Yesterday’s presidential election in Belarus returned a purported 82% of the vote for incumbent Alexander Lukashenko, but observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe say the election did not meet international standards for a free and fair election. The opposition is calling for a new vote. http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/europe/03/20/belarus.poll.results/index.html
In view of what happened in Ukraine in 2004 – the “Orange Revolution,” which succeeded with international support – should Lukashenko be worried? Or is Belarus just not important enough for any outsiders to bother interfering?
Other than the outrageous margin by which this guy won, is there any actual evidence that the vote wouldn’t have gone his way even without tampering? Of course, Belarus campaign rules weren’t exactly what we’d call fair, but I don’t think the government of that country has much pretense at being a Western Democracy. They have aligned themselves with Moscow, not Brussels, so I what can the OSCE do? Nothing.
Sadly, I thnk this oppositon will be crushed. Belarussians are not Ukranians and haven’t shown, AFAICT, a strong affinity to be part of Europe (as opposed to being in the Russian sphere of imfluence).
Russia and Belarus are just as much members of the OSCE as Belgium is. The EU isn’t in a good position to do anything because of the close ties to Russia, but why should the OSCE have more power over countries close to the EU?
Thanks for the correction. But still, what can the OSCE do? What has it ever done in this type of situation? Color me skeptical that the OSCE will do anything.
It could convince the Byelorussians that paying market prices for gas and loosing all kinds of beneficial treatment from Russia is somehow worth it to them. Its really not - they care not to be in NATO and as they saw all too well with Ukraine, dreams of EU ascension don’t really keep you very warm (or pay pensions) during the winter once the fuel stops flowing. It wasn’t worth it for Ukraine either considering how miserable things have gotten there since. Until the west can offer something on par with cheap gas, which makes or breaks their fragile economies, Lukashenko stays.
