If you ask me, the time to make the move, if at all, is on or after January 21, 2027. This allows the Vice-President to serve the remainder of the term and still be allowed to be re-elected in both 2028 and 2032.
You assume (presume?) re-election in 2024, and none of the outrage that is so confidently predicted elsewhere in this thread for the American pipple to express at any sort of gamesmanship, hoodwinking, bamboozling, or other shenanigans (malarky?)
Exactly. Did we forget all the debate about super-delegates and how the DNC and HRC were conspiring against Bernie? If the DNC said “Nevermind the primaries here is our candidate” a lot more than one wing of the party would be pissed.
I don’t really get the hypothetical. Biden is obviously able to do the job. If the concern is he can’t win the election, stepping down in 2023 isn’t going to help.
He’s in his 80s. If a Republican president were in his 80s, and I detested his policies , as i surely would, it would be an objection I’d feel was valid to raise.
I support Ɓiden for re-election but can understand why Republicans are raising the issue of his advanced age, and why some younger voters might be persuaded by that argument.
The hypothetical stems from the thought that Biden himself might want to step down. If so, how might he best do that at this point, and when would be the best moment to announce his decision?
I can see swing voters having low expectations about a Harris presidency and then being pleasantly surprised. However, there is a strong time-for-a-change dynamic in national American politics, and the power of incumbency is generally declining*, so gaming your way to having the identical president for more than two terms is pretty hopeless.
Three presidencies in a row, with no completive primary season, would look bad for the Democrats, and even be damaging for Harris. If she is going to be a future president elected in her own right, she needs to show herself to be a strong primary campaigner.
The first two state primary filing dates were November 10 and November 14, 2023. So the time for Biden to step down, due to being a November 2024 underdog, is officially past. Going forward, the time to step down is if and when he doesn’t feel up to the job. Since powerful people like power, he might not recognize this. But if he ever does, I hope there will be some not-overly-painful visible evidence of the need, such as falling asleep at a televised meeting, so open-minded voters will realize Joe resigned for his stated reasons, not gamesmanship.
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* This is a House of Representatives research. Because there isn’t a statistically significant sample of presidential races, legislative races may be the best evidence we can find. Weak evidence? Sure. That’s why we have legitimate debate.
The issue here is that such a video is easily faked. Of course, those who believe it or don’t will already be set in their ways, so I don’t think it would be persuasive.
But then they conveniently ignore trumps advanced age.
I think, in the context of the thread, we all understand that the best time for Trump to step down is “anytime before inauguration.” Both Trump and Biden are beyond the age where one can be sanguine that the next four years are more likely fine than not, so it’s not a question of choosing between them in that regard—except for the worry that some voters will not perceive Trump’s age as a handicap, since it’s honestly not as significant for him as his other eleventy-three defects, whereas Biden doesn’t really have many drawbacks other than Democrats’ reasonable disagreements on policy positions, and Biden’s are known quantities.
The best moment would have been before he announced he was running in 2024. Since he did not do so, you might want to change the hypothetical.
A lot of people have a lot of suggestions that are suitable for hypotheticals of their own.
I answered that fairly- once trump is no longer a candidate.
If the GOP picks Haley or DeSantis- Biden can retire. Harris can beat either, and I bet several others can too.
Biden and Trump are both known qualities. Trump’s pretty Teflon so far, and most of Biden’s weaknesses are based on his age. A new candidate would be destroyed unless they were remarkable. If the Democrats had someone like that, they’d have unveiled them by now.
They’ve got a dozen or more strong candidates. But it’s considered rude, egotistical, and divisive to run against a sitting president seeking a second term.
I don’t know who’s on your list, but assuming Biden stepped down in a good time and began backing them as a candidate, could they beat Trump? Assume Harris isn’t in the picture for some hypothetical reason, just to simplify things.
I think Trump has a clear ceiling, around 45% of the vote. Any Democrat at all, including you and me, has an excellent chance of beating 45%.
I’d love to see that list, and so, I’m sure, would many other Democrats who would prefer someone actuarily more likely than Biden to make it through 2029 even assuming they could get elected. I can come up with three or maybe four under the most generous definition of “strong candidates”, half of whom who haven’t even given any indication that they’re actually interested in running for President.
I respect your optimism if not your betting sensibilities.
Stranger
Could Stacey Abrams beat Trump, for example? Maybe. But we need her where she is now, and I don’t think she’d want the job either.
But it would be a no chance run vs trump. Only Biden can beat trump. No one else. Get rid of trump, and sure.
Nope.
Well then. Assuming the Dems nominate someone more popular than you or me (e.g. Biden) it seems Trump has no chance to win. This is a relief.
Well, of course not. That would be the gauchest of moves, to announce your interest in a job you have no intention of applying for yet. If Biden pulled out tomorrow, you wouldn’t be able to fit all the candidates into Yankee Stadium. Half of the candidates who ran for the nomination in 2020 are still viable, and there are many good ones who’ve entered the running since then.