously seen in smaller studies early on, that kids are NOT spreading to adults much even in these crowded circumstances. Instead what is found is that given a child who is infected (an index case) the odds, especially for those 14 and under, are that they have contacts near their age also infected. (Of course they could be the source or they could be all infected by the same single adult, but the assumption of the authors is that they are the source.) But children who are identified index cases have very very few adult contacts who are positive in both all-contact and high-risk contact circumstances. Moreover, when a child 14 and under is an infected contact the index was almost always an adult in their 30s to 40s. And an adult infected contact very rarely had a child index case (see C12).
VERY reassuring.
Meanwhile also this week is more reassurance that there do NOT seem to be large amounts of children asymptomatic around (able to transmit effectively or not).
Put together these two articles, are extremely reassuring that kids DO NOT play a significant role as “silent spreaders” to higher risk adults or the community at large, even in the most crowded living conditions (India) and even with high background community transmission rates (Italy).
Thanks for the study, which is interesting. Double-plus-good thanks for the study, which is very reassuring indeed. Surprisingly so.
Speaking of pertinent, it was already pointed out that elementary to middle students not transmitting the virus as much as high schooners or adults does not take away the fact that the ones with the most danger, like teachers or staffers, have their risks increased still. Again, not much for the students but for the older adults in the schools. (Although the study you quoted still has to add a “could be reconsidered” it does not really makes it as reassuring as you assume)
Anecdote is not data, but since my child went back to daycare in the summer we have been sick three times! None of those times has been Covid. (Twice it lasted for only a day or two, and the third time lasted longer but coincided with some elementary schools starting so a bunch of people went to get tested – nope, just a cold.) So the kids are happily passing around all kinds of germs! Just… not Covid-19.
Not sure I am getting your point. Is there something from how you understand these studies that makes you think that, or is it simply that a person who is working even in an environment of low exposure risk is still at greater risk than if they had no exposure at all?
5) Teachers and staff were infected at a rate of 0.19 percent, more than twice the rate of students
Whatever you think about the rate of student infection, one thing is clear: The rate for teachers and staff is higher. In the Covid dashboard sample, 0.19 percent of teachers and other adults in schools had a confirmed infection between the end of August and mid-September. When you add in suspected cases, the rate rises to 0.61 percent.
The difference between staff and student infection rates adds to an existing body of evidence suggesting that opening schools poses a greater risk to adults than to children. From data in the US and abroad, “we know that if you have limited control measures in place, and have transmission going on in the school, that it is likely that teachers would become infected,” Guthrie said.
A study of schools open in the UK this summer, for example, found 70 cases among students (out of about 843,430 total students) and 128 among staff (out of about 519,590 total staff members). The majority of cases linked to in-school outbreaks, as opposed to out-of-school transmission, appeared in staff as well.
The dashboard data underscores the fact that adults in schools appear to contract Covid-19 at a higher rate than children — something especially concerning since they are also more likely to become seriously ill from the virus.
Hey, Donnie Dumbass, even if the virus vanished like a miracle tomorrow like you told us it was going to do in April, it’s too late for the economy to show any noticeable improvement before Election Day.
Still not understanding your point.
Yes adults are of those with confirmed infections much much more commonly than are children. Overall adults rates are 10 to 40 times as high as kids’ rates are depending on the age group. Teachers being only twice as high is indicative of them being at much lower risk than are other adults in other circumstances.
Is that your point?
Can you show me where are studies that talk about items that are twice as high as an unwanted item to be indicative that the persons affected are at much lower risk?
It does not seem to be, how is that a good thing?
What confuses you? The adult general population is at 10 times to much more than the rate in children. Okay that’s U.S. In the U.K. it seems more like 5x plus. Being at twice the rate of children is much less than that, relatively low compared to other adults. Compared to other adults doing other things that is a good thing. Not a magic shield of protection but if accurate at substantially less risk than general population adults.
Relatively lower risk than others of your age group is a good thing. Yes?
Sounds a lot like a smoker’s right proponent from the past; again, relatively lower risk to what?
Huh?
An adult has no option of being a child. Yes adults’ risks must be compared to other adults’ risks.
Another article about the study in post 1142.
This study from a couple weeks ago also sheds some light on whether children can and do transmit the virus to adults.
Taken together, the two studies show that children can and do transmit the virus, that children contract the virus at higher rates than previously thought (albeit not as high as adults) and that children can become super spreaders to adults and children, particularly as more children spread it to other children. That increases the possibility of more super spreaders.
Uh, smokers are adults, again I only see mostly talking points about kids not transmitting this or not being affected much (that are not really so reassuring as Heffalump_and Roo and others point out). That is nice and already acknowledged, it does not refute that you are minimizing the risks for the teachers and staffers thanks to the very inadequate leadership that we have in the USA.
I am seriously not making any sense out of what you are saying. Yes smokers are adults and adult smokers have higher mortality rates than matched non-smokers. Teachers are adults. According to your source they have twice the rate of COVID-19 than kids. Other U.K. adults have five times the rates of kids.
The study in Science of transmission in India saw very little (not zero) transmission from children to adults.
Yes it does happen, uncommonly but non-zero. They can and do at low rates. There will cases seen in which such occurs given all the cases that happen.
But you have made some false statements. The numbers of cases in children in India was low, similar to US rates. I linked to the figure that shows that. What it demonstrated in regards to kids is that an index positive child may have positive child contacts at rates similar to adults. It also clearly shows that most positive contact kids seem to have had an adult index case.
That was the point. There seems to be still a very cavalier attitude to the risks teachers and staffers are being put through in the US.
Look I am skeptical of the numbers the article cited as fairly small n and selection bias, but if one was to go by them working in a school LOWERS an adult’s risk compared adults who do not work in schools.
It may even be true as their jobs put them in less close adult to adult contact than other many adults face, and under strong mitigation behavior guidance. And IF a contributing reason for the lower rate of infection in children is more recent and frequent exposures to the other hCoVs, well like pediatricians, teachers are an adult group with such frequent and relatively recent exposures.
But what it most certainly does NOT support is that teachers and staffers go into work are at higher risk than other adults are.
Let’s look at it another way. Some crude rough math.
The average daily rate in the U.K. “between the end of August and mid-September” (roughly three weeks?) ranged from 16 to 53/m. Let’s pick a low middle number of 30. 30/m/d times 21d times .52 million total staff members = 328 expected confirmed cases among U.K. staff members in schools if they are at average risk for U.K. adults. Call that “between the end of August and mid-September” just two weeks and it’s down to 218. Total actually with confirmed infections was 128. A MUCH lower rate of confirmed infections among adults not working in schools. All the more shocking given that I would hope and expect that school staffers would be getting tested on lower suspicion than the average citizen and have fewer missed cases.
There is really no way to spin the numbers that article cited as other than reassuring for teachers that they are at fairly LOW risk compared to other adults. The fact that kids, even when likely being tested at the slightest sniffle or headache complaint, are much lower numbers, does not make their risk worse.
Right away one can notice a pernicious cherry pick, that was acknowledged already, you are mostly looking there at the numbers for elementary or middle schools. That changes a lot for high school and colleges.
So of course there is another reason why to dismiss your cherry pick, the US is not really a very civilized country.
