Sorry my apologies, I need to tone down my snark-o-meter. I got the misimpression that your were supporting the view rather than just reporting it. My bad.
They are mad at the company as well, but that goes into a whole other thing of how huge corporations own the politicians.
Trump is offering an easy answer, to blame the people that have no power. It’s classic divide and conquer, and its working as evidenced by the polling.
And that’s incredibly sad because the Republicans have caused this issue, and Trump doesn’t give a shit about anyone but himself. Too many people are willing to burn the whole world to the ground out of hatred for other poor people. The migrants are not the enemy of working people, and the bosses of your companies that mistreat you are all hoping those they mistreat will vote for Trump too. It’s running into a wood chipper because you think the woodchipper will hurt those you don’t like, except we’re all going to go into the wood chipper too.
I realize you are not the one advocating for voting this way, just commenting on how incredibly sad this is.
Pardon me for being a little late to the dance, but my theory is, in the polls where Trump leads Biden, if “neither” is a choice, is that being included? i.e. if the actual result is, say, Trump 25%, Biden 24%, Neither 51%, does this still count as “Trump leads Biden”?
Wikipedia runs analyses of polls and results after election. You can find the polls lower down and the polling outfits are the familiar ones.
Example of small state: Nebraska
bigger state
Ipsos/Reuters predicted 52% Biden 48% Trump. It went 50.6/47.8
I like the Ipsos/Reuters poll
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bidens-challenge-lies-reaching-voters-who-have-tuned-out-reutersipsos-poll-2023-12-13/
Just wow:
Never felt so unwelcome in my adopted country until then. And I never thought of it that way, either. I always thought of myself as inherently American. But then i realized half the country will always think of me as an immigrant and a foreigner and poison to boot.
It was a rough year and I really feel like my faith got broken.
I am terrified of a Trump presidency again. This time I don’t think they will make the ham-fisted mistakes they did last time. And people simply don’t have any patience. Biden will/is fixing things. Focusing on things that are important, like infrastructure. But these things take time and they are not sexy.
And I have heard lots of people proclaim they will not vote for Biden because he won’t support the Palestinians. Do you think Trump is going to do anything for the Palestinians either?
I previously wrote, or implied, that once the pollsters switch to likely voters screens, we’ll see that Trump was ahead all through 2023. Good news in that when the A-rated New York Times poll this week put in a likely voter screen (which pollsters do as you get closer to the election), Trump fizzled:
Note to turnout matters believing Democrats: We want low turnout.
EDIT: Trump is still probably ahead due to shy Trumpers and the GOP electoral college advantage, but neither of those is a certainty.
Through the year, Democrats have been winning special elections by an average of 11 points over what the typical partisanship index for that district/state would indicate:
I have a theory on why this is, and it also explains why Biden seems to be underperforming among young people in recent polls:
There’s a segment of very tech savvy, very internet savvy young voters who are overwhelmingly progressive but are skilled enough (and cynical enough) to deliberately avoid polling. Let’s call them Swifties. The Swifties vote at a pretty high rate for young people, and like Taylor Swift, they overwhelmingly vote Democratic. But polling is almost entirely unable to reach them. So polling has to judge young people by the non-Swifties – the young people who answer polling at about the same rate as the rest of the population. These young people are less tech savvy, and less progressive, then the average young person. And so these are swaying the polling by a small but significant enough margin to make polling lean Republican these days, by perhaps as much as 11 point or so.
We’ll see if this is borne out on election day next year, and I don’t have any evidence for it beyond the continual Democratic overperformance in special elections. But I think it fits the facts, at least.
Not exactly. We want high D turnout and low R turnout. Those Other people want the opposite.
“Turnout” is really a misnomer. There are two separate and disconnected turnouts: Ours and Theirs. Yes, there is a correlation between them, but that correlation is rather variable from election to election.
If the Democrats beat their special election polling at the ballot box, you have evidence. Did they? I can’t find polling, for recent special elections, in quick googling, but maybe I’m missing it.
In absence of that evidence, here’s my problem with your optimistic hypothesis. Trump did better than polls predicted in November 2016. Same in November 2020. Why should the savvy young voters have changed their polling receptivity between 2020 and 2023? Doesn’t make sense to me.
