[donning pedant cap]
I was with you completely until you wrote ‘block.’ It’s bloc, Gosh-darn-it. 
Texas is going to go blue, there are quite a few demographic reasons of why this is going to happen. When this does, it may be closer in the future than most think. It has conservative pundit George Will realizing it. It had him proclaiming when it does, it will be all over for the GOP. I doubt it is as bleak for his GOP as he thinks, they will reinvent themselves, but I think his reasons for sounding the fire alarm are very real.
Do the electoral math. There are 18 states and the DoC that have voted Democrat in at least 6 consecutive elections. That almost puts them over the top with the electoral vote, TX would send it well on its way with room to spare.
TX is also the fastest growing state in the nation due to people moving here and these people are moving mostly into urban areas. Texas is 84.7% urban, 4 of 11 of the nation’s largest cities, all being heavily Democratic and going in their favor. TX also has the second largest Latino population which also heavily goes the Democratic way.
The big problem for TX politics and Democrats, is that it always has had one of the worse voter turnouts in the nation, even more so for getting the Latinos to turn out to vote. The Texas Latinos are what one writer says are the worst-performing political demographic anywhere in the nation.
Republicans have had such double digit leads in the past few decades, apathy has set in for the rest. Latino’s hold the key to TX going Democratic; they just don’t bother voting. But thanks to several groups, that is starting to change. It’s also why Beto damned near pulled it off this last round against incumbent, Cruz. This trend is projected to continue for decades.
Concerning Beto wearing a dress in his punk band. Cruz already played that card, it didn’t have the results he expected to have on homophobic voters, and this is in TX. Instead,others started showing a lot of Cruz’ old photos of his, one with him wearing white makeup playing a role of Adam in a play looking pretty damn scary. Beto came out looking like a rock star comparing his photos to Cruz in their youth. Besides, we’ve seen Cruz attempting to play basketball.
Dealing with Ohio and Sherrod Brown, the blue-collar workers in that state are already pissed at Trump since the GM lay-offs. They want somebody to blame, and are remembering Trump’s promises. So it’s already looking like it is starting to lean blue, Brown running for president would cinch Ohio, I would think.
Maybe a ticket with Brown and O’Rourke on it shows the most promise for now if they decide to run.
Personally, I think that we should, every election, pick whichever one of the crop of potential candidates seems the best on the issues which are most important. And when the candidate who’s the best happens to be a woman or a black person or a non-Christian or whatever other underrepresented group, that’s when it’s time to test whether a member of that group can win. Is Klobuchar or Harris or Duckworth or whoever a stronger candidate than Brown or Hickenlooper or O’Rourke or whoever? I don’t know yet; there’s still a lot of research to be done. But if she is, then run her.
I think “best on the issues which are most important” and “stronger candidate” might not align.
Best on the issues is a small part of it, IMHO. Being a candidate, being the president, is also about being able to sell the public at large on that take of the issues, to get them to follow, to convince them that they had already felt and thought that way but just hadn’t realized it before.
Being “best on the issues” without that skill in evidence can get someone who may, in your and my opinion anyway, be right but completely ineffective and unable to win.
Acceptable on the issues is the first cut, sure, with several who will fit that, be maybe even tied for “best”. Then demonstrating that sales ability. Especially but not only the ability to sell the ideas to those whose votes are likely to deliver the election. And after that maybe giving reason to believe that they know how to manage a team of people with diverse ideas.
I like a lot of the candidates on the list. I know some think Klobuchar isn;t a great speaker, isn’t inspirational; I did hear her speak once and she was great. It wasn’t a purely political speech, but she came across as very bright and well informed, and she has a wicked sense of humor. Gillibrand (my senator) is also quite smart and a skilled politician; I know she’s got some flaws too but I could support her easily. Cory Booker has a lot to recommend him and so does Sherrod Brown (though I’d really like to hang onto that Ohio Senate seat).
Anyway, I could vote for and work for any of these, based only on what I know now, and a few others besides. But not ready to single out a preliminary pick yet, sorry.
Interestingly, I do have three candidates I have reservations about:
–In another thread I said I had some mild doubts about Elizabeth Warren. I still have them–too “academic,” too associated with Massachusetts, too dry a speaking style–but I have another more serious issue now as well. I think she handled the whole “I do TOO have Native American ancestry! See???” thing quite badly. I don’t now how the Dems will decide to deal with Trump this time around, but I think it’s essential that the candidate not allow Trump to get under their skin. To me, the biggest takeaway from the DNA thing is that Warren is allowing Trump to mess with her head, and I think that’s a sure route to failure.
