Whether or not you want him to, or think he should, do you predict he will run for a second term ?
I’m not convinced. The demands, coupled with his age, give me pause.
And I can’t read the tea leaves, because he’s a fairly adept politician who knows that declaring he will not seek reelection is a sure way to tank any prospect of any cooperation with the R’s (yes, yes: I know), and maybe hurt him with the D’s, too.
Biden will seek a second term
Biden will NOT seek a second term
I don’t know
Who are the Grateful Dead and why are they following me ?
At the very least, it’ll depend on how the midterms go. The better they go for the Democrats, the better his chances of running.
IMHO in theory Democrats would be better off if say, some time during the summer of 2023 Biden announced he would not be running. The problem is that Harris is the heir apparent. One of the major benefits of Biden not running would be the vigorous debate between various factions who in the end would all rally around the person who has done the best job in the primary. Unfortunately Harris could suck up all of the oxygen and take that away as a benefit. With neither Biden or Harris, we’d probably get around 10 to 15 candidates which IMHO would be a good thing. With Harris we would probably only get 1 or 2 other candidates (with Bernie possibly being one of them) who everyone would know have no real shot at winning.
I think he will not due to his age. However, if DJT is the nominee then he will run again. He was the only one who could have beaten him in 2020 and he may need to run again to save democracy. If he doesn’t run, I do NOT think Harris gets the nomination. I think someone like Booker is more likely.
I keep going back and forth over this question, and have for the past month or so.
Right now, i feel like he will run again. I wish he could replace Harris though. If he doesn’t run, i don’t think Harris will get away with running in a 1-2 person primary. She’s a very weak candidate, and i think we’ll see a big field like we did in 2020. But i think it’s gonna be Bidden- Harris 2024, for better or for worse.
I’d love to see Sherrod Brown or Mitch Landrieu personally, with Val Demings or Gretchen Whitmer as the running mate. If Corey Booker could run a better campaign, i still like him too.
I don’t want him to but I don’t see how he doesn’t. Everything that pushed him to the nomination in 2020 will push him to the nomination in 2024, plus the added baggage of how bad it would look for an incumbent party not to back a sitting president.
I don’t think it would necessarily be that bad. If he gave a speech to the nation thanking them for the privilege of allowing him to serve as president for the last 4 years, but saying that he wants to step down and take the time to enjoy his golden years, and let someone else take on the pressures of office. I don’t think that anyone would complain aside for the usual haters who will complain no matter what he does.
Now if he does run but loses the nomination then you’re right that would make the Dems look very bad.
Yeah, Biden’s age means he has a built-in face-saving excuse for not running again, and he seems to be basically a team player, the sort of person who would use that excuse and step down if it benefits his party. (I don’t think it will be clear whether it does benefit his party until mid-2023 or so, after the midterm results and post-midterm trends become clear; but I’d expect him to decide fairly soon after that. There is a plausible future where Biden is significantly more popular a year from now than he is today – basically, a Reagan-type trajectory with the parties reversed – but also, of course, an equally plausible one where his presence on the ticket is a liability.)
I’m thinking of a similar trend to Obama. Both Biden and Obama spent much of the first couple of years of their presidency trying to clean up (and getting blamed for) the messes left by their predecessors. If the Pandemic eventually gets under control and the Ukraine situation gets resolved one way or another things could be not so bad by Nov 2024.
I mentioned this in another thread, but Reagan, Clinton and Obama all had painful first midterm elections that were seen as a rebuke of their Administrations, and all three went on to comfortably win reelection. Barring health reasons, I doubt that Biden is going to decline to run for reelection.