I can. In summary, she screwed up.
She doesn’t actually show her math, but she made the mistake of linking to the data that she uses. I’ll note that she claims to be using four weeks of data, both outside and inside of school to do the comparison. While she might very well do that for outside, for schools her data shows two weeks, at least according to the data itself. Therefore we’re already off to a shaky start. As for the rest, this quote was key to me:
This side-by-side comparison of the New York data focuses on the period between Oct. 12 and Nov. 6. For clarity, I’ve divided all Zip codes in the state — 1,071 total — into six “buckets,” based on the prevalence of covid-19 in those communities. The lowest bucket includes all Zip codes with fewer than three covid cases per 100,000 people; the highest includes Zip codes with 20 or more cases per 100,000 people; the rest are distributed in between.
To plot each bucket along the x-axis, I calculated the population-weighted average of covid cases within each grouping. For example, the average for the lowest bucket is two cases per 100,000 people; for the highest, it is 28 cases per 100,000 people.
So we have a baseline known case rate for the general population of 0.0280% for the WORST areas
Using the data that she so helpfully linked to, we get the following data (remember, this appears to be just two weeks worth, so the truth could be twice as bad).
Known student cases of all schools: 936
In-person enrollment (remember, most schools are hybrid, so many kids aren’t in class): 1,329,362
We have a known case rate of 0.0704% which is over twice the rate of the WORST performing bucket in the general population.
Let’s pretend that all students are in school (the data shows total enrollment so why the hell not): 2,422,891 for a case rate of 0.0386%. That is still far larger than the WORST performing bucket in the general population.
Her methods appear flawed in many other ways, but once that schools are performing far worse than the worst hit areas in general, I stopped digging.