Funny thing about inspirational candidates. They inspire people: to vote, donate, volunteer, share stuff on social media, and get involved in something they otherwise might not. Even if a candidate doesn’t meet all experience requirements you might lay down for a presidential candidate, being inspirational can more than make up for it. Just ask Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan.
That’s not to say Beto won’t flame out or buckle under the pressure of a bigger stage. But if large numbers of voters and campaign operatives are already getting excited about someone and figuring out how they can raise money for him and work for his campaign, maybe we should pay attention, and not pooh-pooh him away because he’s young/just a Congressman/progressive/inexperienced/not a Rust Belter/etc.
I guess my point is, if people are starting to feel excited about a candidate, why the push-back and resentment? Isn’t excitement a key ingredient to winning? Yes. Yes, it is. We can sit around and look at resumes all day and night, and pick the candidate with the finest work experience and credentials imaginable, but if we don’t pay attention to raw magnetism and the ability to deliver a solid message and raise shitloads of $$, we could be in for a world of hurt. Maybe Beto’s the guy who can do those things, maybe he’s not, but to dismiss him at this point because his resume doesn’t meet a certain standard is silly. Especially given the recent history of presidential winners. Let’s give the guy a chance to show us what he’s made of before we write him off as “frightening.” Hell, I’m even willing to do that for Klobuchar, even though my initial reaction to her is that she’s more boring than a Minnesota snowman in February.
I’m not sure Beto is competent to serve as President, but that is not my chief concern. I’m worried about his chances in November 2020, since, rightly or wrongly, some voters may perceive him as under-qualified.
But, as Happy Lendervedder implies, we should welcome the Beto excitement now. He might make an excellent Veep nomination. And in bringing excitement, perhaps he’ll attract more interest in the eventual nominee even if not Beto.
So … Go, Go, Beto O’Rourke!
(But here’s hoping he doesn’t actually get tapped for the top slot.)
1 ) The leader of this poll ( Beto O’Rourke ) was a nobody 2 years ago and lost his election in 2018. You need more to run on than acting cool.
2 ) Brown seems like a good choice, but he’s not likely to win his home state, which is a must-have state. His voice is low and has a growl to it. Some say he has a " me too " problem, with a restraining order filed against him.
3 ) The choice of none of the above was too popular. When the choice of other is this high, it singles a weak field.
Oh, a “some say”! This specific “some say” may be referencing his divorce in the '80s, which has come up before, including this last election cycle and has those “some who say” labelled by the person claimed to have been the victim as being “shameless” and “disgusting.” That ex-wife is a strong Brown supporter. Is that the “some say” you mean?
No, Ohio is not a must-have state, at least not for the Democratic side. It is one generally considered to be solidly in the GOP’s hands, it went Trump by 8 points (!) … but Brown is a D who has won there consistently and solidly. But Ohio IS a must-have state for a Republican nominee. Mind you Brown doesn’t take Ohio without likely already also winning PA, WI, and MI, (and likely MN) by more so his being the most likely D to also win OH is just driving the stake in further, not really needed. But a GOP candidate who loses OH is in deep doo doo with fewer likely paths.
And yeah, his voice is low with a growl to it! Not whiny and petulant nor clearly coached to smarmy perfection. A big ding that.
The reality though is that we do not yet know how strong or weak most of these potential nominees are. The likely field is big and most are not yet too widely, let alone well, known by many of even many who think of themselves as political junkies. By the time the primaries begin it will be quite different. Maybe they will all be weak. But more likely it will be winnowing down to several who are strong. If not by those initial races then very soon after.
If Brown runs, I think he will be among those several. Others who start off with more national name recognition will be there too but may suffer from solid performance that is nevertheless below expectations. And maybe one or two others who comport themselves well. (I expect Harris will be in that group.) I personally also doubt that group of several moving on as strong candidates will include Beto, I don’t think he’ll connect so well in Iowa and New Hampshire let alone beyond, but of course I have been wrong before.
