I could see Ms. Abrams as Candidate Whoever.
I have to think that the downside to having a candidate that wasn’t selected by the typical nominating process is significantly larger than the fact that the GOP will have a year to run against the replacement.
The bigger downside to having Biden drop out today is that the eventual Democratic nominee is likely to be a weaker candidate than Joe Biden is (even factoring in his age). I base that on the facts that (a) primary campaigns tend to weaken candidates compared to if they are unopposed and (b) Joe Biden has already beaten Trump and none of the other potential candidates have.
As someone who is absolutely certain they will vote for whomever the Democratic nominee is, I would be rather upset if it came out that Biden knew in November of 2023 that he wasn’t going to run again but withheld that information until after the primary campaign was over. To me that is fundamentally undemocratic, and not something that should be done for moral reasons regardless of the politically strategy involved.
The DNC would adjudicate her as ‘unelectable’ as a presidential candidate. And unfortunately, they’d probably be correct. It isn’t enough for a candidate to be smart, astute, well-spoken, and a good grassroots organizer; they also have to had broad appeal, especially in the “flyover country” that the DNC leadership likes to disdain.
Stranger
Which “flyover” states are the Dems counting on? Every candidate gains you votes in some places, loses some in others.
Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin…the same ones Clinton lost in 2016, and Biden won in 2020.
Gaining more popular votes in concentrated urban districts is meaningless if it doesn’t translate into more Electoral College votes overall.
Stranger
I think this is misunderstanding the nature of the problem of “old.” Biden’s age and experience is a strength, not a weakness. However, it does come with a substantial and increasing risk that impairment or death will interfere with his ability to do the job at all. He’s already exceeded the median / mean of the actuarial tables (←not sure how they work).
In other words, it’s not a character flaw like womanizing, and it’s not a stupid prejudice like objections to Obama. The reason that’s important is because it will be a different category of voters seizing on this objection. Republicans, sure, hypocritically—the age / health math seems much worse for Trump than it does for Biden—but the worry is not R voters, but D voter turnout. It’s very easy to stay home.
As far as the best timing to step down, I think that’s “a couple of weeks after Harris announces she won’t accept the VP slot again.” Nothing against her (and I’ve voted for her for CA offices), but she hasn’t communicated well about her current VP role, and if Biden steps down, it would have to be to annoint a clear and obvious successor. I don’t think annointing Harris would do the party any favors.
If Joe will have received some terrible medical diagnosis shortly before the inauguration, a stepping-down inaugural address makes sense. But if he knew he wanted to get out before the election, and kept on running out of some political calculation, your “if I were Biden” plan is disrespectful of the electorate. And when it would leak, Kamala would be damaged.
There is a process to replace a nominee who no longer wants to be president. If and when Biden no longer wants to be president, he should announce it right away out of respect for the American people, whether today, or ten months from now.
Republicans will laugh, but Biden is generally a man of principle capable of taking policy positions that poll poorly because he thinks they are right. In the case where he wants to step down, there would not really be a poll telling him what was best for the party — strategizing what was best for the party would be guesswork. So in that case he has every reason to do what is right. And what’s right is to share his decision, with the public, as soon as it is made.
As for the politics, the vast majority of voters have made up their minds about Biden-Trump for 2024. I’m a swing voter, and know I have. And, as a never-Trumper, the horse race polling has looked continuously bad to me for many months. If Biden decides to drop out, and doesn’t hide anything, the Democratic ticket will get a fresh look.
I guarantee you that the Republicans have already done the opposition research to relentlessly smear and probably destroy every single candidate that’s been mentioned as a Biden replacement, and they’d accomplish that pretty quickly once Biden stepped down.
And don’t forget that there’s a large portion of the electorate that will come out to vote AGAINST TRUMP no matter who the candidate is. Trump is a polarizing figure that drives turnout in both directions.
For me, it’s more about the positions and policies that the candidates represent, not the person. But I do wish Biden was a better salesman, because I largely see the presidency as a sales and marketing position. It’s not about developing policies, there are advisors and staff for that, it’s about presenting them in such a way that people get excited about them. It’s about convincing foreign leaders that your positions are the right ones, and getting their support. Ditto for business and industry leaders.
I’ve worked in sales, and it’s an elusive quality, but Biden really doesn’t have it,
If something happens to Biden after the Convention that prevents him from running, the Bylaws of the Democratic Party allow for the Democratic National Committee to fill the vacancy. Presumably, Biden’s name could remain on the ballot, as the people are voting for electors, and the electors can be instructed by the party to vote for the candidate of their choice.
