Oral arguments today in the SCOTUS/New York gun carry case

Here is the full oral argument:

My thought is that it doesn’t look like a huge slam dunk win for the pro-carry side. Kavanaugh and Barrett in particular seem to want to rule very narrowly so as to dunk the consequences that naturally flow from Heller and which I have talked about in other threads.

I predict that the discretionary permit system will be struck down, but the Court will simply punt in what is the guaranteed next area of debate, that is that these states will have “shall issue” permit systems but now define “sensitive areas” as pretty much everywhere, making the victory a hollow one and forcing other litigants to come back years from now and argue against about how a ban on carry on, say, the New York City subway system, is a reasonable restriction when that would all but deny many workers who rely on subway transportation the ability to carry guns for self defense.

I hope I’m wrong and that there is some guidance on what a “sensitive place” is, and Heller screwed that up by mentioning it to begin with and without much historical support.

What does anyone else think?