These are the stats of two real pitchers of the same era who will be eligible for the HOF in the near future. Based on these stats (and there very well may be better stats I’m not including, I’m happy to discuss those as well) which seems to have the better chance at the HOF? In all cases the first number is Pitcher A, the 2nd Pitcher B. (I apologize for not knowing how to code a table…) I’m not leaning either way, I just think it’s an interesting discussion.
These are two pitchers who I consider mortal locks for the hall of fame. Both of the players listed fall short in various areas when compared to either one of these two of these people so if either are hall of fame pitchers, they are lower end (at least in my opinion).
Player A has nearly 300 wins and nearly a .640 Win percentage. The problem is, he’s behind in every other category. The two I mainly concern myself with when picking a Cy Young is K/BB and WHIP (while still having respectable win totals) and Player B wins in both of these. My problem is, is the margin of victory enough to make up 50 odd wins and .041 percentage points? I think WHIP puts Player B over the top for me but it’s pretty much a toss up.
If you’re asking me who would have the better shot when one considers the voters? I’d go with Player A, he’s got the big win numbers and people generally seem to be pretty enamored by that.
I’d probably go with A as being a better candidate. More wins overall, more wins per season, better winning percentage, about the same strike outs per year. ERA+ and WHIP are slightly worse, but I don’t think that outweights the other stats.
I’d just like to announce that I identified each correctly. Thank you.
Of course, that colored my consideration of the candidacy of each somewhat, which I gather is not the point of the exercise. There is one factor that is likely to be of paramount importance when the actual HOF discussion begins, which probably identifies who it is right off the bat (so I won’t come right out with it) and which makes player B clearly a superior candidate in my view. However, even absent that additional factor I think B is definitely the winner, while A is a bit of what they call a “compiler,” although still a decent candidate in his own right.
Yes, I figured that the stats would identify the players if anyone thought about it hard enough , or checked. That’s fine. One of the reasons for the thread is the perception of the two players. Besides the win total, I was surprised at how close the other numbers were. I purposefully did not include the “one factor” Jimmy Chitwood alludes to because, while very impressive, it would have been a dead giveaway. It does matter, however, so in the interest of fairness, their postseason stats (some stats not available):
A looks like a better candidate to me. Compiler, or not. The stats listed in the OP just seem better.
Knowing who they are, I still pull for A. B’s remarks after his almost no hitter have turned me against him forever. But, yeah, B probably will get in more quickly.
I stated somewhere I think A is better than B and might be HoF worthy. B in my opinion falls short but might join his piece of apparel that is in the hall.
I can’t argue with Sabre-heads though, they somehow watch a game that is different from the one I watch. One told me that Wins were the most over-rated stat in baseball. :smack:
The no-hitter (I think it was actually a perfecto bid) was broken up via a drag bunt in the 8th inning. Player B had a lot to say about how this was a classless move, and they were afraid of him, and how Ben Davis, the player who bunted, and his manager didn’t understand the right way to play the game, etc.
Ah. I was thinking of a different lost no-hitter. That one occurred before he played for my team. I remember the incident, but didn’t remember the pitcher.
Actually, looking at old stories from after that game, it doesn’t really seem to be the case that he had that much to say about it. His manager at the time was the one who brought out the accusations of cowardice and ignorance of the right way to play.
Yeah, on further searching, the only remarks of his I can find are these:
*“I don’t know what the school of thought is. I’ve seen a lot of games go late, and I’ve always heard that after the fifth and sixth you earn your way on. It’s a 2-0 game, so I can’t really be out there being [mad] about that, because the tying run is at the plate from that point on, and you’ve got to get outs. But I was a little surprised, yeah.” *.
Yeah. That’s the game. He didn’t say as much as the manager, but he did have a bunch to say about having to “earn” your way on. As if a bunt hit wasn’t earned.
As far as wins go. I wouldn’t say they are useless. But, they aren’t the be all end all people used to consider it.
FWIW, I think statistical analysis like sabremetrics are very valuable looking at what has a player has done. Predicting what they (or a team) will do, is a different matter.
As to A and B, if you left the post-season stats out, I still think A is a better pitcher. The 54-win difference was achieved in 2 less seasons. That’s more than a statistical anomaly. Other than WHIP, the other stats are close enough to be a wash. The post-season counts though and makes it closer for sure.
Before he came to the team I root for, Pitcher A had always passed the Eye Test. After I saw him more often, I’m not so sure. That was near the end of his career, but long enough to get a good look. Other than the post-season, Pitcher B never passed the Eye Test with me.
Neither are first ballot, IMO. I’m not anti-compiler like many are however. Durability and consistency count as far as I’m concerned. Guys like Katt and TJ are stronger candidates than they are often given credit for (I won’t even drag Blyleven into this.) This is where I start to like the idea of a tiered HOF again.
So did I. The K/W numbers are extremely unusual, especially Pitcher B, who is, IIRC, one of only three pitchers in the entire history of baseball with more than 3000 strikeouts but fewer than 1000 walks. And yes, Pitcher B’s remarks after his no-hitter was broken up were classless, but big deal.
I think Pitcher A and Pitcher B are so close as to be indistinguishable. Pitcher A pitched 300 more innings, which is pretty significant - it’s more than a season - and was more reliably healthy, which counts for something. Pitcher B was slightly better inning-for-inning, and is one of the greatest postseason pitchers of all time.
Neither is a mortal lock, but they’d be decent choices.
A probably futile attempt at some nuance follows. There are two different ways to look at a stat-how much it correlates with winning, but also how much it correlates with ability. Wins match up with wins perfectly of course, but they don’t match up with talent all that well. Pitcher B got the win, and that certainly counts in the standings, but his ability didn’t help his team win all that much (his offense and/or bullpen deserve more of the credit). A threw a great game, but…you get the idea. A stat which works the other way is something like stolen bases-they definitely demonstrate the ability to perform larceny on the basepaths, but overall SBs aren’t too helpful when it comes to winning games.
Anyhoo, both of the original pitchers are likely well-qualified for the Hall. A (Mussina) did pitch for better teams than B did (Schilling), which is why his winning % was higher and he won more games (tho he had more starts as B was injured quite a bit). One more thing: Schilling allowed an unusually low number of unearned runs. which may have something to do with his fly ball rate and K rate (but also with the defenses behind him).
From a broad statistical standpoint, perhaps. But now that the two are identified there are significant differences in the track of their careers. Shilling is a guy who would be a world beater in a few select seasons, surrounded by a few 8 win, sub .500, injury plagued seasons. Mussina, after his rookie season, never won fewer than 10, and had only 1 sub .500 season.
From the standpoint of “who do you want on your team”, if you’re going Pick’em for today’s game, and Schilling is healthy and having a good year, go with him. If you’re going Draft mode and you need a guy to anchor your staff for the next decade, I think Mussina is the guy.