Political fallout of transgender bathroom issue

Right up front, let me say that I’m absolutely in favor of transgender rights. People should be able to use bathroom facilities of their identified gender, period, end of story.
That said, as a general liberal and supporter of liberal causes, I’m worried about the recent Obama administration directive concerning bathrooms in public schools.

My worry is that conservatives will use this as a wedge issue to drum up voter turnout and culture wars issues, and that might lead to them retaking the white house, undoing the recent policy, and allowing them to make 2 or 3 supreme court nominations, which will do VASTLY more harm to LGBT causes in the long run than the benefit that comes from having an excellent and correct policy in place for less than a year.
Of course, I realize that as a cis white man, it’s easy for me to cluck my tongue and say “hey, c’mon people, be satisfied with the slow pace of change, I know better than you what’s good in the long term”. But it seemed to me that progress was happening at a steady, if slow, pace. The recent spate of corporations boycotting North Carolina was welcome, and would have been unthinkable not long ago.

Suddenly, however, there’s a direct public tie between the Obama administration and this issue, and there’s no way that Clinton (or Sanders if he pulls out the nomination) won’t get sucked into having to take a stand on it. And middle America will be flooded with scary stories about how the democrats don’t respect your children’s privacy, yada yada.

So am I wrong? Is middle America (to the extent that it exists) more progressive on trans issues than I give it credit for? Is there some other factor I’m overlooking?

I fear that Obama has done exactly and precisely what the right hoped he’d do: given them, as you mention, an issue that will bring people to the polls to vote for GOP candidates (state’s rights! local rights! the right of our children to privacy and safety! etc. etc.)

Dude could have waited until after November 8 to respond to the North Carolina and Texas provocations.

great point; this, precisely, is why people say Obama is divisive. Heck, he can have a “dialogue on race,” why not a “dialogue” on transgender issues, given that America is divided on this, per opinion polling?

He might very well have given a bunch of purple states to Trump. Of course tho, he could be baiting Trump himself to take a stand, and risk either alienating conservatives or provoking liberal outrage.

Trump has already taken a stand on this issue:

He is completely in favor of Transgender rights, and we should be denying them the right to use whatever bathroom they choose, keeping in mind the fact they should be able to use whatever bathroom they choose and they are the worst evil preying on our children, and also we must protect their rights at all times.

Only by doing and not doing this will we Make America Great Again!

I’d be amazed if this turned into any kind of a wedge issue. Not only did Trump come out against the NC-style bathroom bills, as Mr. Polemic pointed out, but Cruz ran hard on the traditional protect-your-women-and-children-from-men-in-their-bathrooms, and couldn’t get any traction. In a Republican primary. In Indiana. If it didn’t play there, I don’t see it playing anywhere.

What makes you think Obama isn’t using this as a wedge issue? Why is school transgender bathroom protocol suddenly some critical issue that needs to be addressed?

A wedge issue is one in which your side is generally united on, but the other side is not. Aren’t the Democrats pretty much united on the transgender bathroom issue?

Because conservative states starting passing ridiculous laws about it, and hundreds of schools asked the DOJ for guidance on Title IX.

One can only hope. Amen. Come, President Trump.

The laws might be “ridiculous”, but it was liberal states (like CA in 2013) that first passed bills regarding transgender bathroom use. Wouldn’t it be fair to say that conservative states acted in reaction to that? Similarly, we saw the flood of legislation against SSM came after it was legalized in MA.

But this issue has been around for years. Why did Obama wait until the final year of his presidency to decide to threaten to go after school districts that didn’t cater to the needs of transgender students? They didn’t realize there was rampant violation of Title IX before?

Title IX does not apply to gender identity. In our system of government, the way to change that is through Congress amending the law, or passing a new one.

Announcing it through executive fiat, complete with threats, is not a representative democracy.

So you desire to have VAST damage done to LGBT causes.

Why? Is the hatred just that strong?

Not sure what part of this is rhetorical and what part is real questions.

Yes, liberals started this. Then there was a conservative reaction, prompting this latest move. Asking “why now” is not significantly different for this than for any other social change, is it?

Lots to say here, but the easiest is this: if the law is so clear-cut then this guidance doesn’t matter. Ultimately, courts will decide.

Note, however, that the treatment of discrimination based on gender identity as a violation of sex discrimination laws goes back two decades. That premise is not new, and has been routinely upheld by courts.

Nm, someone already stated my point.

with regard to Obama’s edict, Trump says he thinks states should decide.

I wish Barack Obama would stop dividing America and unite us. He could help elect a protectionist and isolationist if he doesn’t.

That’s Trump code for “I don’t want to answer a policy question.” See: abortion, minimum wage.

I suspect the OP’s, and similar, fears are exactly the opposite of what we shall see transpire in the next several years. Obama’s action was a response to an attempted wedging. I think that social conservatives will find, to their horror, that their muddle-headed provocations will in the end only have accelerated the pace of the cultural shift. They’d have done better to keep their mouths shut.

I believe some Courts have disagreed with you.

And as Do Not Taunt said, even Republican voters in a republican state like Indiana weren’t moved by this. Looking at polls, most voters, especially young ones, don’t see the big deal about this.

It’s another case where young people are looking at the Republican Party and thinking “that’s not me”. It may lead to a continuing decline of Republicans (and personally, that delights me!).

When a group of people have ‘x’ characteristic, and another group hates everyone with ‘x’ and seeks to oppress them, help me understand: what does uniting them look like?

That is exactly what the school-bathroom memo does. It puts us all on the same page, under the same laws, where everyone has guaranteed rights.

It was the assholes in North Carolina who were dividing us. They’re getting sued, and, with luck, they’ll be put in their place, along with the rest of their old Jim Crow brethren.

You seem to think that Obama’s response to OBVIOUSLY divisive politics (the whole “transgender bathroom thing” was STARTED when some Republican politicians decided to MAKE it big thing)…Is for Obama to ignore it.
So when someone STARTS creating laws that are against a certain group… when there was no problem before… Then its DIVISIVE for the other side to say “NO.”

Okay then.