It seems like polling has to be broken. Democrats keep doing well, even as recently as the special election to replace George Santos. Yet we keep hearing about how Biden is behind.
I suspect that it’ll come down to two groups rather than the electorate as a whole. Let’s call them Nikki Haley people and Bernie Sanders people. I think that those are also the hardest groups to poll. Voters in both groups have likely not yet made up their minds on their final vote. On top of that, I think the Sanders voters are also harder to poll. That’s my guess as to why we don’t have a good picture if we’re going by just the polls.
The Long Island polls (while correctly calling the result) did underestimate the margin of victory:
But there only were two reputable organizations polling.
Approximately (varies a bit month to month) eleven polling organizations have been regularly running Biden-Trump polls for the past year, just as they did in 2019 and 2020. This creates an unprecedented volume of early comparative data, and there is no reasonable way to spin said data that is positive for Democrats.
Not a cherry pick, but about what I see every time I look:
March 2, 2020 RealClearPolitics Polling Average:
Trump - 44.4 percent
Biden - 49.8 percent
March 2, 2024 RealClearPolitics Polling Average
Trump - 47.3 percent
Biden - 45.0 percent
So, about an eight point swing towards Trump compared to four years ago. Some days the swing is six points. Some days ten. Might this flip in the next seven months? Sure, but I’ve been waiting to see a flip for the past twelve months or so, and it has not happened. Trump isn’t running ahead of four years ago most of the time. He is running ahead of four years ago all the time.
Swing state data? There’s less of it, but it also is bad for Democrats.
Trump of course has legal jeopardy. So he still is a weak candidate. A weak candidate who is ahead in the horse race,
Public polling is the umpire regarding the state of the race. Umps make mistakes, but having so many polling organizations, with different methodologies, averages them out. And umps make mistakes a whole lot less often than fans.
The answer I repeatedly get to this is that Biden polls poorly because low information voters doubt such a weak candidate will be the nominee. Why that wouldn’t apply to Trump mystifies me.
We don’t get too many MAGAs here in the UK, but an American colleague was visiting the office and I was pretty shocked that someone who is pretty decent at his job, and in my industry most people are postgrads, and still lacks the objectivity and skepticism to see through the talking points.
According to him, America’s economy is the worst in living memory. Inflation is still out of control; “they” are just lying about it. The jobs numbers hide that lots of people are just settling for crappy jobs (a new thing under Biden, I guess)? And, while he conceded that oil production is indeed at a record high, still considers it a fail for Biden because not enough future contracts have been signed.
I only gave minimal pushback because I was hosting and had to keep everything nice like.
Actually the thing I want to rant about though, is the cause of all this, which is not Trump so much as it is the way people consume news media now: a social media bubble and channels / web sites that promise to smack down the other side (the latter is somewhat a “both sides” thing, but I still think most left wing media makes an effort to cover actual issues).
Millions of people, more every day, are untouchable by facts.
Poll mentioned in another thread. Make of it as you will.
Trump has SEVERELY underperformed his polling in every single primary election so far.
Right. And IIRC, Biden has over performed.
I would say “moderately”, but he is definitely underperforming, on average.
There are multiple possible factors in why polls may be struggling at this point in the race:
- They aren’t. The null hypothesis, which many of us want to ignore, is that Trump is in fact winning at this point, and would win if the election were today.
- Anti-MAGA conservatives are not identifying as Republicans in the weighting screens. All polls have to weight their responses for age/sex/race/party/education (new factor) in order to remove any bias based on who responded. It’s possible that these weighting are being distorted by the fact that the “Independent” pool is more conservative than it should be, and the GOP pool is more MAGA than it historically would be. Evidence against this is that the generic “party ID” polling doesn’t seem that out-of-whack (although perhaps a bit down for the GOP).
- Anti-Biden voters are hoping for a different choice, expressing their anger about the Israel/Palestine conflict, etc. but will come home once the voting is real. Evidence for this is that Biden tends to do worse with young voters than normal, and that actual elections have tended to go well for Democrats over the last 1.5 years. Possible mitigation is that young voters are notoriously unreliable, and if they really are down on Biden they might just not show up and thus throw the election to Trump.
From the article @Leaper posted:
That’s what Democrats are dealing with.
I remember the same naysaying in 2012, with the same anecdotal negativity from Democratic voters.