Poll/Game: Predict the order the Demo candidates will drop out

In My Humble Opinion
1

…and then there were seven.

They can’t all make to the end, can they?

Predict the order the Dems will drop out.

Here’s mine:

  1. Kucinich
  2. Lieberman
  3. Sharpton (of course, he could stay till the convention just for spite)
  4. Clark
  5. Edwards
  6. Dean (will concede shortly before the convention)
  7. Kerry will win the nomination, but lose to Bush

Disclaimer: I don’t know diddly about politics. This is just a game. No offense is meant to anybody who’s into politics.

2

Of course, I should be more interested in politics, but I’m not.

3

I think Kucinich and Sharpton will stay in until the convention. They know they have no chance of winning, and they are just hoping to get some delegates and have some say in the platform or get to make a prime time speech.

I think this is going to be an interesting year, and I think we may end up with a convention without a candidate with enough delegates to win on the first ballot. That hasn’t happened since the 60s I believe.

So I see Kerry, Edwards, and Dean all going to the convention. I think Lieberman will drop out very soon and Clark will drop out in about a month when the money dries up.

Then again if you had asked me two weeks ago I would have said Dean would have sewn it up by mid February, and we can see that didn’t happen. A week is a lifetime in politics, so who knows?

4
  1. Lieberman
  2. Kucinich
  3. Clark
  4. Edwards
  5. Dean
  6. Sharpton

People just want sharpton and kucinich to drop out but I don’t think they will anytime soon. Lieberman seems to me more of the gephardt type - if he doesn’t see the numbers he’ll get out.

5

I don’t think Kucinich, Lieberman or Sharpton are going to drop out - they’re there for specific reasons of attracting voters to the Democratic party (Kucinich the far left, Lieberman the centrists, and Sharpton the African-Americans/minorities).

Of the remaining 4, they’ll fold as follows:

  1. Clark
  2. Edwards
  3. Dean
  4. Kerry gets nomination
6

I like Mike Ventrella’s analysis.

Kucinich and Sharpton are in the race not because they think they can win but to ensure that their priority issues continue getting aired and aren’t lost in the shuffle. Thus, it is in their interest to stick with it until the bitter end. If either of them is more likely to drop out, I think it’s Kucinich. Sharpton just likes the spotlight.

Lieberman also has an agenda to push, but he’s a more practical-minded and experienced politician. While he was no doubt stung by Gore’s endorsement of Dean before the primary and caucus season launched (and without a warning), he’s still a party man. And Clark is just plain going to run out of money.

It’ll be Dean, Edwards, and Kerry going to the convention with fists full of delegates: maybe not enough to require multiple ballots, but certainly enough to trigger logrolling and negotiations. Each of them has different strengths, and will be able to leverage regional wins to maintain momentum over the long term. (The Dean Machine is quite formidable here in Washington State, for example; that caucus happens next week.)

So, in order:

  1. Lieberman (he’ll get stomped in the South)
  2. Clark (a series of no-better-than-second-place finishes won’t be enough)
  3. Kucinich is the wild card; he could be out tomorrow, or never

Leaving Kerry, Edwards, and Dean sitting pretty at the convention with Sharpton and maybe Kucinich shouting wisecracks from the sidelines.