President Joe Biden and the runup to the 2024 election

That poll shows that 97% of 2020 Trump voters are sticking with him – this doesn’t at all comport with the primary results so far, in which 30-50% of Republican primary voters are rejecting Trump (and many/most of those say they won’t vote for him in the general).

General election polling this early still doesn’t mean anything, statistically speaking – no correlation with the eventual result – but considering the primary results, I stand by my earlier hypothesis that there’s something profoundly wrong with polling right now:

It’s just a hypothesis, but we’ll see. I’m not particularly worried by these way-too-early polls.