Is this a real possibility or is this evidence of overconfidence.
The problem is that Obama has no real coattails for House candidates to ride. People aren’t voting for Obama as much as against Romney so there is no real mandate supporting Obama’s work as president. I think that people will vote based on local issues and local Republican candidates tend to be more middle-of-the-road than national Pubbies.
I say Republicans control the House with 220-230 seats based on the incumbant advantage.
It certainly seems more possible then it did a few months ago. The article Pelosi is talking about is probably the best argument for believing it will happen (its linked from the article you link to). And Obama seems to have done a good job in the last month exciting voters, while Romney (and Ryan) seem to have done an equally good job turning them off, and I think both men will have an influence down-ticket.
I still don’t think I’d put money on it. Twenty five seats is a lot to make up, but I don’t think I’d be willing to put money against it anymore, which I might’ve been tempted to do a few months ago.
I think it’s a real possibility. It isn’t that Obama has great coattails, it’s that Romney is radioactive. I think the 47% tape (thank you, Mother Jones and Grandson of Carter) is going to poison all Republicans on the ticket.
It’s unlikely, but obviously way more plausible than it was a month ago. It would be a “rising tides lift all boats” scenario where all of the toss-ups and maybe a dozen “lean R” districts flip. More likely is a 10-15 seat Dem pickup.
Well, I guess she’s right that they might, just as it might rain drops of golden honey from the sky that, if eaten, instantly transforms your body into the very picture of perfect health. Both might happen, but they won’t.
Is this projection, or “feeling”?
There are two kinds of coat-tails: persuading people to vote for Democrats to help the President, and getting more people who vote straight D ballots to turn out to vote.
Even if Obama lacks the first, all the current evidence suggests he will have the second.
Projection although I may stand corrected if Obama’s approval rating stays elevated and it’s not a post-convention bump.
Intrade has it at 23%, or less than the odds of Romney winning.
I don’t see how it happens. The big sea changes I can think of - Newt’s nationally-run house effort in 1994, and the disgrace-of-Mark-Foley election of 2006, had big narratives around them - the message was hammered again and again that voters were voting for the congress, rather than their own rep.
In general, people hate congress but think their own rep is an exception, and a pretty good person. Name recognition alone is often enough to win. Sways of more than 20 seats require a huge national effort or scandal. That’s not happening this time.
The problem is that Romney has put everyone running under the GOP label into the position of having to endorse his view that 47% of the country is a bunch of useless parasites (alienating a wide swath of middle-class voters) or having to distance themselves from it (alienating the hardcore base that writes the checks and does the scutwork).
The other problem with the premise that people are voting against Romney is that it is false. To my knowledge, every poll that has asked the question shows that Obama voters are overwhelmingly voting for him and not against Romney, whereas the reverse is true for Romney. (Example)
How much overlap do you think exists between people who disapprove of Obama’s job performance and people who will vote for him?
It’s still extremely unlikely at this point.
The convention was weeks ago. The bump is now due more to Romney’s clusterfuck of a campaign than about the conventions.
I’ll guess it’s unlikely due to US voters’ tradition of wanting a split government, to keep both parties honest and compromising. Hey, it doesn’t always work.
It isn’t so much a matter of changing D to R, but convincing those who already R to behave in a more adult and appropriate fashion.
If they were adults and appropriate, they wouldn’t be Rs to begin with.
I think this election there is a significant overlap. Mrs. Cad for example would not approve of Obama’s performance in a survey but would never vote for Romney becuase he is such a fuck up. From what I hear around me she is not alone and if Romney could pull his head out of his ass and run a competent campaign he could have a chance.