I’m not sure we’re even asking the right question anymore. The mutterings in the background about a “Big Bang” in Israeli politics – Sharon, Peres and Lapid joining forces for a true, power-house centrist party – are becoming more and more verbalized as Netanyahu appears to consolidate his hold on Likud.
According to a recent poll, this Sharon/Lapid/Peres party could garner over 30% of the popular vote (38-40 seats in Knesset), while “traditional” Likud and Labor would be reduced to around 14 and 7 seats, respectively. In this scenario, “traditional” Shinui, if it even runs, is wiped out.
My WAG is that you’d end up with: Arabs - 10; Yahad - 6-8; (old) Labor - 6-8; Center 40. Enough to effect the swing of power from right to left, but only with the Arabs as a formal part of coalition. I’m not sure Sharon and his voters are quite ready for that yet; so they might try to bring in (old) Likud instead, which would most likely prodice a stalemate post-haste.
So, is there any chance that either of these hypothetical new formations might lead to, you know, peace? A peace on terms that would more or less satisfy the Palestinians?