NB: I would bet against Biden voluntarily declining to run for a second term, personally, but if he did I would vigorously literally anybody or any life form running against Donald Trump in his place on the Democratic ticket. I will also support Biden if he chooses to be nominated for a second term.
But say you’re Joe Biden. You look at the polls and you realize that the GOP has invested a lot of their campaign, their capital, their brand on “Biden’s too old, too senile, too risky to serve a second term.” You’re 81 years old, you’re tired of campaigning, you’d love to spend all of 2024 working on policy issues, and you don’t want to be saddled with the blame for electing Trump. You’ve decided not to run again.
Do you try to choose who your successor will be? Do you talk to top Democratic contenders, and tell them they must agree on a consensus ticket before you announce your intention to step down? Do you tell these six or nine potential candidates that if they don’t agree to support the eventual Democratic ticket, you will opt to run again yourself? Or do you let the Party choose a candidate freely with no input from you?
And when do you decide? Today, and give the candidates enough time to put their campaigns together, debate with each other, defend their records, etc? Or just before the Democratic convention?
Is it better for the Democratic candidate to have as much time as possible to allow the public to know him or her? Or is September and October sufficient time? Which scenario has the greatest chance of fracturing the party? Which one will unite the party?
"Yet Obama, in particular, took a gut punch. According to the poll, just 42 percent give the president high marks for possessing strong leadership qualities. That’s a 12-point drop from May (in the days following Osama bin Laden’s death).
In addition, his high marks for being a good commander in chief have plunged 10 points (from 51 percent in May to his current 41 percent rating); his high marks for having the ability to handle a crisis have dropped 14 points (from 53 percent to 39 percent); and his high marks for achieving his goals have declined another 14 points (from 41 percent to 27 percent)."
Biden’s going to be the nominee, and I think he still has a very good chance of winning. It’s not like Trump is gaining supporters.
But you guys are fighting the hypothetical here. I don’t think Biden should step down and I don’t think he will. Given my hypothetical, though–that HE decides to do so, for a variety of reasons that I respect–when and how should he do it?
It’s way, way too late. I think the filing deadline for many states has already passed. There’s no smooth transition, or anything like that, at this point. It would be chaos and a scramble and a gift for Republicans as a dozen Democrats tear each other to pieces.
If Biden died on August 1st, the Democrats wouldn’t be able to run a candidate in 2024? If Gavin Newsom suddenly decides to oppose Biden at the convention, he’s not eligible to run if he wins the Dem nomination? What’s the difference why Biden’s not on the ballot?
Of course they’d figure something out eventually – but it would be chaos until then, and it’s hard to imagine this wouldn’t damage the eventual candidate and help the Republicans. If, say, Whitmer, Harris, and Newsome all announced, they’d all have strong supporters, and they’d go negative, and the supporters of the losers might be pretty pissed that the winner probably was helped along by party bigwigs (which would also be inevitable to try and shorten the contest).
All my opinion, of course, but I can’t imagine how this could possibly go smoothly.
That’s the one thing i can promise you. But the smears against Biden are baked in. Smears against Newsom, Abrams, Whitmer, Beshear et al not so much. The GOP will need to shift from “old, decrepit, senile” on a dime to "too young, inexperienced, untested. " i have great confidence in their ability to do an instant 180 but i don’t know how effective it will be.
It would be total chaos, as the party has to reset the rules on the fly – some states would probably be decided by the party itself at the convention, or maybe at a makeshift election contest, or some other idea.
I get what you’re saying about wanting someone younger or embracing a more ideological perspective, but elections are about winning. And giving up the advantages of incumbency would be a BIG strategic mistake for the Dems, no matter what fresh face they provide.
The most he can do is endorse a candidate, try to convince his largest fundraisers, and try to convince potential candidates that would challenge his endorsed candidate. He could start doing this in private, before his announcement, but it would leak immediately.
And it wouldn’t work. You can’t tell a bunch of candidates with giant egos not to run. He has no leverage, nothing to offer. The fact that he would be stepping away from the top job voluntarily would make him the lamest of ducks. And no candidate would agree without doing their own polling, speaking with their fundraisers, and discussing with staff.
He wouldn’t even be able to convince his top fundraisers. I’m sure they all have their own second choices. Some are probably supporting him because they’re backing the winner of the nomination. That wouldn’t be the car with his endorsed candidate.
The best time was about a year ago. Six months ago at the latest.
The second-best time would be right now, prior to any primaries happening. It would be a shit-show, but at least one with a predictable and well-established process.
The third-best time is after the convention due to health reasons (ideally, from a political perspective, death). At that point point the party rules allow the DNC itself to name the candidate. Most likely they would choose the nominated VP candidate (Harris).
Anything in between, like winning a few primaries and then withdrawing, will lead to a disaster of a convention where pledged delegates end up having to vote for someone else. That can only end in bad blood and a loss in November. I actually think any of these choices, other than perhaps withdrawing right now, like leads to a loss.
Who said this would have to take place overnight? It would be tricky but the meeting could be virtual, Biden would not have to get involved at the preliminary stages, and he would need to assure them at the later stages that they would need to agree on strongly endorsing the agreed upon candidate or else he pulls the plug and runs for re election himself. It would be totally unprecedented but so is everything about the 2024 race.
Definitely. Here’s what I think the best scenario would be. Biden resigns immediately, not just declines to run. Perhaps he has an apparent serious health issue that normally could result in the 25th being invoked and for the good of the nation, resigns instead. So Harris succeeds him, giving her the incumbency advantage. For best effect in the upcoming election, she’d need to immediately face some crisis, ideally one obviously precipitated by the republicans, and deal with it handily.
Anything that happens before he announced would have to be very quick because it would immediately leak and reset the entire negotiation. If he approached a bunch of potential candidates privately, one or more of them would see their chance, leak the story, and start their campaign. It’s a big tent party. They’re not all friends.
Anything that happens after it leaks or after he announces would play out in the media real-time. It would be a circus and would drown out all of the other news – House woes, Israel/Hamas, Trump’s legal troubles, any Biden successes. It’s an unforced error that stretches out for months.
Your suggestion is that Biden would have leverage. He would have no leverage (except his endorsement). Once it gets out that he isn’t going to run it’s too late for him to change his mind. The damage would be done. If four candidates are arguing about being his successor and he says “Pick Harris or I’ll run again.” how does that convince anyone except Harris? “Fine run again and I’ll beat you in the nomination now that everyone knows you were going to drop out.”
The GOP has been working on her for a long time, too. My scenario catches them completely off-guard, scrambling to invent shit to smear Candidate Whoever.
Better for Kamala (who was my first pick in 2020) would be to wait a cycle or two, maybe serve as Whoever’s AG or Secretary of State, and rebuild her currently degraded image.