Y’all seem to be forgetting that both Kirk and Picard had hand-to-hand fights with Dr. Soran in “Generations,” so we actually have a good basis of comparison. As I recall, Soran tossed Picard around like a rag doll, but got himself punched out by Kirk – and we’re talking old, pudgy, retired Kirk here, not Kirk in his prime.
There is absolutely no question that Kirk would beat the crap out of Picard if they had to go toe-to-toe. I’m not even sure why people continue to have this debate.
Both Kirk and Picard could talk their way out of a fight when they wanted to, Picard tended to do it a bit more eloquently. Both have also had their share of fistfights (though Picard rightly delegates that to the Bash Brothers, Worf and Riker).
Now, I might have said this before, but the only way Kirk would clearly win would be if they had to engage in Ham To Ham Combat.