I say we’ll have an official President in 2 weeks – November 16.
What do y’all say?
Btw, this is partly a test of James Surowiecki’s theories in “The Wisdom of Crowds”.
If other dopers decide to play along, which I hope you will, I’ll tally up the average when the smoke is cleared, and will recognize the winner(s) on this thread, and see if the crowd was smarter than its parts.
When do consider the election to be final? Would it be when the votes are tallied the first time, when the opponent conceeds for the third or fourth time, or when the Supreme Court renders their decision?
I don’t know if you’re being serious or not, but the answer, unfortunately, is “I don’t know.” It’s too early to tell what the lawyers are going to wind up doing, or who the deciding body ultimately will be. But at some point, there will be an uncontested President-elect. On that day, by whatever means the decision is reached, the pool will close.
I think the polls are missing a lot of things, and that we’re going to get an electoral surprise. I say it will all be over sometime in the wee hours of the morning of Nov. 3. There might be some recount rumblings, but it will be very clear that it’s all over within hours of the last poll closing.
You want more precision? OK, just to make sure I get my shot at the fabulous prizes being offered, I’ll say that the loser will concede (and not retract the concession later) at 3:00 a.m. EST on Nov. 3.
I predict that the election results will not be final until… um, say November 10 or so. Given the last one and the tight race this time, I don’t think we’ll go to bed on the night of November 2nd knowing whom our next President will be.
Does anyone else find the auto-logout time ridiculously short on this board?
Don’t go muddying up the issue with facts!
Ok, since the first posts, several scenarios have occured to me which could throw a wrench in my definition.
So… for the purposes of this pool, the EC need not have cast its votes (unless… see below). We’ll have an “uncontested President-elect” when the results of the popular vote are known in sufficient states to determine a winning margin in the EC and no material challenges are being considered by the courts or in the process of being filed by parties with standing to do so.
Once a state makes its results official, by whatever standards and means it uses, those results will be deemed “known”.
“Material” will be defined as “having the potential to change the outcome”. So challenges which would affect local or state results will not be considered material if they could not possibly change the national results, unless sufficient numbers of these are in play to… you get the idea.
The race will not be considered “contested” merely if Bush refuses to change his mind about being President.
Here’s the kicker. I don’t know how the EC works state by state. I have heard that not all states require their electors to follow the popular vote. If that’s the case in a swing state, Blalron becomes the odds-on favorite, unless legal wrangling postpones their voting date. Can anyone confirm/deny (with cite)?
I say that the loser makes a concession speech at 10:00 am on November 3rd.
There will, however, be widespread allegations of voter fraud and/or miscounting; paper headlines on November 4th will be “Is State X the new Florida?” (um, unless, of course, “state X” is Florida. Then… hooboy.) Multiple interest groups/provate citizens will file lawsuits requesting a recount. However, neither the national parties, nor the candidate’s campaigns, will be directly involved, other than the winner’s campaign accusing lawsuit filers of trying to turn 2004 into another 2000.
The lawsuits will be dismissed one by one, or, perhaps, the recounts will proceed, but without materially changing the outcome, for at least a month. The original Nov. 3 concession is never withdrawn, and we’ll gradually realize that the man who looked like the original winner really is.
Procedural question: I had the impression that, in the normal course of events, “official” results took a few days to a few weeks to be announced, as certified vote totals made their way through the state’s bureauocracy. Perhaps I’m wrong, but if I’m correct, doesn’t that skew the results in the sense that the outcome of the 1996 wouldn’t have been “known” for a relatively long time after Dole conceded?