Or if you want to push the envelope a bit further, Biden accepts her resignation and announces the agreed-upon Candidate Whoever to be nominated as her replacement, then resigns himself. Meanwhile Kamala runs for Feinstein’s Senate seat from California, as Candidate Whoever picks his own nominee for VP, and they run as incumbents without any of Biden’s or Harris’s baggage.
Some weirdo magic scenario like this might work, but ISTM it would just guarantee damage to Biden, in the very high likelihood that not all would agree on supporting one candidate, since he’d be essentially agreeing with the prospect that he’s too old to run again.
There are probably weird, convoluted, nigh-magical scenarios in which a better candidate than Biden could emerge. But I think the likelihood is so, so incredibly low that we might as well wish for magical ponies.
I think everyone concedes the point, including him. The sticking point is that as the incumbent, the nomination is his for the asking, and everyone agrees that’s a pretty good way to run the system. But if he says “Today, I feel more tired than I did yesterday, and I deserve to enjoy my retirement,” no one would blame him, except the Republicans who are going to waste their energy blaming him for everything anyway.
And I’d enjoy the Dems making an issue out of the advanced age of Trump. “He’s old, he’s fat, he’s a moron, he’s a fascist–who ya gonna vote for now?”
And that scenario would create the massive scramble that inevitably would damage the eventual nominee, ala 2016 (obviously there were many things that damaged Hillary, but the contest with Bernie was one of them).
No candidate is perfect. Biden’s got flaws, most prominently his age. Every other candidate would have other flaws, especially if there’s a clusterfuck scramble of a primary.
No primary at all. The DNC, under Biden’s firm direction, selects his choice for nominee in mid-August. Easy-peasy, done deal.
Who gonna vote for in that scenario? Trump? Good luck with that.
And in that scenario, I suspect some small but real percentage of Democrats would be really, really pissed that it was smoky rooms rather than Democratic voters who chose the candidate.
OK, but are they gonna vote for Trump? Of course not.
Are they going to stay home in a fit of pique so that Trump gets elected?
Of course not.
How are you going to abolish the primaries? They’re all set according to state law, and as I mentioned the filing deadline for all but a few has not passed. And the primaries decide who will be at the convention.
Yes, some of them will. It sucks, and those people suck, but that’s the way it is. There are some small but real number of shitty/flawed people that nonetheless I expect will vote for Biden rather than Trump, but may not vote for a different candidate, because of the inevitably chaotic process that would result.
I question your utterly unfounded optimism. We lost in 2016 because of exactly many D voters staying home who were disappointed that D politics wasn’t lefty enough for them.
Letting the good be the enemy of the perfect seems to be a D trait.
I think you got the proverb wrong.
Every recent election with an incumbent, especially a Democratic incumbent, starts with a bunch of random internet commenters (and some prominent assholes) insisting that “this time it’s different”, and we need to find a different candidate. And it’s always ridiculous, and always for clicks. It’s possible Biden will step down, or die, or something like that (God forbid). If so, Democrats will have to scramble for a replacement. But we have a gift – a good president as an incumbent, who already defeated his likely opponent. Yes, he’s old. Obama was Black and had a funny name. Clinton was a womanizer and possibly worse. Every president and candidate has some electoral weaknesses/flaws. I think there’s no reason to believe that this election is special and different in terms of our incumbent. Biden’s a good president, and a good campaigner, and he’s almost certainly the best realistic chance we have to beat Trump.
I keep asking, and people keep refusing to accept, what if Biden decides that HE doesn’t want to run, and HE thinks the ticket looks stronger with a younger Democrat at the top of it?
In that case, what’s the best scenario and timing, not “No, that doesn’t happen.” Or “We’re all dead then!! Trump gets elected, for sure!!!” I get that. You don’t want it to happen. I don’t particularly either. But if Biden were to make that decision, when and how should he make it?
One of the ideas I’ve floated have Biden getting the nomination, or getting all the votes needed for the nomination, which will almost certainly happen, and deciding after the last primary, or at the convention, to throw his support to Whoever. By “no primaries” I meant that in that scenario Whoever will not face a primary, not that they will magically disappear.
You already got that answer: the best timing was last year, if not earlier.
More than just a small percentage; the Democratic National Committee already has serious credibility problems with a significant portion of the notionally ‘Democratic’ contingent, especially younger voters who feel disenfranchised. A return to the backroom dealing of pre-1968 is just going to amplify the resentment and distrust that already exists due to the impact of the superdelegate system on non-Committee-favored candidates. And who is the Committee going to pick for broad appeal? Harris was polling in low single digits when she dropped out of the 2020 primary race; if you’re dumping Biden for age Warren isn’t that much younger (although she’s still sharp as a tack); Klobuchar, Gillibrand, Buttigiege…I’m sure they all have their boosters but none of them are obvious draws that will pull voters and donors on a national scale. They’d probably have better luck running Bernie Sanders because at least he understands how to be a rabble-rouser and get media attention to counter Trump.
As mediocre of a candidate as Biden is, he’s there because he was the best option for electability in 2020, and the DNC has not been grooming another Obama to pull from the shrubbery and command center stage. Without him, the Democratic bid essentially falls apart, because you can always count on the DNC to never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.
You have way more confidence in the electorate to make smart decisions than I am. Trump got over 74 million votes in 2020 with a record turnout-a high water mark for a presidential candidate (only eclipsed by Biden), and 5 million more than Obama got when he ‘trounced’ McCain in 2012. And this was after Trump managed to get about a million of Americans killed with his inept and negligent handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. All it takes for Trump to be reelected is for the DNC to alienate even a relatively narrow fraction of their assumed base, and they are real good at that, from ignoring rural voters to sidelining Stacey Abrams and the underrepresented base of black women voters she trawled in for the 2020 election.
Stranger
If I were Biden but wanted to step down, yet were convinced I were the most electable (D) candidate in 2024, I’d win the election but then step down right after inauguration in Jan-2025 - in fact, maybe in the inaugural address - and let Kamala be sworn in right after me. Two swearing-ins in the same inauguration!
Nah. The best timing was 1969, but unfortunately that was in the past so no. Allow me to clarify by adding, “Starting today…” at the beginning of my question.
Also answered. If the only option is that he decides not to run and he makes that decision today the scenario that maximizes the chances Democrats win in 2024 is that he announce that TODAY.
Then Democrats at least have a month or two to get declared, ramp up their campaigns, and start preparing for NH. Many will have to run as write-in candidates, but that isn’t the end of the world.
Newsom, in particular, has already started a bit of a shadow campaign in case this happens.
But if Biden truly decides today (or any day in the near future) that he can’t run or serve then he needs to announce it immediately. Both because it is the right thing to do and it will maximize the chances of beating Trump.
The only minor exception I would make is if something happens right before the DNC convention that convinces him not to run. At that point it is probably best that he accept the nomination and then work with the committee to nominate a replacement. I think in that case Democrats likely lose, unless the swap is due to Biden literally dying (or nearly dying) and Harris gets in on a wave of sympathy and support.
OK, thanks for that. It’s not as if TODAY doesn’t have downsides too. TODAY gives the GOP time to broadcast smears at Candidate Whoever for a year, for example. Also, sympathy for Biden (announcing his sudden ill health, as you suggest) tends to fade if you give it a year to settle in.