That they don’t love us as much as we thought they would?
That we suck as nation builders?
This quasi colonial crap is harder than it looks?
What?
I’d put aside all that well-poisoning and say the biggest disappointment in the operation is the continued inability to snag Saddam himself.
On reflection, this shouldn’t have been that surprising, though. Saddam appointed most of his inner circle from his own clan/village. Given the tribal lines that Arab politics usually follow, these people don’t really gain anything by betraying Saddam. Even after his death, the cronies won’t be accepted by whatever new government takes form. They’re just as likely, in fact, to end up facing a firing squad (or just a single bullet in the back of the head) themselves sooner or later.
It might be well-poisoning, but the first point- the lack of a warm reception from the Iraqi people, does appear to have taken the Administration by surprise.
The biggest surprise to the Administration, I think, was how the resistance has solidified. I think they expected SOME resistance, but felt that, once the main Iraqi field army was destroyed, that it would be fairly minor…something we could handle fairly easily.
I think that they did NOT expect people to pour in from other countries to kill their own, real live American, as I believe that THEY thought that, with the destruction of the Taliban with such easy, as well as the ease with which we basically walked through Iraq, that the folks of the region would be fairly cowed. Was rather a shock to the administration when this DIDN’T happen, IMO.
-XT
I think that the scale of the looting surprised them–I’ll never forget the pictures of orphans whose blankets had been stolen right off their beds by their fellow Iraqis. I think they underestimated the ruthlessness and twisting of basic morals of a people who have been so brutally surpressed that it’s been surmised a large percentage are actually mentally ill at this point.
I think the rifts between ethinic groups, who really should have better things to do than fight each other, surpised them.
I think that the willingness of (admittedly very few) Iraqis to attack internationally respected forces of Good–The UN! The Red Cross!–has been pretty shocking.
I think that the survival of Saddam and the fact that some people are using him a resistance point (the jerks who killed the poor Spanish soldiers today and danced on the corpses, chanting praises to him) surprised them. Saddam must be caught or killed to provide closure and a sense of moving on for too many these people.
The interesting side question (and I don’t think I know the answer) is whether the administration was genuinely surprised not to find WMD, or whether they knew all along that there weren’t any.
Of course, it’s possible that the various players in the administration weren’t all coming to this operation with the same knowledge. Some may actually have been surprised, while others may have been lying through their teeth from the outset.
I fear we may never know the answer to that one.
I think that a better question would be what exactly did not suprise this administration? Other than the initial attack what went according to plan?
Apologies to early out’s idea, but I think not finding any WMD after (more or les) completely controlling Iraq for 6 months has shocked them.
I think if they had been able (as I truly believe they thought they would) to produce thousands of mustard gas shells and scores of missles with VX warheads capable of reaching most middle eastern Capitols, then the “justness” and “correctness” of the war would be proved. Europe and Islamic coutries would line up and all would be (more or less) forgiven on all sides.
If I thought the administration was lying, I’d say the lack of WMD surprised them.
If I thought the administration was incompetent, I’d say the toughness of building a nation surprised them.
If I thought the administration lacked a basic understanding of world affairs, I’d say the lack of Iraqi support surprised them.
I’ll stick with incompetent ignorance on this one. But the ‘liars’ option is tempting.
Funny enough I didn’t think Saddam’s “survival” was such a surprise. Afterall they were trying to kill him with bombs… so in truth the US wasn’t exactly expecting to get a body to show off. Even if Saddam was dead… how do you prove he is until you find body parts to make DNA tests on ? Then how do you convince people that a small amount of dead meat is their former dictator ?
Of course they are surprised no one has ratted on him yet. That loyalty to the regime would persist.
Otherwise I agree with Sterra… just about everything was a surprise to the americans once the “hostilities” were over. The biggest surprise though was how Iraqi society just broke up and didn’t take over essential stuff like security, services and work. The Bush gang thought they could make things start working again pretty fast. That the flag waving and cheering (which didn’t happen) would be followed by happy iraqis setting forth to rebuild their own nation. What Rummy didn’t think is that these guys have been told what to do most of their lives… plus hatred of the US, hatred of each other, hatred and fear of the Baathists, etc… in other words a real and complex country.
The biggest surprise for the Bush administration, in **every **issue, is that there are people in the world who do not agree with the Bush administration on every issue. This is the most insular administration I can remember: a small group of people who are of one mindset, who constantly pat each other on the back, totally dismissing anyone else’s opinions.
And they still don’t get it.
Don’t know if the show goes out in the US, but if you ever get the chance to watch “Bremner, Bird & Fortune” it will give you plenty to chuckle at.
This week they were discussing the best person to be put in charge od Iraq to bring it under control
Decided it needed someone with charisma, a forceful personality who could bring the disparate factions under control … basically somebody like SH (the description was longer and funnier but you get the drift)
Well, I think it says a lot about the differences between Europe and America that anybody could find that remotely funny.
How so?
That’s absolutely hilarious. Especially since we’re showing little interest in bringing actual “democracy” to Iraq. The current administration could use a dictator with the stubbornness and personal drive of Hussein.
“Yes, old chap, just what those little wogs need, eh, some strong man to take them in hand because heaven knows they don’t care about freedom like us. Why is that silly cowboy even trying? More gin?”
Nonsense. If we really cared about giving them freedom, do you think we’d be banning demonstrations that criticize our occupation, choosing which candidates will be allowed, and coming up with a plan for “democratic” elections only after chiding from the UN?
Not to mention the way we’ve been handling Afganistan.
I don’t know if you can use the word ‘surprize’ unless we’re talking about wishful thinking that just did’nt come around.
The first disappointment is Turkey’s failure to let us use their country as a staging base for an invasion from the north. This allowed the Fedayn to disperse and later regroup as a guerrilla movement. (see Friedmans oped in the NYT yesterday or the day before)
The second has to be the devisive nature of the disparate ethnic groups. Or as Hunter Thompson has less politically characterised the Fundamentalists here in our own cherished land: ‘how come the bible never said anything about a bunch of jabbering Yahoos’
The third dissapointment has to be plain ol’ predudice against the US of A.
Oh yeah, and the needlly fact that the wimps in Europe would’nt jump in like we did, both feet first.
And then there’s the “needlly fact” that the wimps in Europe turned out to be right.
panache45: methinks Eric II was speaking tongue-in-cheek; w/o a smiley to offest it though, who can know for sure.
And speaking of knowing for sure: while I found almost all of the above mentioned “surprises” interesting and credible, I would like to point out that the music hasn’t stopped playing (yet), and no one in the W admin. is running about looking for chairs w/ regards to the mess -, er, “situation,” in Iraq.
Though I admit that they might be sizing each other up and positioning themselves discretely.
I am wondering if any professional gamblers are taking bets yet on whether or not any WMDs might turn up in Iraq right when W’s numbers are seriously flagging in the re-election polls.