10 little, 9 little 8 little candidates

Now that Bob Graham has dropped his presidential bid, which of the remaining nine Dem candidates do you think will be the next to go?

Dean and Clark are in it until the bitter end and I think one of the two of them will end up with the nomination. Sharpton, Kucinik and Braun will also be in it for the long haul because for one they’re vanity candidates and two if they should actually win some delegates they will try to parley that into some floor time at the convention. Lieberman will get whupped in a couple of primaries and will drop out in the midst of the season, but will hang in long enough to satisfy himself that he can be a credible candidate in '08 if he wants to be (he won’t be to anyone else, though).

That leaves Gephardt, Kerry and Edwards as my picks for who will be the next to go. Of the three, I think Edwards is going to be the first to catch a clue and drop out, followed by Gephardt then Kerry. Kerry may hang in through South Carolina but I don’t think he’ll fare well in New Hampshire or Iowa, and a disappointing finish in SC will knock him out. A similar scenario will knock out Kerry (who will do well in NH but poorly in Iowa) and Gephardt (who will tank in NH but do well in Iowa) but I think Edwards will call it quits first.

Opinions?

One determining factor may be money - those candidates who haven’t raised very much cash might be the first to go. I don’t know the numbers, but I think the three “vanity” candidates you mention sit on the bottom tier of fundraising thus far.

My guess for the next to leave is Moseley-Braun.

Kerry has tons of cash, thanks to his wife (right? He’s the one married to the Heinz heir?). Edwards has a lot too, thanks to winning settlements against Big Tobacco.

But Moseley-Braun, Sharpton, and Kucinich are “got nothin’ to lose” candidates, AFAICT. They’ll stay in as long as they can afford to, literally. I think.

Moseley_Braun
Kucinich
Sharpton
(inverse order)

I don’t think the “vanity” candidates are getting all that much money - they may last into the primary season, but I don’t think they’ll get all that far into it. I agree about Lieberman, but not the others: I think Gephardt, Kerry and Edwards will at least try to be there until the end, though I don’t see any of them winning. Kerry is still probably #3 overall.