It has been some time since the greenback and the loonie have had the same vaule. The US dollar has been on a steady decline against the loonie starting in 2003. 2007 the US dollar took a nosedive. It is currently at $1.04.
So, when do you think the two will match value? Do you think the greenback will drop below the loonie?
Here’s some historical rates over the past 10 years (these are US to CA rates)
Jan 1997 - $1.37
Jun 1997 - $1.37
Jan 1998 - $1.43
Jun 1998 - $1.45
Jan 1999 - $1.52
Jun 1999 - $1.48
Jan 2000 - $1.45
Jun 2000 - $1.49
Jan 2001 - $1.49
Jun 2001 - $1.53
Jan 2002 - $1.59
Jun 2002 - $1.52
Jan 2003 - $1.57
Jun 2003 - $1.36
Jan 2004 - $1.29
Jun 2004 - $1.36
Jan 2005 - $1.22
Jun 2005 - $1.24
Jan 2006 - $1.15
Jun 2006 - $1.10
This year:
Jan 2007 - $1.16
Feb 2007 - $1.17
Mar 2007 - $1.17
Apr 2007 - $1.15
May 2007 - $1.10
Jun 2007 - $1.06
Jul 2007 - $1.05
Today - $1.04
I’m going to guess the two will match in mid Sept. Let’s say Sept 17th. I do think the loonie will outvalue the greenback, but not for long (perhaps a week or so). I expect the pair to match values for the rest of the year.
It won’t happen soon… The CDN economy is built on a high value US dollar. CDN’swill see higher inflation, balance of Trade figures to (if needed) keep their dollar below par.
How so? dump huge CDN foriegn credit against standing USA trade deficit with foriegn markets (China 'owes" Canada 56 billion, USA Owes China 1.4 trillion,CDNpay interest for one day)… CDN dollar stays /floats
FML
That might be because Americans now need a passport to visit Canada, and (in a cunning plot to sabotage the Canadian economy) there’s a long queue to get new US passports.
Let’s see, my wife and I are going to Vegas in September, so I’m going to say September 10th, which is the day we’ll probably buy our traveller’s cheques.
All I can say is that I’m old enough to remember the last time the Canadian dollar reached parity, in the 1970s, and the overall warning is HIDE THE WOMEN!. I have vivid memories of gangs of Canadian “tourists” running wild through our major cities, clutching fistfuls of currency. Luckily, this time the problem can be swiftly dealt with by a few strategic air strikes on the Albertan oil fields…
All I know is that my web-hosting costs, which have been in constant US dollars, have dropped by 30% since 2002.
Wow, I remember the dollars being at parity, but I don’t remember any of the rest of it at all, and we went to Washington DC in 1976. Of course, I was just a kid. Maybe my parents hid much of it from me.
Well, we Canadians have much more recent memories of the last 30 years, when gangs of American “tourists” ran through our major cities, clutching fistfuls of US currency. Hide the women indeed! I guess what goes around, comes around.
No, we won’t. Our monetary policy for the foreseeable future is to keep inflation around 2%. This will only change if the federal government bends to Ontario’s whining and decides to start manipulating the exchange rate. They’ll have to look long and hard to find a Governor of the Bank of Canada who’d be willing to do this; I’d expect to see massive resignations from the central bank in the face of such a stupid policy.
I’ll bet on March 14th, 2008. The Bank of Canada will raise rates another quarter point in September but that’ll be the end of the interest rate hikes(and everybody expects that hike so it won’t do anything to the dollar).
Seems to me they ought to be at par, given the purchasing power and conceptual “size” of each, in both countries. Why was the USD worth more than the CDN for so many years, and why is it falling now? Does Canada supply more of its own needs for petroleum and so doesn’t need to ship as many dollars overseas?
I think getting to “par” is part of the plan. We align the money by giving the US notes color, we issue new dollar coins (again) to get people to start using them (yeah, right), and then we bring the conversion rate to zero. The US flags with the extra stars are already in the storage areas ready for issue, eh?
