Well technically Bernier isn’t a member of the party so unless he folds his little vanity project into the Conservative party he’s a non-starter.
Kenney, Ford, Moe are existing premiers…Alberta doesn’t seem to like Kenney, Moe is unknown outside of Alberta/Sask, and Ford has baggage. However, Ford can get you seats in Ontario and even provincial left of center voters have some sympathy for the covid bit and have seen the premier mellow.
Brown is a unknown outside of provincial conservatives in Ontario. He may also be too appealing to non-conservatives having come out in favour of gay rights, a revenue neutral carbon tax and accepts man made climate change.
Lewis is an unknown and Pollivier comes across as a self satisfied ass with a tenuous grasp of the truth. A Rat Pack II all to himself.
Leslyn Lewis almost won it last time. I definitely wouldn’t count her our since they’ll be a real desire to pick a strong social conservative. Pierre has got to be the front runner. Is Peter McKay going to run again I wonder? Probably not conservative enough to win.
By the way, Erin O’Toole did win a little bit of respect from me. I will say he definitely tried to turn the CPC around, but the crazies are in fact running the asylum now so he never stood a chance. I didn’t vote for him in the election in large part because I just could not trust the CPC, and the question for me was 1. who was O’Toole really? 2. could he control the nutbars in the party? I’m glad I didn’t vote for him because I think my fears were justified even though people kept saying “This old thing on the scary social conservative boogyman.”
Whoever the new leader is… they are going to have their work cut out for them. (Obvious comment)
The crazies are feeling empowered now. I would have put Kenney in the running, as I think he’s the type to go after power - but the shit-show at the southern Alberta border is showing that he’s not far enough out on the crazy branch for the liking of the local CPC folks.
The new leader is going to have to balance the central Canada old school conservatives with the Quebec conservatives (what will you give us), with Anti-vaxxers, Western separatists and literal swastika waving nut-bars. Good luck with that.
Ford might have a shot - but only if he immediately punted the crazies out of the party, and dealt with any dissidents with Harper-esque strong arm techniques. And I don’t see that happening.
And this guy would pretty much destroy the CPC, as I think he’s roundly disliked by most, even within his own party. He’s no populist. I don’t think Canadians have much appitite for a slimy, weasely insult comic.
And this is the biggest problem they have. I’m an old school Red Tory type, who would really like there to be a credible alternative to the Liberals again. I’m exactly the sort of person the CPC needs to bring back into the fold if they want to win an election, but they keep dropping the ball. Sure, if you listened to every other sentence O’Toole said, he sounded like the kind of candidate I’ve wanted for years now, but he kept screwing that up by saying the exact opposite things every time he started talking to the fringe crowd.
At this point, I can’t imagine the current party nominating anyone I would vote for.
Bernier is busy heading up the Nazi Party of Canada, no time for the CPC!
I don’t see why a failed leader of a provincial party would get any traction nationally.
I think many have been pleasantly surprised by Ford’s fairly reasonable leadership. I don’t fault him just because his late brother was crazy. But if I were a conservative, I’d seriously worry that he doesn’t have the smarts to build national appeal amongst all our different factions. For all his odious faults, Harper was able to do that, at least for a time.
Except there’s also a lot of people in Ontario who are pissed off at him for his lack of leadership during the pandemic. He started off strong at the beginning, but over time, he’s slid back into all the typical Conservative BS, plus added a whole lot of poorly thought out wishy-washy pandemic response stuff. A lot of those like myself who were somewhat surprised by him early in the pandemic have reverted to “Oh god, Doug Ford…” mode.
Not that this disqualifies him as a candidate, of course, but I don’t think he’ll be the Ontario breakout candidate some think he’d be.
I think the CPC likely came up with the right answer for the wrong reasons. Erin the tool was simply a right winger who bent over backwards to look more to the centre of Canadian politics and the hard right in the party didn’t like that. I’m sure the centrists weren’t impressed with him pandering to the lunatic truckers rally participants who vandalized monuments like the Terry Fox statue, the tomb of the unknown soldier, stole food from homeless people and abused restaurant workers and violated as many Covid policies as possible. I’m hoping they pick another leader that’s unelectable but no doubt the print media in Canada will continue it’s best efforts to help get them elected.
Ford has done a reasonable job, in my view, of handling Covid. This does not imply I agree with the poor initial preparations (some of which preceded him) or several of the specifics. But all told, he surpassed my expectations, listening to advice, turning down the blame, showing some sympathy and weighing decisions against reality - doing an adequate job overall. Not all agree.
On other things, his performance has varied. Ford is polling at 30-35%. But the NDP and Liberals were both 25-30% and as usual Ford or Conservatives outside of the West will need an evenly divided left-moderate vote to pull through. Del Duca needs to do much more to make his presence felt. Horvath has done a good job in some respects but less good in others. I do not see an easy win for Ford but suspect he will prevail unless the unions and other interests succeed in a strategic vote.
As for the national CPC, this would be a tough job to want. I am sure it will be offered to Harper and that he will politely run away.
Struggling Ontario families won’t forget how Ford passed on a deal for $10 a day daycare, with Ottawa, that pissed off a LOT of people.
He handed B Mulroney an award AFTER the care homes he was on the board of, had the worst practices according to the army medicos that stepped in to help. A LOT of people lost their elders in horrible circumstances. He swore to fix things for care home workers, then did nothing.
He’s sitting on relief money the feds gave him because he’s worried about small deficits for conservative cred instead of helping people/small businesses that he promised.
My bet is any recovery funding will be headed mostly to big corporate sponsors, in the end.
I don’t think Ford has as bright a future as you’re imagining.
Perhaps. I agree with you about problems in long term care homes. I think $10 child care is inevitable and will be announced closer to the election for cynical reasons. Business spending has not been ideal by any means. Things like cronyism and scattershot development might be factors. However, what matters is whether the competition can distinguish themselves in a way the electorate responds to. They have much work to do.
Well now you’re talking about a provincial election. The context here was if Ford could make it as the Federal leader. While the Ontario provincial Liberal and NDP parties might be a mess, on the Federal level, they’re a lot better off. And remember, Ford would likely have three or four more years as opposition leader to screw things up.
And he almost certainly would screw things up trying to juggle the appeal to the voters/appeal to the extremists routines.