A couple months ago, when Bob Hope reached 100, I remember saying, “He’s gonna die this year, just like most other 100-year-olds.” And this had nothing to do with his health. It seems that a lot of people reach the age of 100, and die that year, before reaching 101. It’s almost like they kept themselves alive to reach that milestone, then just let go.
So is there a statistical difference between percentage of 99-year-olds reaching 100 and percentage of 100-year-olds reaching 101? If plotted on a graph, is there a little glitch in the curve at that age?
x-ray vision: John Adams and Thomas Jefferson both died on July 4, 1826, the 50th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence. Easily verified in numerous references.
Using data from the Social Security Death Index, I plotted the number of deaths recorded of people who died in their 95[sup]th[/sup] through 105[sup]th[/sup] years, and produced this graph. It looks like a pretty standard bell curve distribution, though it is only accurate to the year of birth, not whether the deceased made it to 100 or not.
The social security table posted by Snake Hips would seem to prove you wrong. If you live to 100 you have a 50% chance of living another 2.6 years.
[hijack] I found it interesting to note the likehood of dying between 86-87 was almost exactly the same as dying in Vietnam if you were in a rifle company. [/hijack]
In other words, if a person was born in 1902 and died in 2002, this graph would not indicate whether he had died before or after his 100[sup]th[/sup] birthday, only that he had died in his 100[sup]th[/sup] year of life.
Well, actually I did find several sources that discussed Jefferson’s last hours. This one summarizes as well as any of the others:
Adams died a few hours later at Quincy, Massachusetts. His last words were “Thomas Jefferson survives.” He did not know that Jefferson had died earlier in the day.
I have heard that very old people have an increased chance of dying in the few weeks after their birthday. Otherwise, I would be eager to disbelieve this dying-at-100 thing.