The DNC replacing somebody has happened before - in 1972, when Thomas Eagleton withdrew from his VP spot on the ticket, and the DNC had to get together to select Sargent Shriver as his replacement.
At that: if Trump says some stupid stuff during a debate with Biden, I figure the press will largely just treat it with a dismissive c’mon-what-else-do-you-expect-from-this-bozo shrug — but imagine a debate where Biden screws up, oh, say, one sentence impressively enough to get that clip into heavy rotation. No, really: do your best Joe Biden impression, and absent-mindedly mangle a single sentence to the best of your ability, and ask yourself just how much would ensue in the way of breathless reaction pieces in the media as it gets replayed and replayed and replayed…
I don’t anticipate Trump agreeing to any debates.
So you mean what happens nowadays? Biden has accomplished a lot. He just needs to make sure that information percolates to the average voter.
AOC’s DOB is October 13, 1989. She could theoretically run next year, but I really think she’s more useful where she is now.
The way to do it:
Joe Biden campaigns and wins the nomination. Just before the convention he announces that due to sudden health deterioration he cannot run, and the Democrats go into an open convention where they have already prepped Biden’s successor and running mate to step in. I’m guessing Gavin Newsom and some moderate running mate from the midwest.
Everyone cheers the new candidates, a heartfelt thank you to Biden and Harris with a touching farewell video. The Democrats come out of the convention unified, reinvigorated with fresh new candidates who didn’t get torn town in a brutal primary race and can be presented fresh to the public.
In the meantime, manipulate Trump into making the campaign all about Biden’s age and feebleness, so when he resigns all of Trump’s arguments go away with him.
If Biden resigns now, Harris is President. If she is manoevered offstage, that will anger her supporters. And then it will be an open nomination with contenders airing each others’ dirty laundry in public. Who wants that?
That will only be viable if the sudden health deterioration is substantial and factual. If it comes out that Joe is really quitting for another reason, the Democrats will be seen by swing voters to be hopeless lying fools, and properly so.
There is no “they” here who can dictate. If Biden drops out between the primaries and the convention, we have an open convention in which almost all delegates vote for whom they think best. There likely would be multiple ballots, but not an extreme number, because, in modern times, a simple majority is enough to secure the nomination – not 2/3 as in the old, old days of long conventions.
Trump is already trying to make Biden’s supposed feebleness a big issue, but the Democrats have no way to manipulate Trump into doing it.
Is this anyone’s business but Biden’s and his family’s? A two-sentence statement from him, the first stating that his health will prevent him in good conscience from seeking a second term and the second requesting that his privacy be respected, should do the trick. When asked, he refers the questioners back to his two-sentence statement. End of story–all else is speculation and gossip.
A lot of voters like to feel they know how the president is doing, and Biden’s current policy is to let them see his medical test numbers, as seen here:
2023 Report with Ejection fraction, meds, etc.
I think it would hurt the Democrats to treat a medical disaster as a mystery. And I don’t think Joe would want it to feel like a mystery. Any rumors about him faking illness due to bad polling should and would be quashed with legitimate medical details.
I think more like Harris, but the date it right.
Look, we have a choice- Biden, who has been a damn good president- or trump, who will try to turn us into a fascist nation. Your choice. There aint no choice C.
Now, if trump dies, then we can discuss Biden handing over the reins to Harris.
So, as to not fight the hypothetical-
A short time after trump is OUT- dead, whatever. Push Harris, but sure let Newsom, etc get a shot.
Which really describes trump more than Biden.
Out here in CA, they have been working HARD to attack Newsom. There aint no known choice that the GOP (and the Kremlin) isnt ready for and hasnt been working on.
Yep. They were ready for Sanders.
Not degraded at all.
They did in 2016, after Sanders ect lost.
Nope. And the DNC doesn’t have that kind of power.
The only one currently unelectable in the midwest,rust best etc is Mayor Pete.
True. Also true of a small but vital proportion of Independents. If Biden were to drop out, the earlier the better. The nominee should have been tested by the primary process, as Joe was in 2020.
if Joe had to drop out for major medical reasons, voters would understand that facing primary voters had been impossible. But a deliberate end run to avoid primaries would significantly hurt the newly-named Democratic ticket.
I think Biden would agree with me on the need for an early decision — and he has made one.
I’ve been a big fan of hers. Just today, however, I had the thought that she ran into a terrible bit of bad luck for an up and coming Democrat. She has the misfortune of being from the last state with a non-insane Republican Party*. Had it not been for that, she’d probably be much better positioned for a presidential run.
*. From what I can tell, even the blue state Republican Parties have gone insane. I’m not sure why, but Georgia Republicans have somehow avoided going batshit insane.