Here’s how I see it, BrainGlutton
The current Conservative party is a marriage under somewhat odd circumstances of two former parties, the Canadian Alliance (think Christian social-coinservative Republicans minus most of the lunatic element), plus the Progressive Conservatives (think big-business Republicans). Together with a few very fringe parties who never got a seat federally, these parties shared the right wing of the vote.
The Progressive Conservatives had power and a majority government back in the eighties, the Reagan/Thatcher era, and were very chummy with those leaders. They helped push through the NAFTA “free trade” treaties, they support the WTO, etc. However, in a reaction to corruption, they spectacularly imploded at the ballot box during one election (1992?) and went to just two seats in federal Parliament.
The Canadian Alliance grew out of the Reform Party, which arose during the eighties from Western dissatisfaction. It was always based in Alberta, canada’s most socially-conservative province.
For generations, the Progressive Conservatives had alternated with the Liberals in power. The Liberals are a sort-of catch-all welfare-state centrist party, like the Democrats.
Back during their era in power in the sixties and seventies, the Liberals were vary nationalist and dirigiste under the leadership of the charismatic Pierre Trudeau, though later during the eighties, and out of power, they went rightwards. During the nineties they returned to power and their finance minister Paul Martin tamed the deficit monster. For the past seven years, the Liberals have brought in surpluses in the federal budget, and are slowly paying off the national debt.
The Liberals are pretty much the “default” party these days, not least I suspect because they’ve handled fiscal conservatism well*.
In the recent provincial by-election in Ontatio, in a mostly-rural and conservative riding, the provincial Conservatives came out on top, with 50-something percent of the vote, but the Liberals, NDP, and Greens were all fairly close in vote shate, getting something like 19, 14, and 10 % of the vote, respectively.
To me, this means that with the surrent crop of scandals, the Liberals are vulnerable. The more socialist and ecologically-oriented voters are likely to decamp to the NDP and the Greens. It would seem to be an ideal time for the Conservatives to swoop in and gain seats.
However…
If it wasn’t for the Christian social-conservative element, I suspect that the current merged Conservatives would be massively-more popular in Ontario. Remember, Ontario elected the radical Mike Harris neo-conservatives when they controlled the provincial Conservative party.
Not enough Ontarians want a Christian social-conservative party in power to give the merged Conservatives that chance.
I found it interesting that the provincial conservative party in Ontario did NOT change its name from the “Progressive Conservative Party pf Ontario” to simply “Conservative Party of Ontario” to mirror the name of the merged federal Conservative party.
And the Christian social conservatives have even less of a chance in Quebec, which, very roughly speaking, went through its own Quiet Revolution in the sixties to throw off social conservatism and the [Roman Catholic] Church. It now elects a large number of members of the Bloc Quebecios, who in affairs apart from Quebec nationalism tend to vote centre-left, somewhere between the Liberals and the NDP. But matt_mcl could clarify that better than I could.
Together, Quebec and Ontario have over half of the population of Canada, which tends to frustrate Westerners (or Easterners, for that matter), when their views differ from those of the centre.
If the Conservatives could even recast themselves as non-religious social consevatives, they would have a better chance.
When the former leader of the Alliance Party admitted publically that to his Fundamentalist Christan belief that the earth was only 6000 years old, etc, he was mercilessly mocked by political cartoonists and the papers and wasn’t taken seriously after that.
In addition, there are a lot of social conservatives in the big cities who are not traditional Western (i.e.Albertan) Protestant Christian. The Conservatives seem to be making efforts to appeal to the conservative Muslims, Catholics, Sikhs, etc, but then they always seem to shoot themselves in the foot when some party member admits to promoting a specifically Christian agenda.
Unless the social and cultural makeup of Ontario and Quebec shift dramatically toward the Christan conservative, the Conservatives will not win power.
This, IMHO, is the heart of the dispute: the Christan social conservatives outnumber the rest of the members of the merged Conservative party, and want to promote their polices. But the former PC members know that they will never win Ontario and Quebec if they champion Christian social conservatism.
The Conservatives must decide: as a politial party, do they want to follow their principles or do they want to gain power?
[sub]*At least on the surface. Many are arguing that the problems have been transferred downwards, to provincial and municipal governments. But that’s a debate for another thread.[/sub]