Scotland voted by 62 % in favor of the UK staying in the EU. Assuming there will be a new referendum on Scottish independence, is it a done deal that a sound majority will indeed choose independence from the UK?
It’s hardly a done deal, but if memory serves part of the campaign that eventually managed to keep Scotland in the Union last go-around was based on the promise that England would not go dragging Scotland out of the EU with it.
Now that England looks poised to renege on that promise, Scottish independence is at the very least far more likely, albeit by no means an outright certainty.
There was no such promise.
And I suspect that a second referendum is going to be as successful as the first. Unlike Alec Salmond (who was the cunningest campaigner ever) Sturgeon is an amateur. She has gone and announced a new referendum (which she does not have the votes for in the devolved Parliament) without taking any stock of what is an unprecedented situation. (Salmond waited nearly a year after 2011 mandate to ask for and get an agreement).
There is no guarantee that the EU will even agree to keep Scotland rather than simply handing them an application form. I mean why should a subnational entity be able to stay in when the actual member has decided to leave. Why is Scotland any different from London or Birmingham.
Of course there are other questions. Will Scots be able to live with the likelihood, nay certainty that there will be a hard border between them and England. What about the Pound? If Scotland had actually gone independent in Sep 2014, the crash in oil prices would have seen them cap in hand at the IMF, how can they diversify their economy. How will customs, tariffs and standards rules affaecty Scottish businesses, when they inevitably vary in Brexit rump UK? They will find themselves out of their main trading partner.
So I suspect the referndum will see the SNP steamrolled.
I think the theory is that they’d vote for independence and then no longer be a “subnational entity” but their own proper country. As for how the EU would handle admission (or re-admission?) of an independent Scotland would be interesting to watch.
On the other hand, it is virtually guaranteed that such an application would be accepted and expedited. Several EU heads of state already said they’d be happy to welcome an independent Scotland.
Which ones? There are many which are pretty dead set against Scotland becoming a member in anything but normal timetable, like Spain, who don’t want their own secessionist regions to get ideas.
Sturgeon is going to have to campaign on the promise that Scotland would automatically become a member of the EU, one which she cannot guarantee and not likely deliver.
Otherwise, its “lets get out of the UK (no matter what a cluster-fuck that divorce is going to be Brexit or no Brexit) and then negotiate European accession”, with no firm timetable to do anything at all.
She realistically cannot promise to keep the Sterling, or the Common Trave Area or shipbuilding jobs in Scotland, and certainly not promise a welfare state based on petroriches, all of which Salmond could at least argue had for.
(In other posts here and elsewhere, I have been corrected that SNP, while not having a majority probably already has the support of enough MSP’s to get a new referendum through, thanks for that info).
I think Sturgeon feels she can strike while the iron is hot and seize the moment, but I’m not sure that’s actually true. For one, as AK84 says, she may not even have the votes in the Scottish Parliament to get a referendum at the moment. For two, during the last campaign North Sea oil was still looking fairly good–nowadays that just isn’t the case. It’s likely we’ve entered possibly a generational long level of oil prices that make expensive offshore North Sea drilling unprofitable. Scotland would be in far worse economic shape if it left now versus 2014, and the voters there would invariably have to factor that in and it would make it possible that they lose this referendum even worse than the one in 2014.
Finally from a political perspective, the UK has yet to make known when it plans to invoke Article 50, it could be a few years, and then once it’s invoked it’s a few years after that to take effect. During that time a tremendous amount of negotiating within Britain and between Britain and the EU will occur, frankly I think it’s premature for Scotland to vote on independence while all of that is going on, because they have no clear picture of what their options are.
Just to address this point, but the Greens have indicated that they would support the SNP in legislating for a second indyref. That’s a majority.
It’s early days, and as before Westminster has to agree to a referendum. I suspect that they will have other matters on their mind for a good while yet.
And I suspect that unlike Cameron in 2012, whoever is incharge at No 10 will have lots and lots of reasons not to be nearly as accommodating.
Indeed. The next Prime Minister’s to-do list is going to very long, very daunting and very time-limited.
One suspects that on top of the to-do list is “never allow a referendum on any subject ever.”
What Boris said in his speech on remaining the “United” Kingdom was I thought indicative of what he intends to do. Best case scenario he or whomsoever is in charge agrees to a referendum only with firebreaks, like say a supermajority requirement, or a minimum percentage of eligible voters, or insist that a referendum only happen ater a proposed settlement is reached. Worst case, s/he will simply tell Sturgeon et al to piss off.
Yes she does, with the agreement of the Scottish Greens who have 6 MP’s and have declared support for a new referendum if the UK votes to leave the EU. Scotland is gone and “great britain” is no more.
I am boring myself silly making this point over and over on here, apologies if I am boring anyone else: there is a fairly strong link between Scotland’s oil wealth and the likelihood of independence. It’s no coincidence modern Scottish nationalism grew with the discovery of North Sea oil. If Scotland refused independence when oil was nearly $90 per barrel we will be even less likely to grab independence if oil is anywhere near current levels.
Your argument is rational and not emotional. Have you not been paying attention to the current election cycle? Scottish MP’s have already said they want an indyref2 now not later. It’s likely to happen.
The Scottish Parliament does not have the power to call a referendum on this topic, the status of the Constitution is expressly reserved to Westminster and unlike the soon to be former PM in 2012, no one in Westminster is going to be in any hurry to be accommodating on the matter.
Cameron agreed to the 2014 referendum because he thought (correctly) that NO would win. Cameron agreed to this one because he thought (very wrongly) reman would win. I don’t forsee any government in future agreeing to such a referendum on a constitutional question.
That would rather undermine the validity of the EU referendum.
If a majority at Holyrood calls for a referendum and the London parliament vetos it, then it will cause a constitutional crisis. England won’t go to war to prevent Scotland leaving, so if Scotland wants to leave it will happen.
I agree, the chances of another Scottish referendum have increased. It’s the outcome of the referendum I am questioning. Some people think we are more likely to vote yes this time. I disagree.
MP’s say allsorts of nonsense. Sturgeon may soon call for another referendum. However, I don’t believe she thinks this is the optimum time to do so. Her hand may be forced into it though.
You disagree because you voted for Leave. All the evidence indicates you are wrong. The UK will break up over this vote, if it actually goes ahead and leave the EU.
Wangland (eg Wales and England) will not be so great anymore.
I won’t take your comment too seriously as your are bordering upon trolling.
History is full of instances where England or Britain’s continental opponents have placed too much hope on the Celtic fringes undermining England/Britain. It’s also full of instances where Celt’s have expected too much support from England’s continental enemies. Scotland may indeed go independent. However, a low oil price and the Spanish fear of Basque separatism will mean a United Kingdom has more than a fighting chance of surviving intact.