No. Let’s put this rational/irrational dichotomy to bed once and for all. There are indeed degrees of irrationality. Bayesian statistics works both ways.
To put it in simple terms, believing that aliens may have visited the earth in the past is less irrational than believing George Bush is a space alien because, there is much less actual evidence regarding the four-billion odd years of earth history than there is regarding the fifty-odd years of George Bush’s history. We consider it highly unlikely that aliens have visited earth based on circumstantial evidence. We also recognize that much of this evidence is itself based on extremely inexact estimates.
We have, however, direct evidence regarding George Bush and his life. Thus, it should take a great deal of very compelling direct evidence demonstrating that George Bush is a space alien to convince us to switch to believing that George Bush is a space alien. By contrast it would take proportionally less direct evidence to convince us that aliens have visited earth sometime in the last four billion years.
It follows that while it is irrational to believe that space aliens have visited earth in the past, it is more irrational to believe that George Bush is an alien because one must discount/re-interpret much more evidence to do so.
Michael Jackson is a much closer call.
With respect to literal belief in the bible, it’s somewhat more complex. There is no disputing that the bible is evidence for the existance of god, etc. It is, after all, supposed to be a record of publicly witnessed miracles. You can argue that this evidence is outweighed by other evidence, but that’s a different debate.
Nor can you argue that the bible must be rejected a priori because it purports to be evidence of supernatural events. That’s simply circular reasoning.
Here’s where the degrees of irrationality comes in. The new testament says, “Here’s a record of a bunch of supernatural events that prove our hero is god. Having proven that he is god, he also says the following . . . These events may sound unlikely but he’s already proven he’s god by doing all these miracles so you’d better just believe it.”
Ok, as far as it goes. While, on balance, after weighing all the evidence, it may be “irrational” to believe the new testament to be true, it is not irrational to conclude that if the new testament is true, that the supernatural is real and that all these other unlikely things will happen just like it says.
It is, however, seriously irrational to depart from that framework and just decide, based on something you invented in your own head, that Justin Timberlake should be worshipped as the second coming of Jesus.