–I’m sure there’s a lot to like about Beto O’Rourke–hey, coming within three points of Cruz ain’t bad!–and I much appreciate his generally upbeat, unifying message. That said, I worry about how he’s being perceived…there’s a quality of Only Beto Can Save Us which makes me a little uneasy, and makes me think that people are projecting onto him what they want to see. Not entirely his fault, but I wonder how deep his support is and whether it’s based on reality, and what happens when he’s more closely scrutinized.
–My friends who supported Bernie Sanders always said, “The more you see of him, the better you like him.” For me it was the opposite. I don’t think he acquitted himself well during the campaign or during the weeks leading up to the convention, and nothing he’s said since then indicates that anything has changed.
But I’d vote for any of the three of them in a heartbeat if they wind up the nominee!
To be clear, by “best on the issues”, I meant “best at getting policies enacted on the right side of the issues”. So it includes both being on the right side, and being effective (and effectiveness, of course, includes electability as one component).
I find the high popularity of Beto O’Rourke to be dismaying and even frightening. I want to see a youngish candidate but would choose either Biden or Sanders in a flash if the alternative were Beto.
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He is not a real liberal. He joined with the GOP to deregulate Wall Street. He refuses to support “Medicare for All.” Do young progressives want to rally around a progressive, or an arbitrary young person? I personally like centrism, but what about the Democratic base? It seems likely Beto will end up as a flip-flopper to appeal to them.
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IMHO he lacks the gravitas to be President.
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He lacks the experience to be President. I’ve been claiming that Senator is bare qualification for the job , and would prefer a Governor. Beto isn’t even a Senator. Kamala Harris used to be the Attorney General of the largest state. Beto was on the city council of America’s 22nd largest city.
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I’ve been stressing the importance of Charisma, but have been unable to define the term precisely. Charisma is NOT having cute photos as a teenager. Charisma is NOT flip-flopping. And what charisma is especially NOT, in the context of a Presidential run, is quirky youthful enthusiasm.
Please. Let’s stop this Beto Bandwagon before it goes too far.
How about waiting to see how he actually does on the campaign trail (if he even runs) before telling us to stop talking about him.
The people watching, applauding, and voting during the primary/caucus season are NOT the people who will decide the election in November 2020.
Wise men may be needed to save the Democratic Party from itself, but wisdom is in short supply.
Beto is the latest fad guy but the strange thing is he lost his recent race which is not true of most fad people.
Also I thought the Dems were supposed to be for new ideas , not sure how a 76 year old guy (Biden) who was in Congress for 36 years matches up with that.
She has no experience- and we now know how poorly that works. Trump is a example of why NOT to put in a Michelle or another celebrity… However, a Biden/Michelle ticket might work.
The hate machine can work up in a few months, see Swiftboating.
He’s not too old.
Please stop saying Kamala Harris! She is radically anti-gun, and will alienate the moderate gun owners. She is also a San Francisco politician, and that plays poorly on the National Stage.
And really she has done nothing.
I picked Biden, but who cares? At this point it’s pretty clear the Howling Yam is running in 2020, since he’s been campaigning since his first day in office. If the nominee is Biden, Brown, Warren, Rikki Lake, Jerry Springer or even Casey Anthony, they’ll get my vote over the Orange One regardless.
A large part of Michelle Obama’s popularity is for the same reason as Hillary Clinton’s: A significant segment of the population just takes it for granted that her husband would be the real power, and so it’s like electing him again. Hence all of the references to “The Clintons” as a singular entity.
Another large part of her popularity is the fact that she’s definitely not running. It’s a lot easier to hypothetically support someone when that support doesn’t actually matter in any way.
At this time it is hard to find anyone reputable who has anything seriously negative to say about Klobuchar. To me that’s an undeniably promising (potential) starting point for someone who’s been a Senator for 12 years.
Well, Avenatti just dropped out “in order to spend more time with his family”. Glad to see nobody here is silly enough to have to change their pick on that account.
So Avenatti and Patrick have announced their lack of intention … any bets for next in the campaign dead pool?
The problem I foresee is that Republicans have figured out that they don’t need actual dirt, they can just lie. Straight up, easily disproven lies repeated often enough become truth to those who want it to be true. We have seen this, it’s been weaponized in the political arena and it works. Trump has proven that being clean doesn’t help and being dirty doesn’t hurt.