1 ) Only 6 states have more electoral votes than Ohio. It is a must win on either side and I suspect more advertisements and funds will be spent here than most states. I disagree if you think Ohio isn’t very important. Both sides need it. Next, to Florida and Pennsylvania its the 3rd most important battleground state, even if it goes Republican more often than not ( Obama won Ohio )
2 ) Many X wife of girlfriends change their stories. If Sherrod Brown rises in the ranks, he’ll have to answer to this one, which could include lies from the other side. We really don’t know these politicians. Remember, Senator Al was such a great guy until… Bottom line, Brown starts out with some smoke on this issue.
3 ) Brown’s a shorter guy with an odd voice. He’s not a gifted orator or the type that draws big crowds. California’s Jerry Brown, if he wasn’t so old is a much better candidate.
4 ) Brown has never dipped his toes into the presidential primaries before. If he has he was a quick out. He’s on the radar today because Democrats are looking for their own great hope. That’s okay for now, but if we are talking June 2019 and the field looks the same, there are major problems.
5 ) Senators seldom win the Presidency. Usually, a Governor or a Vice President is a better bet.
6 ) I agree with you on Beto. He’s got long range potential, but he’s too raw and green for now.
7 ) If I had to handicap this race, I’d think Bernie, who might have won if not for the DNC, or Biden who should have run in 2016 are the most battle tested of the lot. Biden to me is what the Democrats used to stand for. He’s not a socialists and is the most pragmatic of the bunch in terms of working with Republicans. I know, he’s old.
8 ) Kamala Harris won’t play well in the mid western states.
First going with the false hypothetical that Ohio is a “must-win” for a Democratic candidate, just which Democrat exactly do you see as more likely to get it to shift the 8+% from Trump’s previous margin there if not Brown? Sanders? No.
So yes, Obama won Ohio. But he did not need it. He could have lost Ohio, and Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and throw in New Hampshire too, and still won.
While Brown is the best hope the Ds have for winning Ohio, and really does put it into play, there are many paths for a Democratic win that do not include taking Ohio. Take PA, WI, and MI, and that’s the game. Take Florida and you can lose WI and MI both.
OTOH start with Trump’s 2016 map and flip Ohio into the D column? Hard to imagine Trump losing OH while winning PA and that means Trump loses even with all the rest of his map intact. The Democrat does not need to win OH so much as Trump really cannot lose it.
Sanders was the “change” vote Democrat for 2016. Now he’s old news like newspaper for recycling old news. Still, I’ll give him his props. The next set of serious strong contenders will all, to various degrees, embrace many of the progressive issues and positions that he campaigned on. Few of the next set will campaign as centrist as Obama was. Biden pretty much owns that lane. But Sanders will underperform in the initial races, even NH, and fade into insignificance fast.
I’m surprised to see an acknowledgement that the obnoxious “Bernie bros” are mostly foreign agents. Frankly, I don’t see why anyone should pay any attention at all to what they say.
The best path for the Democrats to pursue is all of them. Maybe the path that you expect won’t come through, but that doesn’t mean some other one won’t. Obama understood this, and built his 50-state strategy. Clinton, with her “blue wall”, didn’t.
I could see many foreign rival nations supporting Bernie as he’s very soft on foreign policy-related issues and the military.
If it were up to me, foreign money past a certain dollar amount be illegal in our elections. The Quid Pro Quo and buying out of our politicians has to end, and that goes for every single political party.
Warren a bit too abrasive, and progressive. I think Trump would destroy her in a debate and on twitter.
Beto lost his last election. He has long-term potential. 2020 is too soon for him, he needs more meat on his resume.
Brown isn’t very charismatic
Harris is too anti-gun, and won’t play well in the key Midwestern states.
Where are the successful governor front runners?
I voted none of the above too and think Mitch Landrieu is the best choice. He’s charismatic can do type of guy. He’s the ideal age to run for President. He would appeal to the African American base. Yes, Mitch is a long shot. This has to be the weakest field of Democrats I ever saw.