If I’m running the numbers correctly, all this assumes that Nevada went for Trump. I don’t keep up with Nevada politics, but the assumption seems to be that Nevada has had a pretty major swing to the right, possibly even more likely to go for Trump than Arizona, Georgia, or even North Carolina. What’s going on there?
The analyses based on prioritizing PA+MI+WI+NE2 (e.g. Simon Rosenberg’s main thrust) are actually agnostic about what may happen in NC+GA+AZ+NV. It’s just that PA+MI+WI+NE2 is a bare minimum baseline on which all other electoral victory outcomes are built.
From there, you have to decide, bluntly, whether or not (a) to accept “the polls” as presented and (b) whether or not to treat poll results as a close proxy for November votes. Nevada’s apparent polling numbers right now – and whether they’ll ultimately matter – are sometimes a topic in Simon Rosenberg’s reader comments.
ArcticStones | Jun 8
One of the most reliable voices in Nevada is Jon Ralston."FOX has new poll showing Trump up 5 in NV in post-verdict survey. It’s RVs, shows Biden has small lead among Hispanics, RFK Jr. wouldn’t change much. (Done by D and R firms.)
“Still early, but Biden has not led in a public NV poll for more than 6 months.”
– Jon Ralston, Editor, Nevada Independent, 6 June
…
ArcticStones | Jun 8
Unions are very strong in Nevada. I expect them to launch extremely effective GOTV operations on behalf of Biden-Harris and Team Blue!Impossible Santa Wife | Jun 8
Go into the bathroom, close the door, light a candle, look into the mirror, and chant “Harry Reid” three times! I do think the Reid Machine will come through for us, as it always has in the past. And I think Jacky Rosen is not to be underestimated, either. She’s hitting the ground running with the funding she’s already accumulated.It also helps us that the NV-GOP and the Clark County GOP chairs are both under indictment as false electors, and that the DNC and DSCC have a LOT more cash to splash on candidates than the RNC and RNSC. (Hey, a guy’s gotta pay his lawyers!)
Brian Gray | June 9
[The polls showing Biden behind in NV are registered-voter polls] though it seems like Biden does much better in [a likely-voter] model.
A post was split to a new topic: Why are people acting like a Biden win in November will defeat fascism, and not AT BEST, delay it?
I have no way of knowing which way Nevada will go but the Governor of Nevada is a Republican. It looks like he’s not a Trumper but he did write this OpEd in the NYT last week -
Why Trump Resonates With Nevada Voters (free gift link)
Maybe he’s right, maybe not. The point still stands the clearest, easiest path to 270 EVs for Biden is through Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and as was pointed out NE-2.
AZ, GA, NC and now it appears NV are heavier lifts. That doesn’t mean the Biden campaign shouldn’t try for them but the other 3 states and the congressional district are crucial and likely simpler ways to victory.
Exactly 270? One or two faithless electors is not a rarity, and it looks to me that, in recent decades, they are mostly Democrats:
Polling is not broken, but state level polls are not as accurate as national polls. So we do not know exactly what states are at the tipping point.
I’m not going to worry about faithless electors at this point. 270 is the number needed to win. Odds are the winner will get something over that number but none of it matters until they get across the finish line.
Polls are messed up right now because they are mostly about registered rather than likely voters and the “we want a horse race because it boosts ratings” news media are only focused on those type of polls.
As to tipping points, look at the Five Thirty Eight website and they show PA is the tipping point at the moment - click here.
ETA - your own link about faithless electors mentions that several states have laws in place to void the votes of faithless electors and replace them. That makes me less concerned about this given the fact there were 0 faithless electors in 2020, which seems the most likely recent one to have that be meaningful. I am confident if either of the candidates in 2024 lands at exactly 270 they will be declared the winner.
Some reasons for not using a likely voter screen, this early, are in here:
(my emphasis)
Evaluating whether or not polling is “broken” relies on wrangling over definitions and semantics. However, there is no doubt that polling is sometimes done in a dodgy manner for convenience in drafting a narrative (examples upthread of oversampling certain groups). There is also no doubt that legitimate poll results can be spun to support differing narratives. Below is an example.
From Real Clear Polling June 19, 2024 (chart at link will change day to day, so I’ve captured and posted an image):
Now, the same data but with the three polls with all or some responses collected before Trump’s conviction excluded in calculating the RCP Average2 figures:
Real Clear Polling always takes care to include at least one big-Trump-lead poll in their average – recently it’s often Rasmussen, a poll they had been intentionally excluding until March 2024 due to naked bias. Even with placing their thumbs on the scale, RCP has a hard time keeping Trump’s apparent lead in their polling average above 1 percent.
I don’t know why they sometimes do and do not include Rasmussen. Their management is right of center, but I do not see that as evidence of naked balance in polling aggregation. Just because the ump lives in New York, and sometimes makes hard calls in favor of the Yanks, doesn’t prove Yankee bias.
The reason I’ve linked to them more than 538 is that their data series made four years ago and 2023/2024 Trump-Biden polling comparison practical. I do not think they are any more pro-GOP than they were four years ago. And 538’s averages are similar.
If the electoral college is no longer favorable to the GOP, and if the polls no longer underestimate Trump’s support, the race is effectively tied. And there’s a good case to be made that Trump’s electoral college advantage has faded.
Like clockwork:
There is absolutely no reason to include Rasmussen at this point, unless your goal is to make it look like Trump is ahead (rather than tied or very slightly behind nationally, which is likely the case). Their polls are literally sponsored by right-wing marketers.
Their latest “Presidential Poll” leads with 10 “questions” about immigration (with various degrees of well-poisoning) before asking about the presidential race. It is not a poll.
One such “question”: “Should Congress increase the number of foreign workers taking higher-skill U.S. jobs or does the country already have enough talented people to train and recruit for most of those jobs?”
Could you have a more blatantly anti-immigrant phrasing of that question?
11% other/undecided? Is that normal?
Trump to win by 9%.
Hmm, see also the top line here.
Rasmussen and RCP are essentially Trump campaign outlets.
One dodgy thing RealClear Polling does is combine results from (a) strict Trump vs Biden polls with (b) 5-way polls that also include Kennedy, West, and Stein.
That said, it’s still 4-plus months out. Many people are kind of committed to “not committing” this early on. A few haven’t even yet countenanced the choice that they know - deep down - that they’re virtually certain to make in November.
Wikipedia ranked them 24th out of 28. For predicting results.
Well, at least they are being quite upfront with their obvious bias. What’s next? “poll sponsored by the We All Hate Biden MAGA committee”?
I think at least some polling is affected by a need to dramatize the situation. Websites need clicks and talking heads need followers. The fund-raisers will do better if they can say “your dollars could make the difference!”
A summary of polling.