Playing in a fantasy HR league; any advice

I was offered the opportunity to play in some sort of fantasy HR league. The rules are as follows:

Select 10 players. They cost 1 point per HR they hit last year, with a minimum cost of 25 points even if they hit fewer in 2013. You have a total of 310 points to spend. No bench players. Prizes to be awarded based on most total 2014 HRs for the roster.
So, if I select Miguel Cabrera, that’s 42 points. If I select Joe Shlabotnik who hit 15 HR last year, that will cost 25 points.
Here’s the team I’m considering (point cost in parentheses):

Jose Daniel Abreu (25 points)
Jose Bautista (28)
Ryan Braun (25)
Miguel Cabrera (42)
Edwin Encarnacion (36)
Prince Fielder (25)
Paul Goldschmidt (36)
Carlos Gonzalez (26)
Giancarlo Stanton (25)
Mark Trumbo (34)

Total cost: 302 points
I don’t have Chris Davis because at 53 points, I’d have to drop at least a couple of players in the 30s to get him.

I wanted to put Matt Adams in, but don’t know who I’d drop.


Correction: Cabrera hit 44 HR last year, so the total is 304.

I’d drop Cabrera - it’s going to be tough for him to repeat that. And if he does, it won’t be more than 4-5. And I’d think about Jay Bruce, Jose Bautista, and Yoenis Coespedes - they have the potential to hit a lot more than they did last year. And wait - what’s the budget? Or do you take the number of HRs they all hit at the end of the year, and subtract what you paid for them?

The budget is 310. It doesn’t have any meaning once you make your selections. It’s a straight “which team hits the most HR” pool.

I already have Jose Bautista (as I do in the league we are both in).

I don’t see dropping Cabrera as having much impact (unless I want to be contrary and figure he might get injured). The only expensive player is Chris Davis; in essence it would be a Cabrera-for-Davis swap and I think Davis will regress this year. Cabrera is much more likely to hit around 40 HR; Davis could hit anywhere from 25-50 without it being a surprise.

Jay Bruce has hit 25, 32, 34, and 30 HR over the last 4 years. What is your logic for expecting a jump-up this year? I’m not saying it won’t happen, I just want to hear the reasoning.

Cespedes is anyone’s guess.

Some of the other players I seriously considered are Chris Carter, Brandon Moss, Troy Tulowitski, Bryce Harper, and Adam Jones. Any opinion on any of those?